EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
CHI, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from CHI's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.038377 | +0.006 | 11/32 | +0.000261 | +0.006 | 20/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.037233 | +0.004 | 15/32 | -0.165134 | +0.010 | 6/32 |
| Away | +0.039144 | +0.010 | 15/32 | +0.174127 | +0.004 | 29/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.042302 | -0.021 | 19/32 | -0.046193 | +0.000 | 13/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Outdoors | +0.038377 | +0.013 | 13/32 | +0.000261 | +0.013 | 17/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.037233 | +0.029 | 14/29 | -0.165134 | +0.029 | 3/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.36175 | +0.019 | 2/20 | +0.13068 | +0.019 | 15/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.116308 | +0.020 | 10/29 | -0.066202 | +0.020 | 11/29 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.080304 | +0.029 | 13/32 | +0.018209 | +0.029 | 16/32 |
| Rain or snow | -0.13873 | -0.140 | 4/9 | -0.07352 | -0.140 | 8/9 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.24159 | +0.035 | 27/29 | -0.00128 | +0.072 | 13/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -0.04981 | -0.001 | 23/32 | +0.13849 | -0.028 | 25/32 |
| Tied | +0.16386 | -0.010 | 4/32 | +0.04448 | -0.010 | 18/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.09580 | -0.028 | 8/31 | -0.21174 | -0.001 | 3/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.15171 | +0.072 | 9/27 | +0.11062 | +0.035 | 19/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.18463 | +0.044 | 26/29 | -0.00548 | +0.028 | 12/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.036214 | -0.010 | 14/32 | -0.010168 | -0.010 | 16/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.181100 | +0.028 | 7/30 | +0.04445 | +0.044 | 17/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.08489 | -0.038 | 12/32 | -0.07259 | -0.038 | 13/32 |
| Q2 | +0.00499 | +0.021 | 17/32 | +0.10576 | +0.021 | 24/32 |
| Q3 | +0.06085 | +0.016 | 14/32 | -0.13872 | +0.016 | 8/32 |
| Q4 | +0.013104 | +0.013 | 17/32 | +0.11554 | +0.013 | 25/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.19640 | -0.007 | 5/32 | +0.01228 | -0.007 | 17/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.019337 | +0.007 | 13/32 | -0.001233 | +0.007 | 18/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.041159 | +0.002 | 21/32 | +0.144118 | +0.002 | 31/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.060125 | -0.003 | 10/32 | +0.08587 | -0.003 | 23/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.19878 | +0.009 | 7/32 | -0.40251 | +0.009 | 3/32 |
| 4th down | -0.14015 | +0.184 | 18/32 | -0.7765 | +0.184 | 8/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.20327 | +0.031 | 25/32 | -0.87614 | +0.031 | 1/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.75927 | +0.050 | 3/32 | -0.13912 | +0.050 | 13/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.01924 | -0.026 | 13/32 | -0.26425 | -0.026 | 8/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.06141 | -0.014 | 18/32 | +0.06533 | -0.014 | 20/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.036145 | -0.029 | 13/32 | +0.067113 | -0.029 | 26/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.217102 | +0.036 | 4/32 | -0.16378 | +0.036 | 3/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.11989 | +0.053 | 27/32 | +0.08237 | +0.053 | 18/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.048207 | +0.029 | 14/32 | -0.106160 | +0.029 | 4/32 |
| Under center | +0.025170 | -0.031 | 10/32 | +0.167101 | -0.031 | 32/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.037354 | +0.001 | 11/32 | -0.021245 | +0.001 | 16/32 |
| No huddle | +0.05123 | +0.079 | 18/32 | +0.33016 | +0.079 | 26/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.