Track Record
Full transparency on all alerts, CLV tracking, and performance metrics.
Polling regime
Showing only picks made under burst_2026_09 — 4-hourly baseline plus 1-minute polling in the hour before kickoff. 85 settled so far. The previous era's 12,821 settled picks are kept but excluded — at 30–60 minute resolution, 70% of them quoted a price that had already vanished by the next poll, which is not a price a real tool could have taken. Show all regimes.
How to read this
This is the as-shown record: every pick displayed to users (deduped to one bet per pick at the best available price), with no retroactive filtering. It covers a single, mostly-playoff regime and is not a proven edge — recent windows have run around break-even to slightly negative, and the ROI confidence intervals span zero. All CLV figures use the fixed no-vig (devig) CLV; the legacy price-based CLV was discredited and no longer appears anywhere on this page. Judge us on forward results, not any single window. A current-ruleset (would-have-been) view is available, clearly labeled — it excludes picks that were shown, so it is not the record.
Recent Performance
Last 7 Days
CLV+ Rate
100.00%
Avg Edge
+1.53%
ROI
-100.00%
Record
0-1
Win Rate
0.00%
Last 30 Days
CLV+ Rate
80.30%
Avg Edge
+1.09%
ROI
-65.80%
Record
3-12
Win Rate
20.00%
CLV+ Rate
80.30%
Beat the closing line (no-vig devig CLV, reliable closes only)
Average CLV
+1.09%
Edge vs closing line
ROI (90d)
-65.80%
95% CI [-102.1, -29.5]%
All-time -65.80% (n=15, not significant)
Total Alerts
77
15 settled
Win Rate
20.00%
3W - 12L
Track Record
Verified
77 alerts tracked
CLV Distribution
Distribution of no-vig (devig) Closing Line Value across alerts with a reliably captured close — the same CLV definition as every other number on this page. Positive CLV indicates we got a better price than the fair closing line.
Performance by Sport
| Sport | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nfl | 66 | 87.50% | +1.59% | 40.00% | 2-3 | -36.45% |
| tennis_wta | 1 | 0.00% | -14.91% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| mlb | 10 | 16.70% | -1.57% | 10.00% | 1-9 | -80.48% |
Performance by Bet Type
| Bet Type | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 46 | 84.80% | +1.51% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| Rush Yds | 5 | 100.00% | +2.39% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| Spread | 4 | 100.00% | +0.12% | 0.00% | 0-4 | -100.00% |
| Reception Yds | 7 | 85.70% | +1.46% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| Moneyline | 3 | 66.70% | -4.18% | 100.00% | 2-0 | +58.87% |
| Pass Tds | 2 | 100.00% | +2.14% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| Pass Yds | 1 | 100.00% | +3.16% | 0.00% | 0-0 | +0.00% |
| Total | 9 | 0.00% | -1.88% | 11.10% | 1-8 | -78.31% |
Performance by Detector Source
Compares alerts produced by each detector. market_consensus
is the live line-shopping detector. nhl_stacking_v3 is the
NHL regular-season stacking model — it is in observation mode with
no live alerts and no live record yet (it starts
emitting when the NHL regular season opens); any performance figure
attached to it elsewhere is a backtest, not live results, and it will
only appear in this table once it has real settled alerts. Other model
sources visible here (e.g. nba_model_v2,
nhl_model_v1) are sunset — historical alerts only, no new
picks since 2026-05-30.
