EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
IND, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from IND's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.038325 | +0.006 | 22/32 | +0.067320 | +0.006 | 26/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.162125 | +0.004 | 27/32 | +0.075118 | +0.010 | 24/32 |
| Away | +0.098136 | +0.010 | 8/32 | +0.197138 | +0.004 | 30/32 |
| Neutral site | -0.08664 | -0.015 | 5/8 | -0.22664 | -0.015 | 1/8 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.001271 | -0.021 | 15/32 | +0.032256 | +0.000 | 17/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.22554 | -0.013 | 22/25 | +0.20964 | -0.013 | 23/25 |
| Outdoors | -0.001271 | +0.013 | 17/32 | +0.032256 | +0.013 | 19/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.062129 | +0.029 | 11/29 | +0.008144 | +0.029 | 14/29 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.08664 | +0.020 | 23/29 | -0.22664 | +0.020 | 2/29 |
| 10–14 mph | +0.20765 | +0.040 | 2/18 | +0.19680 | +0.040 | 18/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.001271 | +0.029 | 18/32 | +0.032256 | +0.029 | 18/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.26950 | +0.035 | 28/29 | -0.00744 | +0.072 | 11/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.036130 | -0.001 | 17/32 | +0.162105 | -0.028 | 30/32 |
| Tied | +0.00957 | -0.010 | 17/32 | -0.28744 | -0.010 | 4/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.02883 | -0.028 | 13/31 | +0.12982 | -0.001 | 25/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.3625 | +0.072 | 25/27 | +0.15445 | +0.035 | 21/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.17553 | +0.044 | 25/29 | +0.01360 | +0.028 | 13/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.016237 | -0.010 | 15/32 | +0.097227 | -0.010 | 28/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.19735 | +0.028 | 22/30 | -0.03733 | +0.044 | 14/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.24477 | -0.038 | 28/32 | +0.09166 | -0.038 | 25/32 |
| Q2 | +0.12590 | +0.021 | 8/32 | +0.00691 | +0.021 | 15/32 |
| Q3 | -0.01474 | +0.016 | 18/32 | +0.01568 | +0.016 | 17/32 |
| Q4 | -0.06280 | +0.013 | 24/32 | +0.13379 | +0.013 | 27/32 |
| OT | +0.2984 | +0.183 | 5/10 | +0.22016 | +0.183 | 5/10 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.06132 | -0.007 | 13/32 | -0.08641 | -0.007 | 10/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.049293 | +0.007 | 23/32 | +0.090279 | +0.007 | 25/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.027140 | +0.002 | 19/32 | +0.149135 | +0.002 | 32/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.110105 | -0.003 | 24/32 | +0.052111 | -0.003 | 20/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.10369 | +0.009 | 23/32 | -0.03763 | +0.009 | 15/32 |
| 4th down | +0.92511 | +0.184 | 10/32 | -0.18111 | +0.184 | 13/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.31524 | +0.031 | 8/32 | -0.30813 | +0.031 | 8/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.23219 | +0.050 | 22/32 | +0.72215 | +0.050 | 30/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.39526 | -0.026 | 31/32 | -0.26335 | -0.026 | 9/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.24725 | -0.014 | 27/32 | +0.24031 | -0.014 | 29/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.055127 | -0.029 | 22/32 | -0.025152 | -0.029 | 16/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.090125 | +0.036 | 27/32 | +0.16492 | +0.036 | 24/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.25248 | +0.053 | 4/32 | +0.06545 | +0.053 | 17/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.143199 | +0.029 | 30/32 | +0.093193 | +0.029 | 26/32 |
| Under center | +0.129126 | -0.031 | 4/32 | +0.028127 | -0.031 | 22/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.042313 | +0.001 | 20/32 | +0.094306 | +0.001 | 27/32 |
| No huddle | +0.08112 | +0.079 | 16/32 | -0.50514 | +0.079 | 4/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.