EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
LA, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from LA's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.006285 | +0.006 | 13/32 | -0.107249 | +0.006 | 3/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.24258 | +0.004 | 3/32 | -0.38458 | +0.010 | 1/32 |
| Away | +0.007167 | +0.010 | 19/32 | -0.133126 | +0.004 | 6/32 |
| Neutral site | -0.22660 | -0.015 | 7/8 | +0.19065 | -0.015 | 7/8 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.007167 | -0.021 | 13/32 | -0.133126 | +0.000 | 4/32 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | +0.24258 | +0.117 | 3/10 | -0.38458 | -0.114 | 1/10 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.004118 | -0.013 | 13/25 | -0.080123 | -0.013 | 9/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.007167 | +0.013 | 16/32 | -0.133126 | +0.013 | 3/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.01583 | +0.029 | 16/29 | -0.28061 | +0.029 | 1/29 |
| 80°F+ | -0.00084 | +0.019 | 13/20 | +0.00565 | +0.019 | 8/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.01583 | +0.020 | 13/29 | -0.28061 | +0.020 | 1/29 |
| 10–14 mph | -0.00084 | +0.040 | 10/18 | +0.00565 | +0.040 | 8/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.00084 | +0.029 | 17/32 | +0.00565 | +0.029 | 13/32 |
| Rain or snow | +0.01583 | -0.140 | 1/9 | -0.28061 | -0.140 | 1/9 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.08281 | +0.035 | 22/29 | -0.16141 | +0.072 | 5/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.14659 | -0.001 | 7/32 | +0.17332 | -0.028 | 31/32 |
| Tied | -0.06249 | -0.010 | 21/32 | -0.26358 | -0.010 | 5/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.14431 | -0.028 | 23/31 | +0.10454 | -0.001 | 22/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.11265 | +0.072 | 11/27 | -0.24964 | +0.035 | 4/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.14258 | +0.044 | 24/29 | -0.17042 | +0.028 | 8/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.037161 | -0.010 | 13/32 | -0.020143 | -0.010 | 15/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.06066 | +0.028 | 11/30 | -0.26064 | +0.044 | 6/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.10061 | -0.038 | 10/32 | -0.20360 | -0.038 | 6/32 |
| Q2 | +0.00971 | +0.021 | 15/32 | -0.06271 | +0.021 | 9/32 |
| Q3 | -0.11869 | +0.016 | 27/32 | +0.03957 | +0.016 | 20/32 |
| Q4 | +0.03684 | +0.013 | 16/32 | -0.20161 | +0.013 | 4/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.12332 | -0.007 | 9/32 | -0.04028 | -0.007 | 12/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.009253 | +0.007 | 17/32 | -0.115221 | +0.007 | 2/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.025125 | +0.002 | 18/32 | -0.105103 | +0.002 | 8/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.074101 | -0.003 | 9/32 | +0.17285 | -0.003 | 28/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.01653 | +0.009 | 13/32 | -0.42655 | +0.009 | 1/32 |
| 4th down | -0.2996 | +0.184 | 20/32 | -1.1716 | +0.184 | 5/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.43217 | +0.031 | 4/32 | -0.40721 | +0.031 | 6/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -1.28211 | +0.050 | 32/32 | -0.25315 | +0.050 | 11/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.23625 | -0.026 | 7/32 | -0.58319 | -0.026 | 2/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.14329 | -0.014 | 24/32 | -0.28322 | -0.014 | 5/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.055126 | -0.029 | 10/32 | -0.10594 | -0.029 | 4/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.03189 | +0.036 | 15/32 | -0.16090 | +0.036 | 4/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.09241 | +0.053 | 24/32 | +0.09143 | +0.053 | 21/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.060162 | +0.029 | 13/32 | -0.167155 | +0.029 | 2/32 |
| Under center | -0.066123 | -0.031 | 18/32 | -0.00894 | -0.031 | 20/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.049248 | +0.001 | 21/32 | -0.097237 | +0.001 | 3/32 |
| No huddle | +0.37437 | +0.079 | 7/32 | -0.29512 | +0.079 | 7/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.