| Source | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| market_consensus | 77 | 80.30% | +1.09% | 20.00% | 3-12 | -65.80% |
Performance by Movement Signal
| Movement Class | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| toward_pick | 24-24 | 50.00% | -16.38% |
| away_large | 9-1 | 90.00% | +55.55% |
| away_small | 0-3 | 0.00% | -100.00% |
| stable | 84-163 | 34.00% | -31.77% |
| RLM Status | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| No RLM | 109-185 | 37.10% | -28.38% |
| RLM | 8-6 | 57.10% | -3.46% |
Alert Log
Showing 77 most recent alerts| Date | Sport | Type | Selection | Book | Alert Odds | Close Odds | CLV | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/17/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Dawson Knox Under 1.5
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
|
BetMGM | -140 | -158 | +1.98% | +1.39% | NONE |
| 09/17/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 4.5
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
|
BetMGM | +125 | +110 | +2.55% | +1.23% | NONE |
| 09/17/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Sam LaPorta Over 4.5
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
|
Bovada | +110 | -101 | +1.91% | +1.34% | NONE |
| 09/17/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
Sione Vaki Over 5.5
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
|
FanDuel | +108 | -106 | +1.46% | +3.52% | NONE |
| 09/17/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Jameson Williams Over 3.5
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
|
DraftKings | -144 | -158 | +0.96% | +1.88% | NONE |
| 09/15/26 | nfl | Spread |
Denver Broncos +2
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
|
BetMGM | -105 | -111 | +0.24% | +1.14% | LOSS |
| 09/14/26 | nfl | Receptions |
RJ Harvey Under 2.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
|
BetMGM | -115 | -125 | +1.06% | +1.67% | NONE |
| 09/14/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Tyquan Thornton Under 1.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
|
DraftKings | -139 | -154 | +0.85% | +2.45% | NONE |
| 09/14/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Travis Kelce Under 4.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
|
Bovada | -150 | -170 | +1.62% | +1.97% | NONE |
| 09/14/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Kenneth Walker III Under 3.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
|
DraftKings | -146 | -168 | +2.66% | +1.01% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Cam Skattebo Over 15.5
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
|
DraftKings | -111 | -125 | +2.28% | +1.14% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Moneyline |
Minnesota Vikings ML
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
|
DraftKings | -125 | -140 | +1.74% | +1.57% | WIN |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
KaVontae Turpin Over 5.5
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
|
FanDuel | -102 | -113 | +1.87% | +1.2% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Malachi Fields Under 2.5
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
|
DraftKings | -150 | -172 | +2.38% | +1.25% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
KaVontae Turpin Under 1.5
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
|
DraftKings | -224 | -256 | +1.50% | +1.63% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Theo Johnson Under 1.5
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
|
Bovada | +100 | -113 | +2.34% | +1.25% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Iryna Shymanovich ML
Lea Ma @ Iryna Shymanovich
|
Bovada | -185 | -108 | -14.91% | +3.39% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Spread |
Cleveland Browns +9
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
|
BetMGM | -105 | -114 | N/A | +0.82% | LOSS |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Josh Downs Over 4.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
|
FanDuel | +124 | +109 | +2.57% | +1.26% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Keon Coleman Over 11.5
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
|
DraftKings | -108 | -131 | +2.21% | +4.37% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Kayshon Boutte Under 1.5
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
|
DraftKings | +125 | +112 | +1.89% | +1.65% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Tommy Tremble Under 1.5
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
|
BetMGM | -125 | -156 | +1.86% | +5.59% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Chase Brown Over 3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
BetMGM | +105 | -111 | +2.37% | +2.62% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Kenyon Sadiq Under 1.5
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
|
BetMGM | +100 | -122 | +0.68% | +7.54% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Pass Tds |
Lamar Jackson Under 1.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
|
Fanatics | -115 | -132 | +2.18% | +2.02% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Jonathan Taylor Under 2.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
|
BetMGM | +105 | -108 | +2.39% | +1.35% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Dalton Kincaid Under 3.5
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
|
Bovada | -110 | -112 | -0.22% | +1.13% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
James Cook Under 2.5
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
|
Bovada | +110 | -106 | +2.88% | +1.78% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
Baker Mayfield Over 15.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
Fanatics | -110 | -126 | +2.47% | +1.51% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Andrei Iosivas Under 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
BetMGM | -125 | -141 | +2.04% | +1.44% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Harold Fannin Jr. Over 36.5
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
|
DraftKings | -109 | -129 | +2.15% | +3.42% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Pass Yds |
Jared Goff Under 258.5
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
|
FanDuel | -113 | -132 | +3.16% | +1.14% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Devaughn Vele Over 39.5
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
|
FanDuel | -113 | -129 | +2.59% | +1.14% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Pass Tds |
Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
|
Fanatics | -130 | -146 | +2.10% | +1.13% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Parker Washington Over 4.5
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
|
BetMGM | +125 | +109 | +2.43% | +1.93% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Samaje Perine Under 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
