EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
CLE, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from CLE's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.067305 | +0.006 | 25/32 | -0.020331 | +0.006 | 13/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.054129 | +0.004 | 13/32 | +0.010144 | +0.010 | 16/32 |
| Away | -0.156176 | +0.010 | 30/32 | -0.042187 | +0.004 | 12/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Short week (≤5 days) | +0.12662 | +0.186 | 5/8 | +0.11969 | +0.186 | 3/8 |
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.001123 | -0.021 | 14/32 | -0.141140 | +0.000 | 3/32 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | -0.25969 | +0.117 | 10/10 | -0.17268 | -0.114 | 4/10 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Outdoors | -0.067305 | +0.013 | 27/32 | -0.020331 | +0.013 | 13/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.054129 | +0.029 | 12/29 | +0.010144 | +0.029 | 15/29 |
| 80°F+ | -0.089107 | +0.019 | 16/20 | +0.032119 | +0.019 | 10/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.089107 | +0.020 | 24/29 | +0.032119 | +0.020 | 18/29 |
| 10–14 mph | +0.054129 | +0.040 | 8/18 | +0.010144 | +0.040 | 9/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.011236 | +0.029 | 21/32 | +0.020263 | +0.029 | 17/32 |
| Rain or snow | -0.25969 | -0.140 | 8/9 | -0.17268 | -0.140 | 3/9 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.04053 | +0.035 | 19/29 | +0.17337 | +0.072 | 19/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.066120 | -0.001 | 13/32 | -0.17583 | -0.028 | 9/32 |
| Tied | -0.17867 | -0.010 | 24/32 | +0.01191 | -0.010 | 17/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.16947 | -0.028 | 25/31 | -0.02685 | -0.001 | 12/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.35818 | +0.072 | 24/27 | +0.07935 | +0.035 | 17/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.09256 | +0.044 | 19/29 | +0.15251 | +0.028 | 22/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.032209 | -0.010 | 18/32 | -0.092231 | -0.010 | 8/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.21540 | +0.028 | 23/30 | +0.14249 | +0.044 | 21/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.25770 | -0.038 | 29/32 | +0.16472 | -0.038 | 28/32 |
| Q2 | +0.02480 | +0.021 | 14/32 | -0.16795 | +0.021 | 3/32 |
| Q3 | -0.15754 | +0.016 | 29/32 | -0.04685 | +0.016 | 14/32 |
| Q4 | +0.040101 | +0.013 | 15/32 | +0.01879 | +0.013 | 16/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.13240 | -0.007 | 8/32 | -0.12251 | -0.007 | 9/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.097265 | +0.007 | 27/32 | -0.001280 | +0.007 | 19/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.005131 | +0.002 | 17/32 | -0.052146 | +0.002 | 9/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.080103 | -0.003 | 21/32 | +0.183107 | -0.003 | 30/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.08263 | +0.009 | 20/32 | -0.15273 | +0.009 | 10/32 |
| 4th down | -0.8028 | +0.184 | 26/32 | -1.4815 | +0.184 | 4/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.43716 | +0.031 | 3/32 | -0.14723 | +0.031 | 13/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.08812 | +0.050 | 16/32 | -0.48313 | +0.050 | 7/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.37835 | -0.026 | 30/32 | -0.03937 | -0.026 | 18/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.21146 | -0.014 | 26/32 | +0.32120 | -0.014 | 30/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.044129 | -0.029 | 20/32 | -0.067162 | -0.029 | 11/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.01896 | +0.036 | 21/32 | -0.007110 | +0.036 | 18/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.09934 | +0.053 | 25/32 | -0.03239 | +0.053 | 7/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.032238 | +0.029 | 18/32 | +0.003206 | +0.029 | 14/32 |
| Under center | -0.41867 | -0.031 | 32/32 | -0.057125 | -0.031 | 12/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.059294 | +0.001 | 23/32 | -0.044309 | +0.001 | 9/32 |
| No huddle | -0.27911 | +0.079 | 29/32 | +0.32522 | +0.079 | 25/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.