EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
Home / away — offense
Click a column to sort; hover a cell for success rate and standard error. Click a team for every split at once.
| Team | All plays | Home | Away | Neutral site |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| League | +0.00610030 | +0.0044748 | +0.0104758 | -0.015524 |
| BUF | +0.204249 | +0.177194 | +0.30055 | — |
| SF | +0.184288 | +0.306166 | -0.17757 | +0.19065 |
| DET | +0.176342 | +0.075140 | +0.246202 | — |
| KC | +0.161257 | +0.161146 | +0.161111 | — |
| DAL | +0.158323 | +0.104114 | +0.232136 | +0.10473 |
| BAL | +0.132320 | +0.115119 | +0.117137 | +0.19664 |
| JAX | +0.108305 | +0.248115 | +0.038118 | +0.00172 |
| CAR | +0.090281 | +0.211141 | -0.032140 | — |
| CIN | +0.068317 | +0.022139 | +0.103178 | — |
| NE | +0.045332 | +0.195125 | -0.045207 | — |
| CHI | +0.038377 | +0.037233 | +0.039144 | — |
| LV | +0.021331 | +0.022145 | +0.021186 | — |
| LA | +0.006285 | +0.24258 | +0.007167 | -0.22660 |
| HOU | +0.003329 | -0.016211 | +0.036118 | — |
| NYG | -0.008340 | +0.053194 | -0.088146 | — |
| WAS | -0.009331 | +0.034127 | +0.052140 | -0.22664 |
| ARI | -0.013345 | -0.109122 | +0.040223 | — |
| GB | -0.017309 | +0.121125 | -0.110184 | — |
| PIT | -0.024321 | +0.035182 | -0.101139 | — |
| NYJ | -0.025301 | -0.129141 | +0.067160 | — |
| ATL | -0.028316 | -0.262133 | +0.143183 | — |
| IND | -0.038325 | -0.162125 | +0.098136 | -0.08664 |
| NO | -0.041347 | -0.128193 | +0.069154 | — |
| DEN | -0.065302 | +0.064124 | -0.155178 | — |
| CLE | -0.067305 | +0.054129 | -0.156176 | — |
| SEA | -0.070307 | -0.176170 | +0.062137 | — |
| TB | -0.092322 | -0.181196 | +0.046126 | — |
| MIN | -0.104314 | -0.006136 | -0.178178 | — |
| PHI | -0.111302 | -0.137114 | -0.086126 | -0.11262 |
| MIA | -0.122291 | -0.086137 | -0.153154 | — |
| TEN | -0.140288 | -0.164166 | -0.107122 | — |
| LAC | -0.192328 | -0.287188 | -0.064140 | — |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.