EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
LV, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from LV's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.021331 | +0.006 | 12/32 | -0.012327 | +0.006 | 17/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.022145 | +0.004 | 19/32 | -0.042114 | +0.010 | 10/32 |
| Away | +0.021186 | +0.010 | 18/32 | +0.004213 | +0.004 | 17/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.034266 | -0.021 | 12/32 | +0.035272 | +0.000 | 18/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.034271 | -0.013 | 11/25 | -0.119255 | -0.013 | 8/25 |
| Outdoors | -0.03460 | +0.013 | 22/32 | +0.36672 | +0.013 | 32/32 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.03460 | +0.029 | 24/32 | +0.36672 | +0.029 | 32/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.19642 | +0.035 | 10/29 | +0.36636 | +0.072 | 24/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.17778 | -0.001 | 4/32 | -0.14540 | -0.028 | 11/32 |
| Tied | +0.089110 | -0.010 | 11/32 | -0.12474 | -0.010 | 11/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.08469 | -0.028 | 17/31 | +0.125127 | -0.001 | 24/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.59432 | +0.072 | 27/27 | -0.36050 | +0.035 | 2/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.17051 | +0.044 | 10/29 | +0.06460 | +0.028 | 18/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.059226 | -0.010 | 12/32 | +0.078214 | -0.010 | 26/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.27854 | +0.028 | 27/30 | -0.45953 | +0.044 | 3/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.04264 | -0.038 | 13/32 | +0.06182 | -0.038 | 22/32 |
| Q2 | +0.15498 | +0.021 | 6/32 | +0.12384 | +0.021 | 25/32 |
| Q3 | -0.11580 | +0.016 | 26/32 | +0.27676 | +0.016 | 29/32 |
| Q4 | -0.01889 | +0.013 | 20/32 | -0.47385 | +0.013 | 2/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.13843 | -0.007 | 7/32 | -0.03935 | -0.007 | 13/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.004288 | +0.007 | 16/32 | -0.009292 | +0.007 | 16/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.090142 | +0.002 | 9/32 | -0.037149 | +0.002 | 10/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.132110 | -0.003 | 27/32 | +0.116105 | -0.003 | 24/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.20971 | +0.009 | 4/32 | -0.15567 | +0.009 | 9/32 |
| 4th down | -0.7558 | +0.184 | 25/32 | -0.0436 | +0.184 | 14/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.17816 | +0.031 | 13/32 | +0.02626 | +0.031 | 17/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.47821 | +0.050 | 10/32 | -0.56113 | +0.050 | 5/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.05734 | -0.026 | 11/32 | -0.13528 | -0.026 | 15/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.11731 | -0.014 | 11/32 | -0.02241 | -0.014 | 14/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.053145 | -0.029 | 21/32 | -0.071158 | -0.029 | 10/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.126100 | +0.036 | 8/32 | -0.04677 | +0.036 | 12/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.02655 | +0.053 | 21/32 | +0.23251 | +0.053 | 28/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.131185 | +0.029 | 9/32 | -0.046227 | +0.029 | 8/32 |
| Under center | -0.118146 | -0.031 | 23/32 | +0.065100 | -0.031 | 25/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.016307 | +0.001 | 12/32 | -0.032308 | +0.001 | 14/32 |
| No huddle | +0.09324 | +0.079 | 13/32 | +0.31219 | +0.079 | 23/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.