EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
HOU, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from HOU's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.003329 | +0.006 | 14/32 | -0.014326 | +0.006 | 15/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.016211 | +0.004 | 21/32 | +0.136192 | +0.010 | 28/32 |
| Away | +0.036118 | +0.010 | 17/32 | -0.228134 | +0.004 | 4/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.019250 | -0.021 | 17/32 | -0.077271 | +0.000 | 9/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.016211 | -0.013 | 14/25 | +0.136192 | -0.013 | 21/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.036118 | +0.013 | 14/32 | -0.228134 | +0.013 | 1/32 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.036118 | +0.029 | 16/32 | -0.228134 | +0.029 | 2/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.10157 | +0.035 | 12/29 | -0.46817 | +0.072 | 2/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.043147 | -0.001 | 16/32 | -0.01090 | -0.028 | 17/32 |
| Tied | -0.34649 | -0.010 | 32/32 | -0.24062 | -0.010 | 6/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.08346 | -0.028 | 16/31 | +0.177100 | -0.001 | 29/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.31930 | +0.072 | 4/27 | +0.02857 | +0.035 | 13/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.10046 | +0.044 | 21/29 | -0.33244 | +0.028 | 4/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.012252 | -0.010 | 17/32 | +0.060242 | -0.010 | 23/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.27331 | +0.028 | 4/30 | -0.10940 | +0.044 | 11/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.05173 | -0.038 | 16/32 | -0.28072 | -0.038 | 4/32 |
| Q2 | +0.02695 | +0.021 | 13/32 | +0.14283 | +0.021 | 26/32 |
| Q3 | +0.03571 | +0.016 | 15/32 | +0.13976 | +0.016 | 24/32 |
| Q4 | -0.00490 | +0.013 | 18/32 | -0.07095 | +0.013 | 9/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.07449 | -0.007 | 12/32 | +0.18048 | -0.007 | 29/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.010280 | +0.007 | 19/32 | -0.047278 | +0.007 | 11/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.111142 | +0.002 | 5/32 | -0.034141 | +0.002 | 11/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.042112 | -0.003 | 11/32 | -0.086110 | -0.003 | 11/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.08968 | +0.009 | 22/32 | +0.14868 | +0.009 | 22/32 |
| 4th down | -1.9387 | +0.184 | 31/32 | -0.0357 | +0.184 | 15/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.20521 | +0.031 | 12/32 | +0.13912 | +0.031 | 22/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.5299 | +0.050 | 28/32 | +0.23522 | +0.050 | 19/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.14838 | -0.026 | 22/32 | +0.09434 | -0.026 | 22/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.23831 | -0.014 | 6/32 | +0.08629 | -0.014 | 22/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.094129 | -0.029 | 24/32 | +0.002144 | -0.029 | 22/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.126123 | +0.036 | 9/32 | -0.113115 | +0.036 | 6/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.21646 | +0.053 | 30/32 | +0.15238 | +0.053 | 23/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.046225 | +0.029 | 16/32 | +0.044212 | +0.029 | 16/32 |
| Under center | -0.091104 | -0.031 | 21/32 | -0.121114 | -0.031 | 10/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.011311 | +0.001 | 13/32 | -0.023305 | +0.001 | 15/32 |
| No huddle | -0.14818 | +0.079 | 26/32 | +0.12421 | +0.079 | 16/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.