EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
CAR, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from CAR's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.090281 | +0.006 | 8/32 | +0.012282 | +0.006 | 21/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.211141 | +0.004 | 4/32 | +0.259146 | +0.010 | 32/32 |
| Away | -0.032140 | +0.010 | 20/32 | -0.253136 | +0.004 | 3/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.077213 | -0.021 | 9/32 | -0.114207 | +0.000 | 5/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.03565 | -0.013 | 10/25 | -0.48569 | -0.013 | 1/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.106216 | +0.013 | 10/32 | +0.173213 | +0.013 | 28/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.095148 | +0.029 | 10/29 | +0.072138 | +0.029 | 18/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.13068 | +0.019 | 6/20 | +0.36175 | +0.019 | 19/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.211141 | +0.020 | 4/29 | +0.259146 | +0.020 | 25/29 |
| 10–14 mph | -0.09075 | +0.040 | 16/18 | -0.01367 | +0.040 | 7/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.106216 | +0.029 | 11/32 | +0.173213 | +0.029 | 28/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.29034 | +0.035 | 7/29 | +0.48718 | +0.072 | 26/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -0.00196 | -0.001 | 20/32 | -0.22335 | -0.028 | 6/32 |
| Tied | +0.13057 | -0.010 | 6/32 | +0.09274 | -0.010 | 23/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.18432 | -0.028 | 4/31 | +0.18768 | -0.001 | 30/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.03462 | +0.072 | 13/27 | -0.19587 | +0.035 | 7/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.13733 | +0.044 | 12/29 | +0.33525 | +0.028 | 29/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.108183 | -0.010 | 7/32 | +0.051179 | -0.010 | 21/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.01565 | +0.028 | 14/30 | -0.18078 | +0.044 | 7/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.00657 | -0.038 | 15/32 | -0.07665 | -0.038 | 12/32 |
| Q2 | +0.19873 | +0.021 | 5/32 | +0.17180 | +0.021 | 28/32 |
| Q3 | +0.17878 | +0.016 | 6/32 | -0.21854 | +0.016 | 3/32 |
| Q4 | -0.04773 | +0.013 | 22/32 | +0.07983 | +0.013 | 19/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.05838 | -0.007 | 14/32 | +0.10435 | -0.007 | 22/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.095243 | +0.007 | 8/32 | -0.001247 | +0.007 | 20/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.095128 | +0.002 | 7/32 | +0.125123 | +0.002 | 28/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.22495 | -0.003 | 2/32 | -0.04894 | -0.003 | 14/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.08350 | +0.009 | 21/32 | -0.08255 | +0.009 | 13/32 |
| 4th down | -0.5078 | +0.184 | 23/32 | -0.27710 | +0.184 | 12/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.72314 | +0.031 | 31/32 | -0.43114 | +0.031 | 4/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.5489 | +0.050 | 6/32 | -0.06717 | +0.050 | 14/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.03927 | -0.026 | 12/32 | +0.11024 | -0.026 | 24/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.05926 | -0.014 | 17/32 | -0.44943 | -0.014 | 1/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.165123 | -0.029 | 1/32 | +0.20299 | -0.029 | 31/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.01280 | +0.036 | 17/32 | -0.05198 | +0.036 | 11/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.10552 | +0.053 | 12/32 | +0.18542 | +0.053 | 26/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.143184 | +0.029 | 8/32 | +0.055177 | +0.029 | 19/32 |
| Under center | -0.01297 | -0.031 | 13/32 | -0.060105 | -0.031 | 11/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.077264 | +0.001 | 8/32 | -0.003264 | +0.001 | 18/32 |
| No huddle | +0.29017 | +0.079 | 8/32 | +0.23318 | +0.079 | 22/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.