NFL Division Odds, 2026

Each team's chance to win its division, recomputed after every week. Dashed lines are Kalshi's prices at the same moments.

Through 122 games · Chg = change since Wk 8 · updated 2026-11-06 23:40 UTC

AFC East

Team	Record	Rating	Proj. W	Win div	Chg	Kalshi
BUF	6-1	+3.4	12.1	75%	·	76%
NE	5-3	+1.5	9.9	25%	·	23%
NYJ	2-6	-3.5	5.5	<1%	·	0%
MIA	1-6	-5.7	4.2	<1%	·	0%

Week by week

Team	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4	Wk 5	Wk 6	Wk 7	Wk 8	Now
BUF	38	63	83	74	72	72	78	75	75
Kalshi	63	70	79	70	66	69	74	76	76
NE	15	26	13	21	23	26	21	25	25
Kalshi	32	26	17	27	30	29	24	23	23
NYJ	31	9	3	4	5	1	1	0	0
Kalshi	5	4	4	3	4	2	0	0	0
MIA	16	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kalshi	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0

AFC North

Team	Record	Rating	Proj. W	Win div	Chg	Kalshi
CIN	5-2	+3.4	11.3	57%	-2	56%
PIT	6-2	+0.1	10.4	32%	+5	33%
CLE	5-3	-3.4	8.7	8%	·	9%
BAL	4-5	-0.4	7.9	3%	-3	3%

Week by week

Team	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4	Wk 5	Wk 6	Wk 7	Wk 8	Now
CIN	24	41	37	27	37	37	52	59	57
Kalshi	35	46	33	26	23	30	44	56	56
PIT	32	17	13	8	15	25	27	27	32
Kalshi	15	11	10	7	7	15	18	32	33
CLE	7	6	5	6	6	12	12	8	8
Kalshi	1	2	4	9	8	9	14	10	9
BAL	38	36	46	59	42	26	9	6	3
Kalshi	48	42	53	59	61	45	24	4	3

AFC South

Team	Record	Rating	Proj. W	Win div	Chg	Kalshi
JAX	6-2	+6.0	12.1	92%	+4	90%
HOU	2-5	+4.1	8.4	8%	-3	9%
IND	2-6	-2.5	6.1	<1%	-1	1%
TEN	1-7	-6.6	3.5	<1%	·	1%

Week by week

Team	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4	Wk 5	Wk 6	Wk 7	Wk 8	Now
JAX	54	43	48	53	77	72	79	88	92
Kalshi	41	43	53	63	73	69	81	87	90
HOU	14	30	23	14	11	19	15	11	8
Kalshi	42	39	23	14	15	26	14	12	9
IND	12	17	23	31	12	9	6	2	0
Kalshi	15	16	22	21	11	5	4	1	1
TEN	19	10	5	2	0	0	0	0	0
Kalshi	3	1	3	1	0	1	0	1	1

AFC West

Team	Record	Rating	Proj. W	Win div	Chg	Kalshi
DEN	6-2	+2.6	11.5	56%	+2	51%
KC	5-2	+3.3	10.8	41%	-1	45%
LV	4-4	-3.2	7.6	3%	-1	4%
LAC	0-7	-2.0	4.4	<1%	·	1%

Week by week

Team	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4	Wk 5	Wk 6	Wk 7	Wk 8	Now
DEN	16	24	28	23	31	25	34	54	56
Kalshi	21	27	30	25	24	29	35	50	51
KC	26	44	60	68	64	72	64	42	41
Kalshi	56	63	55	64	66	67	62	44	45
LV	28	18	8	6	5	3	2	4	3
Kalshi	7	7	13	10	8	3	3	5	4
LAC	30	13	4	3	1	0	0	0	0
Kalshi	17	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	1

NFC East

Team	Record	Rating	Proj. W	Win div	Chg	Kalshi
NYG	4-2-1	-2.3	8.8	50%	+13	54%
DAL	3-5	+2.8	8.2	35%	-6	27%
WAS	2-4-1	-1.7	6.8	12%	-5	16%
PHI	2-6	-4.0	5.4	2%	-2	3%

