EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
GB, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from GB's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.017309 | +0.006 | 18/32 | -0.015333 | +0.006 | 14/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.121125 | +0.004 | 8/32 | +0.002137 | +0.010 | 15/32 |
| Away | -0.110184 | +0.010 | 27/32 | -0.027196 | +0.004 | 13/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Short week (≤5 days) | +0.02766 | +0.186 | 7/8 | +0.32168 | +0.186 | 7/8 |
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.039118 | -0.021 | 11/32 | -0.197142 | +0.000 | 2/32 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | +0.01357 | +0.117 | 7/10 | -0.03562 | -0.114 | 7/10 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.18168 | -0.013 | 20/25 | +0.05561 | -0.013 | 15/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.030241 | +0.013 | 15/32 | -0.031272 | +0.013 | 12/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.055125 | +0.029 | 21/29 | +0.108141 | +0.029 | 22/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.01357 | +0.019 | 11/20 | -0.03562 | +0.019 | 7/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.033182 | +0.020 | 17/29 | +0.065203 | +0.020 | 19/29 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.087182 | +0.029 | 12/32 | -0.009199 | +0.029 | 11/32 |
| Rain or snow | -0.14759 | -0.140 | 7/9 | -0.09073 | -0.140 | 7/9 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.02667 | +0.035 | 18/29 | +0.52633 | +0.072 | 27/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -1.15214 | -0.001 | 32/32 | +0.15322 | -0.028 | 27/32 |
| Tied | +0.021103 | -0.010 | 16/32 | -0.288101 | -0.010 | 3/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.21469 | -0.028 | 3/31 | +0.16567 | -0.001 | 28/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.07556 | +0.072 | 16/27 | -0.070110 | +0.035 | 9/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.10755 | +0.044 | 22/29 | +0.30340 | +0.028 | 27/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.118177 | -0.010 | 5/32 | -0.046224 | -0.010 | 12/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.26277 | +0.028 | 25/30 | -0.10069 | +0.044 | 13/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.16174 | -0.038 | 4/32 | -0.31271 | -0.038 | 3/32 |
| Q2 | -0.06564 | +0.021 | 21/32 | +0.157104 | +0.021 | 27/32 |
| Q3 | +0.09578 | +0.016 | 10/32 | +0.16468 | +0.016 | 26/32 |
| Q4 | -0.24389 | +0.013 | 31/32 | -0.09087 | +0.013 | 7/32 |
| OT | +0.3494 | +0.183 | 4/10 | -0.8343 | +0.183 | 1/10 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.19733 | -0.007 | 27/32 | -0.24439 | -0.007 | 3/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.005276 | +0.007 | 15/32 | +0.015294 | +0.007 | 21/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.098138 | +0.002 | 26/32 | +0.007141 | +0.002 | 16/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.124100 | -0.003 | 7/32 | -0.334109 | -0.003 | 1/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.13661 | +0.009 | 26/32 | +0.45974 | +0.009 | 30/32 |
| 4th down | +0.43410 | +0.184 | 16/32 | -0.3909 | +0.184 | 11/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.36116 | +0.031 | 6/32 | +0.38219 | +0.031 | 26/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.43513 | +0.050 | 26/32 | +0.68718 | +0.050 | 29/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.26332 | -0.026 | 27/32 | +0.38737 | -0.026 | 29/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.30131 | -0.014 | 5/32 | +0.17553 | -0.014 | 24/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.041133 | -0.029 | 12/32 | -0.093155 | -0.029 | 6/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.07590 | +0.036 | 24/32 | -0.24169 | +0.036 | 1/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.24055 | +0.053 | 31/32 | +0.29956 | +0.053 | 30/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.006206 | +0.029 | 19/32 | -0.019203 | +0.029 | 12/32 |
| Under center | -0.062103 | -0.031 | 17/32 | -0.009130 | -0.031 | 19/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.021278 | +0.001 | 17/32 | -0.040317 | +0.001 | 10/32 |
| No huddle | +0.02631 | +0.079 | 20/32 | +0.48116 | +0.079 | 30/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.