EPA splits

Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.

Seasons
to Weeks to
2026 through week 5

Home / away — offense

Click a column to sort; hover a cell for success rate and standard error. Click a team for every split at once.

TeamAll plays HomeAwayNeutral site
League +0.00610030 +0.0044748+0.0104758-0.015524
BUF +0.204249 +0.177194+0.30055—
SF +0.184288 +0.306166-0.17757+0.19065
DET +0.176342 +0.075140+0.246202—
KC +0.161257 +0.161146+0.161111—
DAL +0.158323 +0.104114+0.232136+0.10473
BAL +0.132320 +0.115119+0.117137+0.19664
JAX +0.108305 +0.248115+0.038118+0.00172
CAR +0.090281 +0.211141-0.032140—
CIN +0.068317 +0.022139+0.103178—
NE +0.045332 +0.195125-0.045207—
CHI +0.038377 +0.037233+0.039144—
LV +0.021331 +0.022145+0.021186—
LA +0.006285 +0.24258+0.007167-0.22660
HOU +0.003329 -0.016211+0.036118—
NYG -0.008340 +0.053194-0.088146—
WAS -0.009331 +0.034127+0.052140-0.22664
ARI -0.013345 -0.109122+0.040223—
GB -0.017309 +0.121125-0.110184—
PIT -0.024321 +0.035182-0.101139—
NYJ -0.025301 -0.129141+0.067160—
ATL -0.028316 -0.262133+0.143183—
IND -0.038325 -0.162125+0.098136-0.08664
NO -0.041347 -0.128193+0.069154—
DEN -0.065302 +0.064124-0.155178—
CLE -0.067305 +0.054129-0.156176—
SEA -0.070307 -0.176170+0.062137—
TB -0.092322 -0.181196+0.046126—
MIN -0.104314 -0.006136-0.178178—
PHI -0.111302 -0.137114-0.086126-0.11262
MIA -0.122291 -0.086137-0.153154—
TEN -0.140288 -0.164166-0.107122—
LAC -0.192328 -0.287188-0.064140—

Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.