Week by week

Team	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4	Wk 5	Wk 6	Wk 7	Wk 8	Now
NYG	16	10	14	21	24	23	28	37	50
Kalshi	23	15	8	11	19	29	37	52	54
DAL	31	21	14	28	37	42	57	41	35
Kalshi	19	27	28	42	39	42	46	27	27
WAS	11	8	5	5	7	9	6	17	12
Kalshi	8	2	10	7	9	17	8	17	16
PHI	41	61	67	46	32	26	9	4	2
Kalshi	51	57	54	40	34	12	9	5	3

NFC North

Team	Record	Rating	Proj. W	Win div	Chg	Kalshi
DET	5-2	+2.3	10.9	34%	+1	30%
MIN	6-1	+0.6	11.1	34%	-5	26%
CHI	6-2	+1.9	10.9	24%	+4	35%
GB	5-3	+0.4	9.4	7%	·	8%

Week by week

Team	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4	Wk 5	Wk 6	Wk 7	Wk 8	Now
DET	32	18	31	29	34	33	25	34	34
Kalshi	35	30	38	28	28	24	27	31	30
MIN	19	35	40	43	48	46	59	39	34
Kalshi	19	29	34	36	44	40	42	26	26
CHI	36	27	22	15	9	12	12	21	24
Kalshi	31	20	18	27	20	23	24	34	35
GB	13	21	7	13	9	9	4	7	7
Kalshi	16	20	9	9	9	13	7	9	8

NFC South

Team	Record	Rating	Proj. W	Win div	Chg	Kalshi
CAR	3-4	-0.9	7.7	36%	-4	31%
TB	3-5	-2.0	6.9	24%	-1	32%
ATL	3-5	-0.9	7.3	23%	+4	22%
NO	2-5	-1.6	6.7	18%	+1	14%

Week by week

Team	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4	Wk 5	Wk 6	Wk 7	Wk 8	Now
CAR	19	40	30	36	44	65	46	40	36
Kalshi	23	27	22	27	38	48	34	32	31
TB	32	29	25	15	10	5	14	25	24
Kalshi	33	23	15	10	16	11	19	32	32
ATL	25	6	14	26	32	15	27	19	23
Kalshi	14	7	22	33	29	22	37	21	22
NO	24	25	31	23	15	15	13	16	18
Kalshi	30	44	41	29	18	20	11	14	14

NFC West

Team	Record	Rating	Proj. W	Win div	Chg	Kalshi
SF	6-1	+3.8	12.0	81%	+4	78%
SEA	4-4	+4.1	9.5	12%	-2	12%
LA	4-4	+3.6	9.1	7%	-2	10%
ARI	3-5	-3.1	6.8	1%	·	0%

Week by week

Team	Wk 1	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4	Wk 5	Wk 6	Wk 7	Wk 8	Now
SF	24	43	47	48	68	79	70	77	81
Kalshi	33	39	40	40	58	79	73	76	78
SEA	32	29	35	36	19	14	23	14	12
Kalshi	35	31	30	30	18	11	17	14	12
LA	26	25	15	15	13	7	8	9	7
Kalshi	29	29	29	29	23	10	10	10	10
ARI	18	3	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
Kalshi	3	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	0

How this works

Team ratings come from the closing point spreads so far, weighted toward recent weeks. The rest of the regular season is simulated 20,000 times, with ratings allowed to drift by as much as they typically do by season's end. Division ties are broken with the NFL's rules (head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule); on real 2016–25 results they name all 80 actual division winners.

Each week's numbers use only spreads and results through that week, so the history isn't revised. "Now" includes games finished in a week still in progress. Rating is points better than an average team on a neutral field.

Graded on 2016–25: after week 9 the Brier score is 0.100, against 0.150 for picking the current division leader and 0.188 for 25% each. By week 12 it runs slightly overconfident (favorites at 80% won 75%). Against Kalshi in 2025 it was about level, on only 8 races.

Kalshi prices are the bid/ask midpoint (last trade when the spread is over 10¢) on the Tuesday after each week, scaled to add up to 100% within the division.