EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
DAL, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from DAL's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.158323 | +0.006 | 5/32 | +0.182324 | +0.006 | 32/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.104114 | +0.004 | 10/32 | +0.089141 | +0.010 | 25/32 |
| Away | +0.232136 | +0.010 | 3/32 | +0.283119 | +0.004 | 32/32 |
| Neutral site | +0.10473 | -0.015 | 3/8 | +0.19664 | -0.015 | 8/8 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Short week (≤5 days) | -0.01459 | +0.186 | 8/8 | +0.14870 | +0.186 | 5/8 |
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.175206 | -0.021 | 3/32 | +0.131188 | +0.000 | 27/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.144192 | -0.013 | 8/25 | +0.115194 | -0.013 | 20/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.178131 | +0.013 | 3/32 | +0.281130 | +0.013 | 30/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.10473 | +0.029 | 9/29 | +0.19664 | +0.029 | 26/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.27158 | +0.019 | 3/20 | +0.36366 | +0.019 | 20/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.178131 | +0.020 | 7/29 | +0.281130 | +0.020 | 27/29 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.178131 | +0.029 | 3/32 | +0.281130 | +0.029 | 30/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.53457 | +0.035 | 2/29 | -0.11521 | +0.072 | 6/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.083147 | -0.001 | 10/32 | +0.152104 | -0.028 | 26/32 |
| Tied | +0.06759 | -0.010 | 13/32 | +0.28252 | -0.010 | 30/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.01443 | -0.028 | 11/31 | +0.14494 | -0.001 | 26/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.22317 | +0.072 | 7/27 | +0.32653 | +0.035 | 25/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.41351 | +0.044 | 6/29 | +0.09265 | +0.028 | 21/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.113243 | -0.010 | 6/32 | +0.172221 | -0.010 | 31/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.08329 | +0.028 | 10/30 | +0.39338 | +0.044 | 27/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.16774 | -0.038 | 3/32 | +0.27072 | -0.038 | 32/32 |
| Q2 | -0.07288 | +0.021 | 23/32 | +0.06294 | +0.021 | 21/32 |
| Q3 | +0.19380 | +0.016 | 4/32 | +0.26866 | +0.016 | 28/32 |
| Q4 | +0.36581 | +0.013 | 1/32 | +0.17392 | +0.013 | 28/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.07446 | -0.007 | 11/32 | +0.04039 | -0.007 | 18/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.172277 | +0.007 | 4/32 | +0.201285 | +0.007 | 32/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.092146 | +0.002 | 8/32 | +0.134149 | +0.002 | 29/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.220107 | -0.003 | 3/32 | +0.284112 | -0.003 | 32/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.17165 | +0.009 | 9/32 | +0.31760 | +0.009 | 29/32 |
| 4th down | +0.5775 | +0.184 | 12/32 | -3.9813 | +0.184 | 2/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.16120 | +0.031 | 24/32 | -0.02722 | +0.031 | 14/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.18321 | +0.050 | 21/32 | +0.30017 | +0.050 | 21/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.75624 | -0.026 | 1/32 | +0.69221 | -0.026 | 31/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.70017 | -0.014 | 1/32 | +0.64827 | -0.014 | 32/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.087141 | -0.029 | 4/32 | +0.083122 | -0.029 | 27/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.057105 | +0.036 | 13/32 | +0.177114 | +0.036 | 25/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.34860 | +0.053 | 3/32 | +0.18361 | +0.053 | 25/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.224218 | +0.029 | 4/32 | +0.359184 | +0.029 | 32/32 |
| Under center | +0.020105 | -0.031 | 11/32 | -0.051140 | -0.031 | 14/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.166291 | +0.001 | 3/32 | +0.177316 | +0.001 | 31/32 |
| No huddle | +0.08532 | +0.079 | 15/32 | +0.3778 | +0.079 | 28/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.