EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
BAL, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from BAL's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.132320 | +0.006 | 6/32 | -0.008319 | +0.006 | 18/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.115119 | +0.004 | 9/32 | +0.027128 | +0.010 | 18/32 |
| Away | +0.117137 | +0.010 | 6/32 | -0.115118 | +0.004 | 7/32 |
| Neutral site | +0.19664 | -0.015 | 1/8 | +0.10473 | -0.015 | 6/8 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.113256 | -0.021 | 7/32 | +0.037265 | +0.000 | 20/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.20964 | -0.013 | 2/25 | -0.22554 | -0.013 | 7/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.113256 | +0.013 | 7/32 | +0.037265 | +0.013 | 20/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.144183 | +0.029 | 5/29 | +0.055201 | +0.029 | 16/29 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.164126 | +0.020 | 8/29 | +0.023135 | +0.020 | 16/29 |
| 10–14 mph | +0.09957 | +0.040 | 7/18 | +0.12166 | +0.040 | 13/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.113256 | +0.029 | 8/32 | +0.037265 | +0.029 | 19/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.9566 | +0.035 | 1/29 | — | +0.072 | — |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.17284 | -0.001 | 5/32 | +0.02967 | -0.028 | 19/32 |
| Tied | +0.25062 | -0.010 | 1/32 | +0.05451 | -0.010 | 21/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.12992 | -0.028 | 6/31 | -0.062122 | -0.001 | 10/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.06976 | +0.072 | 15/27 | +0.00679 | +0.035 | 11/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.67524 | +0.044 | 3/29 | -0.43015 | +0.028 | 1/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.157192 | -0.010 | 2/32 | +0.015218 | -0.010 | 19/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.039104 | +0.028 | 16/30 | +0.00886 | +0.044 | 15/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.11276 | -0.038 | 8/32 | -0.10269 | -0.038 | 10/32 |
| Q2 | +0.21999 | +0.021 | 3/32 | -0.17077 | +0.021 | 2/32 |
| Q3 | -0.08558 | +0.016 | 23/32 | -0.03878 | +0.016 | 16/32 |
| Q4 | +0.16673 | +0.013 | 6/32 | +0.24093 | +0.013 | 30/32 |
| OT | +0.35114 | +0.183 | 3/10 | -0.8172 | +0.183 | 2/10 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.25050 | -0.007 | 4/32 | +0.15235 | -0.007 | 28/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.110270 | +0.007 | 7/32 | -0.027284 | +0.007 | 14/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.202150 | +0.002 | 2/32 | -0.118140 | +0.002 | 5/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.214110 | -0.003 | 4/32 | -0.021104 | -0.003 | 17/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.06556 | +0.009 | 18/32 | +0.23166 | +0.009 | 27/32 |
| 4th down | -1.9814 | +0.184 | 32/32 | +0.1348 | +0.184 | 17/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.10718 | +0.031 | 22/32 | -0.00917 | +0.031 | 16/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.00318 | +0.050 | 18/32 | -0.31917 | +0.050 | 9/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.08420 | -0.026 | 20/32 | +0.65032 | -0.026 | 30/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.58521 | -0.014 | 2/32 | -0.14246 | -0.014 | 10/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.070149 | -0.029 | 8/32 | -0.000127 | -0.029 | 21/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.11894 | +0.036 | 10/32 | +0.04889 | +0.036 | 19/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.15356 | +0.053 | 9/32 | -0.00157 | +0.053 | 12/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.175179 | +0.029 | 6/32 | +0.079195 | +0.029 | 24/32 |
| Under center | +0.078141 | -0.031 | 8/32 | -0.143124 | -0.031 | 6/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.119308 | +0.001 | 6/32 | -0.002296 | +0.001 | 19/32 |
| No huddle | +0.48212 | +0.079 | 4/32 | -0.08323 | +0.079 | 9/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.