EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
LAC, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from LAC's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.192328 | +0.006 | 32/32 | -0.053317 | +0.006 | 7/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.287188 | +0.004 | 32/32 | -0.038194 | +0.010 | 11/32 |
| Away | -0.064140 | +0.010 | 22/32 | -0.077123 | +0.004 | 9/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.197273 | -0.021 | 31/32 | -0.109245 | +0.000 | 6/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.287188 | -0.013 | 24/25 | -0.038194 | -0.013 | 11/25 |
| Outdoors | -0.064140 | +0.013 | 25/32 | -0.077123 | +0.013 | 7/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.064140 | +0.029 | 22/29 | -0.077123 | +0.029 | 6/29 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.06371 | +0.020 | 20/29 | -0.09058 | +0.020 | 8/29 |
| 10–14 mph | -0.06569 | +0.040 | 15/18 | -0.06565 | +0.040 | 3/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.064140 | +0.029 | 26/32 | -0.077123 | +0.029 | 5/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.05175 | +0.035 | 14/29 | -0.01740 | +0.072 | 9/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -0.187139 | -0.001 | 29/32 | -0.022114 | -0.028 | 14/32 |
| Tied | -0.29277 | -0.010 | 29/32 | -0.18581 | -0.010 | 9/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.75127 | -0.028 | 30/31 | +0.01771 | -0.001 | 15/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.20710 | +0.072 | 8/27 | +0.01711 | +0.035 | 12/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.07280 | +0.044 | 17/29 | +0.03464 | +0.028 | 16/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.201235 | -0.010 | 30/32 | -0.067251 | -0.010 | 10/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.76113 | +0.028 | 30/30 | -1.1232 | +0.044 | 1/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.27973 | -0.038 | 30/32 | -0.33876 | -0.038 | 2/32 |
| Q2 | -0.16178 | +0.021 | 28/32 | +0.20595 | +0.021 | 32/32 |
| Q3 | +0.25981 | +0.016 | 2/32 | -0.05764 | +0.016 | 11/32 |
| Q4 | -0.53096 | +0.013 | 32/32 | -0.08582 | +0.013 | 8/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.53332 | -0.007 | 32/32 | +0.18236 | -0.007 | 30/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.155296 | +0.007 | 31/32 | -0.083281 | +0.007 | 4/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.106140 | +0.002 | 27/32 | -0.110143 | +0.002 | 7/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.260111 | -0.003 | 32/32 | +0.063105 | -0.003 | 22/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.13869 | +0.009 | 27/32 | -0.21764 | +0.009 | 7/32 |
| 4th down | -1.2028 | +0.184 | 29/32 | +1.2475 | +0.184 | 25/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.07418 | +0.031 | 16/32 | -0.86714 | +0.031 | 2/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.61713 | +0.050 | 29/32 | +0.42516 | +0.050 | 23/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.07438 | -0.026 | 19/32 | -0.25134 | -0.026 | 10/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.09060 | -0.014 | 20/32 | +0.00425 | -0.014 | 17/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.389154 | -0.029 | 32/32 | -0.156140 | -0.029 | 3/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.03873 | +0.036 | 22/32 | +0.05999 | +0.036 | 20/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.13041 | +0.053 | 10/32 | -0.01753 | +0.053 | 8/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.251218 | +0.029 | 32/32 | +0.049170 | +0.029 | 17/32 |
| Under center | -0.074110 | -0.031 | 19/32 | -0.171147 | -0.031 | 4/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.158312 | +0.001 | 32/32 | -0.096305 | +0.001 | 4/32 |
| No huddle | -0.83916 | +0.079 | 32/32 | +1.03612 | +0.079 | 32/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.