EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
MIA, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from MIA's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.122291 | +0.006 | 30/32 | +0.106304 | +0.006 | 28/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.086137 | +0.004 | 22/32 | +0.168114 | +0.010 | 30/32 |
| Away | -0.153154 | +0.010 | 28/32 | +0.068190 | +0.004 | 21/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.094236 | -0.021 | 24/32 | +0.142239 | +0.000 | 29/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.24194 | -0.013 | 23/25 | -0.043140 | -0.013 | 10/25 |
| Outdoors | -0.065197 | +0.013 | 26/32 | +0.233164 | +0.013 | 29/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.01560 | +0.029 | 19/29 | +0.38050 | +0.029 | 29/29 |
| 80°F+ | -0.12473 | +0.019 | 17/20 | +0.17952 | +0.019 | 16/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.075133 | +0.020 | 22/29 | +0.277102 | +0.020 | 26/29 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.065197 | +0.029 | 27/32 | +0.233164 | +0.029 | 29/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.080142 | +0.035 | 21/29 | -0.16886 | +0.072 | 4/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -0.159126 | -0.001 | 25/32 | +0.158144 | -0.028 | 29/32 |
| Tied | -0.17723 | -0.010 | 23/32 | +0.32274 | -0.010 | 32/32 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.098130 | +0.044 | 20/29 | +0.026140 | +0.028 | 14/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.141161 | -0.010 | 28/32 | +0.173164 | -0.010 | 32/32 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.03273 | -0.038 | 14/32 | +0.26969 | -0.038 | 31/32 |
| Q2 | -0.22180 | +0.021 | 30/32 | +0.08984 | +0.021 | 23/32 |
| Q3 | -0.13367 | +0.016 | 28/32 | +0.21974 | +0.016 | 27/32 |
| Q4 | -0.15771 | +0.013 | 29/32 | -0.13377 | +0.013 | 6/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.00433 | -0.007 | 16/32 | -0.03221 | -0.007 | 14/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.138258 | +0.007 | 29/32 | +0.116283 | +0.007 | 28/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.141122 | +0.002 | 30/32 | +0.086138 | +0.002 | 27/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.21996 | -0.003 | 31/32 | -0.087103 | -0.003 | 10/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.20465 | +0.009 | 5/32 | +0.48460 | +0.009 | 31/32 |
| 4th down | -1.3168 | +0.184 | 30/32 | +0.0373 | +0.184 | 16/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.03011 | +0.031 | 17/32 | +0.64520 | +0.031 | 31/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.66721 | +0.050 | 4/32 | +1.18117 | +0.050 | 32/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.03333 | -0.026 | 17/32 | -0.17023 | -0.026 | 12/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.10033 | -0.014 | 21/32 | +0.23921 | -0.014 | 28/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.142128 | -0.029 | 28/32 | -0.044129 | -0.029 | 14/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.11983 | +0.036 | 29/32 | +0.27286 | +0.036 | 29/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.08747 | +0.053 | 23/32 | +0.13868 | +0.053 | 22/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.112173 | +0.029 | 26/32 | +0.079177 | +0.029 | 25/32 |
| Under center | -0.135118 | -0.031 | 26/32 | +0.142127 | -0.031 | 31/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.128284 | +0.001 | 28/32 | +0.123295 | +0.001 | 29/32 |
| No huddle | +0.1227 | +0.079 | 12/32 | -0.4689 | +0.079 | 5/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.