Injury burden — 2026 Week 1
Counting bodies is useless — a team carries about nine players on injured reserve in a normal week but only ~2.6 full-time-equivalents' worth of usage. Each absence here is weighted by the share of snaps that player took in 2025.
| Team | FTE lost | QB WAR out | Injured | Susp. | No history | Biggest absences | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 5.59 | — | 15 | — | 5 | Coby Bryant DB 96% · Noah Sewell LB 72% · Kyler Gordon DB 67% · Nephi Sewell LB 66% · Nikola Kalinic TE 62% · Jaylon Jones DB 58% |
| 2 | SF | 5.48 | — | 14 | — | 3 | Ricky Pearsall WR 78% · Mykel Williams DL 67% · Sam Okuayinonu DL 62% · Victor Dimukeje DL 54% · Isaac Guerendo RB 49% · Christian Kirk WR 49% |
| 3 | HOU | 4.42 | — | 12 | — | 5 | Braden Smith OL 92% · M.J. Stewart DB 75% · E.J. Speed LB 70% · Dylan Horton DL 58% · Jayden Higgins WR 57% · Ja'Marcus Ingram DB 55% |
| 4 | DET | 4.24 | — | 8 | — | 2 | Brian Branch DB 96% · Kerby Joseph DB 88% · Cade Mays OL 84% · Damone Clark LB 69% · Isiah Pacheco RB 52% · Giovanni Manu OL 37% |
| 5 | NO | 4.12 | — | 13 | 1 | 5 | Jaylan Ford LB 77% · Dillon Radunz OL 72% · Bryan Bresee DL 70% · Devin Neal RB 45% · Ty Chandler RB 38% · Mason Tipton WR 35% |
| 6 | CAR | 3.98 | — | 8 | — | 2 | Ikem Ekwonu OL 100% · Tershawn Wharton DL 72% · Nic Scourton LB 68% · Bam Martin-Scott LB 67% · Brady Christensen OL 58% · Trevor Etienne RB 34% |
| 7 | ATL | 3.62 | — | 9 | 1 | 4 | DeAngelo Malone LB 82% · JD Bertrand LB 82% · Darren Hall DB 59% · Jalon Walker LB 50% · Beaux Collins WR 44% · Trey Sermon RB 44% |
| 8 | TEN | 3.57 | — | 9 | — | 3 | Kendell Brooks DB 88% · Dorian Mausi LB 72% · Joshua Williams DB 70% · Jaylen Harrell LB 66% · Tanoh Kpassagnon DL 36% · Andre James OL 24% |
| 9 | LAC | 3.17 | — | 7 | — | 2 | Branson Taylor OL 100% · Tyler Biadasz OL 96% · Denzel Perryman LB 52% · Scott Matlock RB 42% · Kyle Kennard LB 27% |
| 10 | GB | 3.05 | — | 9 | — | 3 | Johnathan Baldwin DB 99% · Micah Parsons LB 78% · Collin Oliver LB 46% · Luke Musgrave TE 40% · Jordon Riley DL 24% · Savion Williams WR 18% |
| 11 | MIN | 2.88 | — | 9 | 1 | 3 | Tyler Batty LB 88% · Michael Jurgens OL 42% · Ben Yurosek TE 41% · Jamal Adams LB 40% · Taki Taimani DL 34% · Jeshaun Jones WR 30% |
| 12 | WAS | 2.81 | — | 8 | 1 | 3 | Laremy Tunsil OL 89% · Trey Amos DB 78% · Jer'Zhan Newton DL 38% · Jeremy McNichols RB 34% · Drake Jackson LB 26% · T.J. Maguranyanga LB 16% |
| 13 | CLE | 2.74 | — | 10 | — | 3 | Dillon Gabriel QB 56% · -0.5 WAR · Alex Wright DL 55% · Edefuan Ulofoshio LB 50% · Kalia Davis DL 46% · Jamari Thrash WR 35% · Elijah Chatman DL 29% |
| 14 | ARI | 2.63 | — | 10 | — | 4 | James Conner RB 50% · Tip Reiman TE 48% · Trey Benson RB 48% · Xavier Weaver WR 44% · Joey Blount DB 37% · Zachary Carter DL 36% |
| 15 | DAL | 2.53 | — | 7 | — | 3 | Tyler Smith OL 98% · Marist Liufau LB 75% · Princeton Fant TE 48% · Matt Hennessy OL 32% |
| 16 | NYG | 2.52 | — | 8 | — | 2 | Roy Robertson-Harris DL 57% · Calvin Austin III WR 54% · Rico Payton DB 43% · Gunner Olszewski WR 37% · Korie Black DB 34% · Jarrick Bernard-Converse DB 27% |
