EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
ARI, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from ARI's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.013345 | +0.006 | 17/32 | +0.134309 | +0.006 | 30/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.109122 | +0.004 | 23/32 | +0.226136 | +0.010 | 31/32 |
| Away | +0.040223 | +0.010 | 14/32 | +0.061173 | +0.004 | 20/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.053273 | -0.021 | 20/32 | +0.199254 | +0.000 | 32/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.017194 | -0.013 | 15/25 | +0.113191 | -0.013 | 19/25 |
| Outdoors | -0.007151 | +0.013 | 19/32 | +0.167118 | +0.013 | 27/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.007151 | +0.029 | 18/29 | +0.167118 | +0.029 | 25/29 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.007151 | +0.020 | 15/29 | +0.167118 | +0.020 | 24/29 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.007151 | +0.029 | 20/32 | +0.167118 | +0.029 | 27/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.131121 | +0.035 | 11/29 | +0.32585 | +0.072 | 23/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -0.24974 | -0.001 | 30/32 | +0.12576 | -0.028 | 24/32 |
| Tied | +0.10784 | -0.010 | 9/32 | +0.09545 | -0.010 | 24/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.16455 | -0.028 | 24/31 | +0.06180 | -0.001 | 18/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.16011 | +0.072 | 21/27 | -0.21823 | +0.035 | 6/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.168113 | +0.044 | 11/29 | +0.250123 | +0.028 | 25/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.094218 | -0.010 | 24/32 | +0.106172 | -0.010 | 29/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.19414 | +0.028 | 21/30 | -0.55014 | +0.044 | 2/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.15292 | -0.038 | 6/32 | +0.18249 | -0.038 | 29/32 |
| Q2 | -0.20194 | +0.021 | 29/32 | +0.038100 | +0.021 | 19/32 |
| Q3 | +0.08977 | +0.016 | 11/32 | +0.28669 | +0.016 | 30/32 |
| Q4 | -0.07782 | +0.013 | 25/32 | +0.09791 | +0.013 | 22/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.11950 | -0.007 | 24/32 | -0.25033 | -0.007 | 2/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.005295 | +0.007 | 14/32 | +0.179276 | +0.007 | 31/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.049141 | +0.002 | 10/32 | +0.060141 | +0.002 | 22/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.040120 | -0.003 | 18/32 | -0.03799 | -0.003 | 15/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.14076 | +0.009 | 28/32 | +0.50759 | +0.009 | 32/32 |
| 4th down | +0.5158 | +0.184 | 15/32 | +0.65910 | +0.184 | 21/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.36927 | +0.031 | 29/32 | -0.18912 | +0.031 | 9/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.18416 | +0.050 | 13/32 | +0.52816 | +0.050 | 26/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.10933 | -0.026 | 21/32 | +0.76631 | -0.026 | 32/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.10128 | -0.014 | 22/32 | +0.18034 | -0.014 | 26/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.092153 | -0.029 | 23/32 | +0.096109 | -0.029 | 29/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.14299 | +0.036 | 7/32 | +0.12698 | +0.036 | 22/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.02365 | +0.053 | 20/32 | +0.18168 | +0.053 | 24/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.018196 | +0.029 | 22/32 | +0.190148 | +0.029 | 30/32 |
| Under center | -0.006149 | -0.031 | 12/32 | +0.082161 | -0.031 | 26/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.079303 | +0.001 | 27/32 | +0.135304 | +0.001 | 30/32 |
| No huddle | +0.46942 | +0.079 | 5/32 | +0.0415 | +0.079 | 13/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.