BetMGM | -185 | -208 | +0.42% | +2.97% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Emeka Egbuka Under 4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
DraftKings | -119 | -138 | +2.03% | +2.61% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Jahan Dotson Over 1.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
|
DraftKings | -111 | -112 | -1.65% | +3.13% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Bijan Robinson Under 4.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
|
FanDuel | -125 | -140 | +1.97% | +1.27% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Rico Dowdle Over 1.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
|
FanDuel | -148 | -158 | +0.96% | +0.9% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Dawson Knox Over 1.5
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
|
Bovada | +110 | +102 | +0.20% | +3.11% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Dalton Schultz Over 3.5
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
|
BetMGM | -105 | -110 | -0.77% | +3.31% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Woody Marks Over 1.5
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
|
BetMGM | +105 | -101 | +0.48% | +1.78% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Tetairoa McMillan Over 4.5
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
|
DraftKings | -105 | -127 | +3.27% | +2.51% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Chuba Hubbard Over 1.5
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
|
FanDuel | -148 | -169 | +1.50% | +2.44% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Luther Burden III Under 4.5
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
|
FanDuel | +112 | -103 | +1.67% | +3.54% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Xavier Legette Over 1.5
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
|
BetMGM | -175 | -171 | -1.52% | +1.36% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Darren Waller Over 1.5
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
|
BetMGM | -140 | -146 | -1.10% | +3.19% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
Joe Burrow Over 7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
FanDuel | -113 | -128 | +2.10% | +1.64% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Tee Higgins Under 4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
|
FanDuel | +112 | -101 | +2.46% | +1.15% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
Parker Washington Over 52.5
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
|
FanDuel | -113 | -129 | +1.75% | +2.54% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Sam LaPorta Over 3.5
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions
|
FanDuel | -172 | -193 | +1.66% | +1.36% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Wan'Dale Robinson Under 4.5
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
|
DraftKings | -117 | -131 | +2.01% | +1.28% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Gunnar Helm Under 2.5
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
|
BetMGM | -120 | -145 | +3.95% | +1.1% | NONE |
| 09/13/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Adonai Mitchell Over 2.5
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
|
BetMGM | -115 | -131 | +2.01% | +1.99% | NONE |
| 09/12/26 | nfl | Moneyline |
Pittsburgh Steelers ML
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
|
DraftKings | -265 | -286 | +0.64% | +0.86% | WIN |
| 09/10/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Kyren Williams Over 1.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
|
Bovada | -135 | -156 | +1.51% | +3.04% | NONE |
| 09/10/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Davante Adams Over 4.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
|
BetMGM | +120 | -105 | +3.70% | +4.0% | NONE |
| 09/10/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Deebo Samuel Over 2.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
|
FanDuel | -136 | -161 | +3.41% | +0.99% | NONE |
| 09/10/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Terrance Ferguson Over 1.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
|
FanDuel | -144 | -169 | +1.98% | +2.74% | NONE |
| 09/10/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Puka Nacua Over 7.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
|
Bovada | +130 | +118 | -0.39% | +5.64% | NONE |
| 09/10/26 | nfl | Rush Yds |
Puka Nacua Under 2.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
|
DraftKings | -116 | -140 | +4.05% | +0.95% | NONE |
| 09/09/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
George Holani Under 11.5
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
|
DraftKings | -107 | -114 | +0.33% | +2.14% | NONE |
| 09/09/26 | nfl | Receptions |
A.J. Brown Under 5.5
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
|
FanDuel | -125 | -132 | -0.54% | +2.98% | NONE |
| 09/09/26 | nfl | Reception Yds |
DeMario Douglas Over 19.5
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
|
DraftKings | -114 | -113 | -1.13% | +1.5% | NONE |
| 09/09/26 | nfl | Receptions |
Rashid Shaheed Over 2.5
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
|
DraftKings | +107 | -103 | +1.45% | +1.79% | NONE |
| 09/09/26 | nfl | Spread |
Seattle Seahawks -3.5
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
|
Fanatics | +100 | -111 | N/A | +2.53% | LOSS |
| 09/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
|
BetMGM | +100 | +104 | N/A | +2.7% | LOSS |
| 09/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
FanDuel | +102 | -106 | N/A | +1.04% | LOSS |
| 09/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
FanDuel | -105 | -105 | -2.40% | +2.09% | LOSS |
| 09/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
|
FanDuel | +100 | +101 | -1.81% | +3.18% | LOSS |
| 09/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.0
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
|
Bovada | +105 | +109 | -2.43% | +7.14% | LOSS |
| 09/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
FanDuel | +100 | -110 | N/A | +3.02% | LOSS |
| 09/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
Bovada | -105 | -102 | -2.19% | +0.8% | WIN |
| 09/01/26 | mlb | Spread |
San Diego Padres -1.5
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
|
Bovada | +125 | +118 | +0.01% | +1.47% | LOSS |
| 09/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
|
FanDuel | +102 | -102 | -0.59% | +3.08% | LOSS |
| 09/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
|
FanDuel | +100 | -111 | N/A | +1.52% | LOSS |
How We Calculate EV
We use Pinnacle as our sharp benchmark and calculate true probabilities through multiplicative devigging. Our edge is the difference between our calculated true probability and the implied probability at soft books.
Read Full Methodology