EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
BUF, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from BUF's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.204249 | +0.006 | 1/32 | +0.114286 | +0.006 | 29/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.177194 | +0.004 | 6/32 | +0.130207 | +0.010 | 27/32 |
| Away | +0.30055 | +0.010 | 1/32 | +0.07179 | +0.004 | 22/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Short week (≤5 days) | +0.43971 | +0.186 | 1/8 | +0.28165 | +0.186 | 6/8 |
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.12758 | -0.021 | 4/32 | +0.18073 | +0.000 | 31/32 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | -0.06565 | +0.117 | 9/10 | -0.06569 | -0.114 | 5/10 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.30055 | -0.013 | 1/25 | +0.07179 | -0.013 | 17/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.177194 | +0.013 | 4/32 | +0.130207 | +0.013 | 26/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.177194 | +0.029 | 4/29 | +0.130207 | +0.029 | 23/29 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.43971 | +0.020 | 1/29 | +0.28165 | +0.020 | 28/29 |
| 10–14 mph | +0.026123 | +0.040 | 9/18 | +0.061142 | +0.040 | 11/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.177194 | +0.029 | 4/32 | +0.130207 | +0.029 | 26/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.01711 | +0.035 | 16/29 | +0.20710 | +0.072 | 20/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.213121 | -0.001 | 2/32 | -0.45543 | -0.028 | 4/32 |
| Tied | -0.30129 | -0.010 | 30/32 | +0.13560 | -0.010 | 27/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.42535 | -0.028 | 1/31 | +0.120100 | -0.001 | 23/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.35553 | +0.072 | 3/27 | +0.41173 | +0.035 | 27/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | — | +0.044 | — | -0.20910 | +0.028 | 6/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.151187 | -0.010 | 3/32 | +0.054208 | -0.010 | 22/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.36662 | +0.028 | 2/30 | +0.34568 | +0.044 | 26/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.07260 | -0.038 | 18/32 | +0.08351 | -0.038 | 24/32 |
| Q2 | +0.52772 | +0.021 | 1/32 | +0.19883 | +0.021 | 31/32 |
| Q3 | -0.06543 | +0.016 | 21/32 | +0.15574 | +0.016 | 25/32 |
| Q4 | +0.27174 | +0.013 | 3/32 | +0.00678 | +0.013 | 14/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.41238 | -0.007 | 1/32 | +0.24438 | -0.007 | 32/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.167211 | +0.007 | 5/32 | +0.094248 | +0.007 | 26/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.203120 | +0.002 | 1/32 | +0.075124 | +0.002 | 25/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.01679 | -0.003 | 14/32 | +0.17796 | -0.003 | 29/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.49146 | +0.009 | 1/32 | -0.17558 | +0.009 | 8/32 |
| 4th down | +1.2974 | +0.184 | 7/32 | +2.0538 | +0.184 | 29/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.16911 | +0.031 | 14/32 | +0.03319 | +0.031 | 18/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.82815 | +0.050 | 2/32 | -0.7328 | +0.050 | 3/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.41620 | -0.026 | 4/32 | -0.15831 | -0.026 | 13/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.09219 | -0.014 | 12/32 | +0.05118 | -0.014 | 19/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.002108 | -0.029 | 16/32 | -0.044131 | -0.029 | 15/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.54375 | +0.036 | 1/32 | +0.28387 | +0.036 | 30/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.17447 | +0.053 | 8/32 | +0.25650 | +0.053 | 29/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.250116 | +0.029 | 3/32 | +0.153172 | +0.029 | 29/32 |
| Under center | +0.164133 | -0.031 | 2/32 | +0.055114 | -0.031 | 24/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.157237 | +0.001 | 5/32 | +0.116273 | +0.001 | 28/32 |
| No huddle | +1.13412 | +0.079 | 1/32 | +0.06513 | +0.079 | 14/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.