EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
DEN, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from DEN's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.065302 | +0.006 | 24/32 | -0.035339 | +0.006 | 10/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.064124 | +0.004 | 12/32 | -0.021144 | +0.010 | 14/32 |
| Away | -0.155178 | +0.010 | 29/32 | -0.046195 | +0.004 | 11/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.003252 | -0.021 | 16/32 | -0.073273 | +0.000 | 10/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.18662 | -0.013 | 21/25 | -0.37266 | -0.013 | 2/25 |
| Outdoors | -0.034240 | +0.013 | 23/32 | +0.046273 | +0.013 | 21/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.12959 | +0.029 | 7/29 | -0.04960 | +0.029 | 10/29 |
| 80°F+ | -0.088181 | +0.019 | 15/20 | +0.073213 | +0.019 | 13/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.04166 | +0.020 | 11/29 | +0.12363 | +0.020 | 23/29 |
| 10–14 mph | -0.063174 | +0.040 | 14/18 | +0.023210 | +0.040 | 10/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.034240 | +0.029 | 25/32 | +0.046273 | +0.029 | 21/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.14971 | +0.035 | 24/29 | +0.00750 | +0.072 | 14/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.19490 | -0.001 | 3/32 | -0.03571 | -0.028 | 13/32 |
| Tied | -0.26692 | -0.010 | 27/32 | -0.040135 | -0.010 | 14/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.04549 | -0.028 | 14/31 | -0.05383 | -0.001 | 11/31 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.13266 | +0.044 | 23/29 | -0.12877 | +0.028 | 9/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.060225 | -0.010 | 22/32 | -0.002248 | -0.010 | 17/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.22311 | +0.028 | 6/30 | -0.11214 | +0.044 | 10/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.09474 | -0.038 | 21/32 | -0.06374 | -0.038 | 15/32 |
| Q2 | -0.12879 | +0.021 | 27/32 | +0.081101 | +0.021 | 22/32 |
| Q3 | -0.11265 | +0.016 | 25/32 | -0.04180 | +0.016 | 15/32 |
| Q4 | +0.05484 | +0.013 | 13/32 | -0.14684 | +0.013 | 5/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.14433 | -0.007 | 26/32 | +0.11046 | -0.007 | 23/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.056269 | +0.007 | 24/32 | -0.058293 | +0.007 | 9/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.061130 | +0.002 | 22/32 | -0.015144 | +0.002 | 14/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.032102 | -0.003 | 12/32 | -0.015112 | -0.003 | 18/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.25167 | +0.009 | 32/32 | -0.14876 | +0.009 | 11/32 |
| 4th down | +0.5503 | +0.184 | 13/32 | +0.4397 | +0.184 | 19/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.01220 | +0.031 | 18/32 | +0.20726 | +0.031 | 23/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.09218 | +0.050 | 19/32 | -0.91418 | +0.050 | 2/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.53029 | -0.026 | 32/32 | -0.00632 | -0.026 | 19/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.04336 | -0.014 | 16/32 | -0.24940 | -0.014 | 6/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.173136 | -0.029 | 29/32 | -0.062162 | -0.029 | 12/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.00285 | +0.036 | 19/32 | +0.08991 | +0.036 | 21/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.04645 | +0.053 | 15/32 | -0.00346 | +0.053 | 11/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.009202 | +0.029 | 21/32 | -0.045202 | +0.029 | 9/32 |
| Under center | -0.179100 | -0.031 | 28/32 | -0.022137 | -0.031 | 17/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.069286 | +0.001 | 25/32 | -0.074323 | +0.001 | 7/32 |
| No huddle | +0.00716 | +0.079 | 21/32 | +0.73916 | +0.079 | 31/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.