EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
NE, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from NE's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.045332 | +0.006 | 10/32 | -0.012298 | +0.006 | 16/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.195125 | +0.004 | 5/32 | -0.186130 | +0.010 | 5/32 |
| Away | -0.045207 | +0.010 | 21/32 | +0.123168 | +0.004 | 26/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.113208 | -0.021 | 6/32 | +0.096179 | +0.000 | 25/32 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | -0.03653 | +0.117 | 8/10 | -0.31770 | -0.114 | 2/10 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Outdoors | +0.045332 | +0.013 | 12/32 | -0.012298 | +0.013 | 14/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.024197 | +0.029 | 15/29 | -0.076177 | +0.029 | 7/29 |
| 80°F+ | -0.25363 | +0.019 | 19/20 | +0.19461 | +0.019 | 17/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.130187 | +0.020 | 26/29 | -0.050180 | +0.020 | 12/29 |
| 10–14 mph | +0.18073 | +0.040 | 3/18 | +0.12758 | +0.040 | 14/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.045332 | +0.029 | 14/32 | -0.012298 | +0.029 | 10/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.18941 | +0.035 | 26/29 | +0.30933 | +0.072 | 22/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.16148 | -0.001 | 6/32 | -0.02010 | -0.028 | 15/32 |
| Tied | +0.181101 | -0.010 | 2/32 | -0.19556 | -0.010 | 8/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.09184 | -0.028 | 19/31 | +0.150112 | -0.001 | 27/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.07658 | +0.072 | 12/27 | -0.22487 | +0.035 | 5/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.07531 | +0.044 | 18/29 | +0.30933 | +0.028 | 28/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.148202 | -0.010 | 4/32 | -0.034194 | -0.010 | 14/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.12699 | +0.028 | 19/30 | -0.10371 | +0.044 | 12/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.25474 | -0.038 | 2/32 | -0.06668 | -0.038 | 14/32 |
| Q2 | -0.03282 | +0.021 | 19/32 | +0.02693 | +0.021 | 18/32 |
| Q3 | +0.06292 | +0.016 | 13/32 | -0.14359 | +0.016 | 7/32 |
| Q4 | -0.08184 | +0.013 | 26/32 | +0.08978 | +0.013 | 20/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.08837 | -0.007 | 21/32 | -0.06033 | -0.007 | 11/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.062295 | +0.007 | 10/32 | -0.006265 | +0.007 | 17/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.134149 | +0.002 | 29/32 | +0.019128 | +0.002 | 18/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.175105 | -0.003 | 6/32 | -0.11298 | -0.003 | 8/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.00870 | +0.009 | 12/32 | -0.00966 | +0.009 | 18/32 |
| 4th down | +2.1468 | +0.184 | 1/32 | +0.9156 | +0.184 | 24/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.12224 | +0.031 | 23/32 | +0.12517 | +0.031 | 20/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.51717 | +0.050 | 7/32 | -0.26027 | +0.050 | 10/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.22229 | -0.026 | 25/32 | +0.19522 | -0.026 | 25/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.19037 | -0.014 | 7/32 | -0.17729 | -0.014 | 9/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.086148 | -0.029 | 5/32 | -0.089143 | -0.029 | 7/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.044105 | +0.036 | 23/32 | +0.15677 | +0.036 | 23/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.00242 | +0.053 | 18/32 | +0.04649 | +0.053 | 15/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.219181 | +0.029 | 5/32 | -0.088179 | +0.029 | 5/32 |
| Under center | -0.163151 | -0.031 | 27/32 | +0.102119 | -0.031 | 29/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.041330 | +0.001 | 10/32 | -0.034270 | +0.001 | 13/32 |
| No huddle | +0.8212 | +0.079 | 2/32 | +0.20128 | +0.079 | 18/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.