EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
KC, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from KC's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.161257 | +0.006 | 4/32 | -0.035268 | +0.006 | 9/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.161146 | +0.004 | 7/32 | -0.047115 | +0.010 | 9/32 |
| Away | +0.161111 | +0.010 | 4/32 | -0.027153 | +0.004 | 14/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.176191 | -0.021 | 2/32 | +0.043218 | +0.000 | 22/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.14559 | -0.013 | 7/25 | +0.06380 | -0.013 | 16/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.166198 | +0.013 | 5/32 | -0.077188 | +0.013 | 6/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.19680 | +0.029 | 3/29 | +0.20765 | +0.029 | 27/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.145118 | +0.019 | 5/20 | -0.227123 | +0.019 | 3/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.17952 | +0.020 | 6/29 | -0.12473 | +0.020 | 5/29 |
| 10–14 mph | +0.161146 | +0.040 | 4/18 | -0.047115 | +0.040 | 4/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.166198 | +0.029 | 5/32 | -0.077188 | +0.029 | 4/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.36273 | -0.001 | 1/32 | -0.47624 | -0.028 | 2/32 |
| Tied | +0.13797 | -0.010 | 5/32 | +0.05170 | -0.010 | 20/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.08460 | -0.028 | 9/31 | +0.099137 | -0.001 | 21/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.12727 | +0.072 | 19/27 | -0.41137 | +0.035 | 1/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.205216 | -0.010 | 1/32 | +0.023213 | -0.010 | 20/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.07041 | +0.028 | 18/30 | -0.26255 | +0.044 | 5/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.25651 | -0.038 | 1/32 | +0.18364 | -0.038 | 30/32 |
| Q2 | +0.08576 | +0.021 | 11/32 | -0.03467 | +0.021 | 12/32 |
| Q3 | +0.14760 | +0.016 | 7/32 | -0.28058 | +0.016 | 1/32 |
| Q4 | +0.17654 | +0.013 | 5/32 | -0.05175 | +0.013 | 10/32 |
| OT | +0.22016 | +0.183 | 6/10 | +0.2984 | +0.183 | 6/10 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.09332 | -0.007 | 23/32 | +0.14039 | -0.007 | 27/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.197225 | +0.007 | 1/32 | -0.065229 | +0.007 | 5/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.114115 | +0.002 | 4/32 | +0.052115 | +0.002 | 21/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.02584 | -0.003 | 15/32 | -0.11186 | -0.003 | 9/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.38451 | +0.009 | 2/32 | -0.00257 | +0.009 | 19/32 |
| 4th down | +1.5247 | +0.184 | 6/32 | -0.57410 | +0.184 | 10/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.08921 | +0.031 | 15/32 | +0.06410 | +0.031 | 19/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +1.11410 | +0.050 | 1/32 | +0.18119 | +0.050 | 18/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.33020 | -0.026 | 5/32 | -0.15128 | -0.026 | 14/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.16228 | -0.014 | 9/32 | +0.09735 | -0.014 | 23/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.048115 | -0.029 | 11/32 | -0.087125 | -0.029 | 9/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.48561 | +0.036 | 2/32 | -0.02180 | +0.036 | 16/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.03253 | +0.053 | 17/32 | -0.01428 | +0.053 | 9/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.120153 | +0.029 | 11/32 | -0.117163 | +0.029 | 3/32 |
| Under center | +0.220104 | -0.031 | 1/32 | +0.091105 | -0.031 | 27/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.164256 | +0.001 | 4/32 | -0.019257 | +0.001 | 17/32 |
| No huddle | -0.7191 | +0.079 | 31/32 | -0.42411 | +0.079 | 6/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.