EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
NO, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from NO's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.041347 | +0.006 | 23/32 | +0.095322 | +0.006 | 27/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.128193 | +0.004 | 24/32 | +0.144188 | +0.010 | 29/32 |
| Away | +0.069154 | +0.010 | 9/32 | +0.027134 | +0.004 | 18/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.064259 | -0.021 | 21/32 | +0.134245 | +0.000 | 28/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.078281 | -0.013 | 18/25 | +0.094265 | -0.013 | 18/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.12166 | +0.013 | 6/32 | +0.09957 | +0.013 | 25/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.12166 | +0.029 | 8/29 | +0.09957 | +0.029 | 21/29 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 10–14 mph | +0.12166 | +0.040 | 6/18 | +0.09957 | +0.040 | 12/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.12166 | +0.029 | 7/32 | +0.09957 | +0.029 | 24/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.04594 | +0.035 | 15/29 | +0.37439 | +0.072 | 25/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -0.049194 | -0.001 | 22/32 | -0.158138 | -0.028 | 10/32 |
| Tied | -0.03137 | -0.010 | 19/32 | +0.31999 | -0.010 | 31/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.35122 | -0.028 | 29/31 | +0.01641 | -0.001 | 13/31 |
| Leading 9+ | — | +0.072 | — | +1.1295 | +0.035 | 29/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.012129 | +0.044 | 14/29 | -0.00792 | +0.028 | 11/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.057210 | -0.010 | 21/32 | +0.119220 | -0.010 | 30/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.4638 | +0.028 | 29/30 | +0.50410 | +0.044 | 29/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.14558 | -0.038 | 22/32 | +0.13187 | -0.038 | 27/32 |
| Q2 | -0.07587 | +0.021 | 24/32 | +0.04794 | +0.021 | 20/32 |
| Q3 | -0.03585 | +0.016 | 19/32 | +0.04371 | +0.016 | 21/32 |
| Q4 | -0.022106 | +0.013 | 21/32 | +0.10960 | +0.013 | 24/32 |
| OT | +0.56211 | +0.183 | 1/10 | +0.52410 | +0.183 | 9/10 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.30544 | -0.007 | 3/32 | +0.06239 | -0.007 | 19/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.091303 | +0.007 | 26/32 | +0.100283 | +0.007 | 27/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.143143 | +0.002 | 31/32 | +0.042149 | +0.002 | 19/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.050116 | -0.003 | 19/32 | +0.235109 | -0.003 | 31/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.04175 | +0.009 | 15/32 | -0.06963 | +0.009 | 14/32 |
| 4th down | +1.27212 | +0.184 | 8/32 | +3.0351 | +0.184 | 32/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.30521 | +0.031 | 9/32 | -0.18121 | +0.031 | 10/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.51418 | +0.050 | 27/32 | +0.49617 | +0.050 | 25/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.00636 | -0.026 | 15/32 | -0.35825 | -0.026 | 5/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.37829 | -0.014 | 30/32 | +0.17918 | -0.014 | 25/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.105163 | -0.029 | 25/32 | +0.030128 | -0.029 | 24/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.010102 | +0.036 | 18/32 | +0.259104 | +0.036 | 28/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.24553 | +0.053 | 5/32 | -0.04872 | +0.053 | 6/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.006242 | +0.029 | 20/32 | +0.078158 | +0.029 | 23/32 |
| Under center | -0.120105 | -0.031 | 25/32 | +0.112164 | -0.031 | 30/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.065292 | +0.001 | 24/32 | +0.090308 | +0.001 | 26/32 |
| No huddle | +0.08755 | +0.079 | 14/32 | +0.21414 | +0.079 | 19/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.