EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
JAX, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from JAX's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.108305 | +0.006 | 7/32 | -0.073311 | +0.006 | 5/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.248115 | +0.004 | 2/32 | -0.232114 | +0.010 | 2/32 |
| Away | +0.038118 | +0.010 | 16/32 | +0.079135 | +0.004 | 24/32 |
| Neutral site | +0.00172 | -0.015 | 4/8 | -0.11262 | -0.015 | 3/8 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.065251 | -0.021 | 10/32 | -0.047260 | +0.000 | 12/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Outdoors | +0.108305 | +0.013 | 8/32 | -0.073311 | +0.013 | 8/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.038118 | +0.029 | 13/29 | +0.079135 | +0.029 | 19/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.248115 | +0.019 | 4/20 | -0.232114 | +0.019 | 2/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.208173 | +0.020 | 5/29 | -0.123190 | +0.020 | 6/29 |
| 10–14 mph | -0.04960 | +0.040 | 13/18 | +0.12959 | +0.040 | 15/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.108305 | +0.029 | 9/32 | -0.073311 | +0.029 | 6/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.00557 | -0.001 | 19/32 | -0.22331 | -0.028 | 7/32 |
| Tied | +0.07593 | -0.010 | 12/32 | -0.13654 | -0.010 | 10/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.10985 | -0.028 | 7/31 | -0.075105 | -0.001 | 9/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.23770 | +0.072 | 6/27 | -0.006121 | +0.035 | 10/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.2616 | +0.044 | 28/29 | +0.3787 | +0.028 | 30/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.091190 | -0.010 | 10/32 | -0.124213 | -0.010 | 5/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.159109 | +0.028 | 8/30 | +0.01191 | +0.044 | 16/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.09976 | -0.038 | 11/32 | -0.37161 | -0.038 | 1/32 |
| Q2 | +0.09991 | +0.021 | 10/32 | -0.10685 | +0.021 | 6/32 |
| Q3 | +0.13672 | +0.016 | 9/32 | -0.05268 | +0.016 | 13/32 |
| Q4 | +0.10266 | +0.013 | 10/32 | +0.12897 | +0.013 | 26/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.08834 | -0.007 | 22/32 | -0.20637 | -0.007 | 6/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.133271 | +0.007 | 6/32 | -0.055274 | +0.007 | 10/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.045144 | +0.002 | 11/32 | -0.186136 | +0.002 | 2/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.11995 | -0.003 | 8/32 | +0.120105 | -0.003 | 25/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.25262 | +0.009 | 3/32 | -0.03662 | +0.009 | 16/32 |
| 4th down | -0.0784 | +0.184 | 17/32 | -0.9828 | +0.184 | 6/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.45816 | +0.031 | 1/32 | -0.53118 | +0.031 | 3/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.19813 | +0.050 | 11/32 | -0.50710 | +0.050 | 6/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.17333 | -0.026 | 8/32 | +0.36534 | -0.026 | 28/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.17727 | -0.014 | 25/32 | +0.40931 | -0.014 | 31/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.056138 | -0.029 | 9/32 | -0.013139 | -0.029 | 18/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.27590 | +0.036 | 3/32 | -0.12597 | +0.036 | 5/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.10750 | +0.053 | 11/32 | -0.49044 | +0.053 | 2/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.168166 | +0.029 | 7/32 | +0.057210 | +0.029 | 21/32 |
| Under center | +0.038139 | -0.031 | 9/32 | -0.345101 | -0.031 | 1/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.090293 | +0.001 | 7/32 | -0.089289 | +0.001 | 5/32 |
| No huddle | +0.55312 | +0.079 | 3/32 | +0.13922 | +0.079 | 17/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.