EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
MIN, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from MIN's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.104314 | +0.006 | 28/32 | -0.235294 | +0.006 | 1/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.006136 | +0.004 | 20/32 | -0.203107 | +0.010 | 4/32 |
| Away | -0.178178 | +0.010 | 32/32 | -0.253187 | +0.004 | 2/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.142253 | -0.021 | 28/32 | -0.251226 | +0.000 | 1/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.056203 | -0.013 | 16/25 | -0.254152 | -0.013 | 4/25 |
| Outdoors | -0.191111 | +0.013 | 32/32 | -0.214142 | +0.013 | 2/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.07352 | +0.029 | 24/29 | -0.13873 | +0.029 | 4/29 |
| 80°F+ | -0.29559 | +0.019 | 20/20 | -0.29669 | +0.019 | 1/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.191111 | +0.020 | 28/29 | -0.214142 | +0.020 | 3/29 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.29559 | +0.029 | 32/32 | -0.29669 | +0.029 | 1/32 |
| Rain or snow | -0.07352 | -0.140 | 2/9 | -0.13873 | -0.140 | 6/9 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.05136 | +0.035 | 13/29 | -0.08224 | +0.072 | 8/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.08336 | -0.001 | 11/32 | +0.15529 | -0.028 | 28/32 |
| Tied | -0.00261 | -0.010 | 18/32 | -0.51216 | -0.010 | 1/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.199169 | -0.028 | 26/31 | -0.315184 | -0.001 | 1/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.30312 | +0.072 | 23/27 | -0.13241 | +0.035 | 8/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +1.0856 | +0.044 | 1/29 | -0.36924 | +0.028 | 2/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.102253 | -0.010 | 25/32 | -0.190227 | -0.010 | 1/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.24155 | +0.028 | 24/30 | -0.39343 | +0.044 | 4/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.24083 | -0.038 | 26/32 | -0.05256 | -0.038 | 16/32 |
| Q2 | -0.06879 | +0.021 | 22/32 | -0.13385 | +0.021 | 5/32 |
| Q3 | -0.29066 | +0.016 | 31/32 | -0.18578 | +0.016 | 5/32 |
| Q4 | +0.13986 | +0.013 | 7/32 | -0.53775 | +0.013 | 1/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.02826 | -0.007 | 19/32 | -0.21536 | -0.007 | 5/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.110288 | +0.007 | 28/32 | -0.238258 | +0.007 | 1/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.082125 | +0.002 | 24/32 | -0.192116 | +0.002 | 1/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.179102 | -0.003 | 30/32 | -0.119102 | -0.003 | 7/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.11284 | +0.009 | 25/32 | -0.42466 | +0.009 | 2/32 |
| 4th down | +1.7823 | +0.184 | 4/32 | -0.65410 | +0.184 | 9/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.50521 | +0.031 | 30/32 | +0.12612 | +0.031 | 21/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.48623 | +0.050 | 8/32 | -0.15915 | +0.050 | 12/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.25040 | -0.026 | 26/32 | -0.69539 | -0.026 | 1/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.04528 | -0.014 | 15/32 | -0.04538 | -0.014 | 11/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.183145 | -0.029 | 30/32 | -0.250148 | -0.029 | 2/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.039106 | +0.036 | 14/32 | -0.09369 | +0.036 | 8/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.32535 | +0.053 | 32/32 | -0.61439 | +0.053 | 1/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.136192 | +0.029 | 29/32 | -0.275179 | +0.029 | 1/32 |
| Under center | -0.052122 | -0.031 | 15/32 | -0.172115 | -0.031 | 3/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.139295 | +0.001 | 30/32 | -0.201264 | +0.001 | 1/32 |
| No huddle | +0.45419 | +0.079 | 6/32 | -0.53030 | +0.079 | 3/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.