EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
CIN, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from CIN's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.068317 | +0.006 | 9/32 | -0.024316 | +0.006 | 12/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.022139 | +0.004 | 18/32 | +0.025114 | +0.010 | 17/32 |
| Away | +0.103178 | +0.010 | 7/32 | -0.051202 | +0.004 | 10/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.084254 | -0.021 | 8/32 | -0.011260 | +0.000 | 15/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.10759 | -0.013 | 19/25 | -0.23979 | -0.013 | 5/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.108258 | +0.013 | 9/32 | +0.048237 | +0.013 | 22/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.134133 | +0.029 | 6/29 | +0.160117 | +0.029 | 24/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.00163 | +0.019 | 12/20 | -0.08156 | +0.019 | 5/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.022139 | +0.020 | 12/29 | +0.025114 | +0.020 | 17/29 |
| 10–14 mph | +0.26057 | +0.040 | 1/18 | +0.19159 | +0.040 | 17/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.108258 | +0.029 | 10/32 | +0.048237 | +0.029 | 22/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.33630 | +0.035 | 3/29 | — | +0.072 | — |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.03686 | -0.001 | 18/32 | -0.01549 | -0.028 | 16/32 |
| Tied | +0.10768 | -0.010 | 8/32 | +0.05191 | -0.010 | 19/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.14753 | -0.028 | 5/31 | -0.22864 | -0.001 | 2/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.08480 | +0.072 | 17/27 | +0.028112 | +0.035 | 14/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.43816 | +0.044 | 5/29 | +0.22917 | +0.028 | 24/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.077195 | -0.010 | 11/32 | -0.121191 | -0.010 | 6/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.005106 | +0.028 | 15/30 | +0.108108 | +0.044 | 20/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.10364 | -0.038 | 9/32 | -0.00879 | -0.038 | 19/32 |
| Q2 | +0.13997 | +0.021 | 7/32 | -0.09283 | +0.021 | 7/32 |
| Q3 | +0.19576 | +0.016 | 3/32 | -0.05560 | +0.016 | 12/32 |
| Q4 | -0.16880 | +0.013 | 30/32 | +0.04494 | +0.013 | 17/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.01143 | -0.007 | 18/32 | +0.10046 | -0.007 | 21/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.080274 | +0.007 | 9/32 | -0.045270 | +0.007 | 12/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.010140 | +0.002 | 16/32 | +0.084145 | +0.002 | 26/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.013103 | -0.003 | 13/32 | -0.18499 | -0.003 | 4/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.17170 | +0.009 | 8/32 | +0.15366 | +0.009 | 23/32 |
| 4th down | +1.6754 | +0.184 | 5/32 | -1.9146 | +0.184 | 3/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.28923 | +0.031 | 10/32 | +0.92316 | +0.031 | 32/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.31220 | +0.050 | 24/32 | +0.08717 | +0.050 | 17/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.42927 | -0.026 | 3/32 | -0.18733 | -0.026 | 11/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.39625 | -0.014 | 3/32 | +0.00034 | -0.014 | 16/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.005140 | -0.029 | 17/32 | -0.050122 | -0.029 | 13/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.091101 | +0.036 | 11/32 | +0.185103 | +0.036 | 26/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.06251 | +0.053 | 14/32 | -0.35757 | +0.053 | 3/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.127237 | +0.029 | 10/32 | -0.029203 | +0.029 | 11/32 |
| Under center | -0.10880 | -0.031 | 22/32 | -0.015113 | -0.031 | 18/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.075301 | +0.001 | 9/32 | +0.020292 | +0.001 | 22/32 |
| No huddle | -0.07216 | +0.079 | 25/32 | -0.56024 | +0.079 | 2/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.