EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
ATL, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from ATL's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.028316 | +0.006 | 21/32 | -0.035343 | +0.006 | 8/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.262133 | +0.004 | 31/32 | +0.036138 | +0.010 | 19/32 |
| Away | +0.143183 | +0.010 | 5/32 | -0.083205 | +0.004 | 8/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Short week (≤5 days) | +0.32168 | +0.186 | 2/8 | +0.02766 | +0.186 | 2/8 |
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.262133 | -0.021 | 32/32 | +0.036138 | +0.000 | 19/32 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | +0.46855 | +0.117 | 1/10 | -0.03574 | -0.114 | 6/10 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.062124 | -0.013 | 17/25 | -0.002139 | -0.013 | 13/25 |
| Outdoors | -0.005192 | +0.013 | 18/32 | -0.058204 | +0.013 | 10/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.003128 | +0.029 | 17/29 | -0.111131 | +0.029 | 5/29 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.003128 | +0.020 | 14/29 | -0.111131 | +0.020 | 7/29 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.005192 | +0.029 | 19/32 | -0.058204 | +0.029 | 8/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.31866 | +0.035 | 29/29 | +0.03347 | +0.072 | 15/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -0.27571 | -0.001 | 31/32 | -0.56254 | -0.028 | 1/32 |
| Tied | -0.22234 | -0.010 | 26/32 | +0.14761 | -0.010 | 28/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.07888 | -0.028 | 10/31 | +0.01677 | -0.001 | 14/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.56957 | +0.072 | 1/27 | +0.062104 | +0.035 | 16/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.24852 | +0.044 | 27/29 | +0.02763 | +0.028 | 15/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.108195 | -0.010 | 26/32 | -0.178175 | -0.010 | 3/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.36669 | +0.028 | 1/30 | +0.164105 | +0.044 | 22/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.22270 | -0.038 | 25/32 | -0.17488 | -0.038 | 7/32 |
| Q2 | +0.08193 | +0.021 | 12/32 | -0.03783 | +0.021 | 11/32 |
| Q3 | -0.04873 | +0.016 | 20/32 | -0.08977 | +0.016 | 9/32 |
| Q4 | +0.05678 | +0.013 | 12/32 | +0.10281 | +0.013 | 23/32 |
| OT | -0.8172 | +0.183 | 9/10 | +0.35114 | +0.183 | 8/10 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.06130 | -0.007 | 20/32 | +0.12348 | -0.007 | 24/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.024286 | +0.007 | 21/32 | -0.061295 | +0.007 | 6/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.040142 | +0.002 | 13/32 | -0.018143 | +0.002 | 13/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.157108 | -0.003 | 28/32 | -0.187116 | -0.003 | 3/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.08361 | +0.009 | 11/32 | +0.09573 | +0.009 | 20/32 |
| 4th down | -0.4865 | +0.184 | 22/32 | +0.46211 | +0.184 | 20/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.45517 | +0.031 | 2/32 | +0.42621 | +0.031 | 28/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.67517 | +0.050 | 31/32 | -0.58320 | +0.050 | 4/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.32627 | -0.026 | 6/32 | +0.30332 | -0.026 | 26/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.11848 | -0.014 | 10/32 | -0.04034 | -0.014 | 12/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.070121 | -0.029 | 7/32 | -0.012149 | -0.029 | 19/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.287109 | +0.036 | 32/32 | -0.10095 | +0.036 | 7/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.21938 | +0.053 | 7/32 | +0.00665 | +0.053 | 13/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.145158 | +0.029 | 31/32 | -0.030225 | +0.029 | 10/32 |
| Under center | +0.090158 | -0.031 | 7/32 | -0.046118 | -0.031 | 15/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.020307 | +0.001 | 16/32 | -0.037314 | +0.001 | 12/32 |
| No huddle | -0.2789 | +0.079 | 28/32 | -0.02429 | +0.079 | 10/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.