EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
DET, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from DET's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.176342 | +0.006 | 3/32 | +0.170368 | +0.006 | 31/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.075140 | +0.004 | 11/32 | +0.063152 | +0.010 | 22/32 |
| Away | +0.246202 | +0.010 | 2/32 | +0.244216 | +0.004 | 31/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Short week (≤5 days) | +0.28165 | +0.186 | 3/8 | +0.43971 | +0.186 | 8/8 |
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.229137 | -0.021 | 1/32 | +0.149145 | +0.000 | 30/32 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | +0.20163 | +0.117 | 4/10 | +0.10964 | -0.114 | 10/10 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.151206 | -0.013 | 4/25 | +0.046224 | -0.013 | 14/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.214136 | +0.013 | 1/32 | +0.361144 | +0.013 | 31/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.214136 | +0.029 | 2/29 | +0.361144 | +0.029 | 28/29 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.214136 | +0.020 | 3/29 | +0.361144 | +0.020 | 29/29 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.214136 | +0.029 | 1/32 | +0.361144 | +0.029 | 31/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.30088 | +0.035 | 5/29 | +0.28568 | +0.072 | 21/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.11063 | -0.001 | 9/32 | +0.28138 | -0.028 | 32/32 |
| Tied | +0.16469 | -0.010 | 3/32 | +0.16071 | -0.010 | 29/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.00679 | -0.028 | 12/31 | +0.038109 | -0.001 | 16/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.37243 | +0.072 | 2/27 | +0.20682 | +0.035 | 24/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.24792 | +0.044 | 8/29 | +0.25978 | +0.028 | 26/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.100165 | -0.010 | 9/32 | +0.072184 | -0.010 | 25/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.24785 | +0.028 | 5/30 | +0.274106 | +0.044 | 25/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.21365 | -0.038 | 23/32 | +0.12878 | -0.038 | 26/32 |
| Q2 | +0.206108 | +0.021 | 4/32 | +0.00695 | +0.021 | 16/32 |
| Q3 | +0.51370 | +0.016 | 1/32 | +0.29479 | +0.016 | 31/32 |
| Q4 | +0.12189 | +0.013 | 9/32 | +0.214105 | +0.013 | 29/32 |
| OT | +0.52410 | +0.183 | 2/10 | +0.56211 | +0.183 | 10/10 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.14132 | -0.007 | 6/32 | +0.13558 | -0.007 | 26/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.180310 | +0.007 | 3/32 | +0.176310 | +0.007 | 30/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.103158 | +0.002 | 6/32 | +0.137166 | +0.002 | 30/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.212112 | -0.003 | 5/32 | +0.050120 | -0.003 | 19/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.05660 | +0.009 | 17/32 | +0.19174 | +0.009 | 25/32 |
| 4th down | +1.95812 | +0.184 | 2/32 | +2.4368 | +0.184 | 30/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.32516 | +0.031 | 27/32 | -0.16525 | +0.031 | 11/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.14514 | +0.050 | 14/32 | +0.47217 | +0.050 | 24/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.00730 | -0.026 | 16/32 | +0.32032 | -0.026 | 27/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.33122 | -0.014 | 28/32 | +0.04829 | -0.014 | 18/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.159136 | -0.029 | 2/32 | +0.084178 | -0.029 | 28/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.170105 | +0.036 | 5/32 | +0.323102 | +0.036 | 31/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.35579 | +0.053 | 2/32 | +0.22259 | +0.053 | 27/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.252168 | +0.029 | 2/32 | +0.212228 | +0.029 | 31/32 |
| Under center | +0.103174 | -0.031 | 5/32 | +0.100140 | -0.031 | 28/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.184323 | +0.001 | 2/32 | +0.182317 | +0.001 | 32/32 |
| No huddle | +0.04519 | +0.079 | 19/32 | +0.09351 | +0.079 | 15/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.