| 17 | LV | 2.50 | — | 10 | — | 6 | Chigozie Anusiem DB 76% · Carter Runyon TE 66% · Brennan Jackson LB 60% · Justin Shorter WR 49% |
| 18 | BUF | 2.11 | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB 60% · Dorian Strong DB 59% · Tyrell Shavers WR 57% · Phidarian Mathis DL 36% |
| 19 | NYJ | 1.97 | — | 9 | — | 5 | Mykal Walker LB 82% · Kingsley Jonathan DL 50% · Tre Brown DB 38% · Tyler Baron LB 27% |
| 20 | KC | 1.88 | — | 9 | — | 4 | Chris Oladokun QB 75% · Ethan Downs LB 69% · Omarr Norman-Lott DL 26% · C.J. Hanson OL 16% · Jimmy Holiday WR 2% |
| 21 | NE | 1.83 | — | 8 | — | 4 | Brenden Schooler DB 78% · Julian Hill TE 56% · Bryce Baringer P 32% · Marcus Bryant OL 18% |
| 22 | SEA | 1.65 | — | 8 | — | 3 | Zach Charbonnet RB 48% · Jake Bobo WR 46% · Robbie Ouzts RB 31% · Amari Kight OL 20% · Mason Richman OL 19% |
| 23 | JAX | 1.64 | — | 7 | — | 4 | Patrick Mekari OL 91% · Jared Bartlett LB 62% · Sam Mustipher OL 11% |
| 24 | IND | 1.51 | — | 5 | 1 | 2 | Cam Taylor-Britt DB 61% · Cameron Mitchell DB 45% · Coleman Owen WR 31% · Will Mallory TE 14% |
| 25 | TB | 1.42 | — | 5 | — | 2 | Josh Hayes DB 82% · Mohamed Kamara LB 45% · David Sills WR 15% |
| 26 | MIA | 1.20 | — | 8 | — | 4 | Kenneth Grant DL 52% · Storm Duck DB 35% · Ben Sims TE 26% · Cole Turner TE 8% |
| 27 | PHI | 1.11 | — | 5 | — | 2 | Grant Calcaterra TE 52% · Andre' Sam DB 33% · Jakorian Bennett DB 26% |
| 28 | PIT | 0.92 | — | 6 | — | 4 | DeShon Elliott DB 75% · Logan Lee DL 17% |
| 29 | DEN | 0.90 | — | 6 | — | 3 | Levelle Bailey LB 49% · Frank Crum OL 28% · Michael Deiter OL 14% |
| 30 | CIN | 0.58 | — | 2 | — | 1 | Ja'Sir Taylor DB 58% · Brian Parker II OL 0% |
| 31 | LA | 0.55 | — | 7 | — | 6 | Justin Dedich OL 55% · Zech McPhearson DB 0% |
| 32 | BAL | 0.28 | — | 5 | — | 4 | Danny Pinter OL 28% · Skylar Thompson QB 0% |
Two different units, kept apart on purpose. "FTE lost" is snap
share — how much a coach used a player, not how good he was. "QB WAR out" is in
wins, from 2025, and is the only position we publish a
WAR for: play-by-play names 599 of 2,227 active players, so nobody on the line or in
the secondary can be rated from it, and running-back rushing efficiency does not
persist. Adding wins to snap-shares would be nonsense, so they are separate columns.
QB WAR uses 35.7 points per win and a
-0.129 EPA/dropback
replacement level, both fitted rather than assumed.
"No history" counts absent players with no 2025 snaps at all
(rookies, and players new to the league); they are weighted zero, so a team carrying
several of them is understated here.
Measured, not actionable. Across 2022-2025 an extra full-time-equivalent player out
relative to the opponent was worth about 1.4 points of margin — and
the closing line already prices it. The one window where burden predicted beating the
number was weeks 15-18, which reads as eliminated teams shutting down rather than a
mispricing. Study at
backtests/injury_impact/FINDINGS.md.