EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
NYG, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from NYG's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.008340 | +0.006 | 15/32 | +0.044302 | +0.006 | 22/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.053194 | +0.004 | 14/32 | -0.035184 | +0.010 | 13/32 |
| Away | -0.088146 | +0.010 | 24/32 | +0.169118 | +0.004 | 28/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.097274 | -0.021 | 25/32 | -0.009244 | +0.000 | 16/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | -0.38458 | -0.013 | 25/25 | +0.24258 | -0.013 | 25/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.070282 | +0.013 | 11/32 | -0.003244 | +0.013 | 15/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.107128 | +0.029 | 26/29 | -0.176126 | +0.029 | 2/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.36366 | +0.019 | 1/20 | +0.27158 | +0.019 | 18/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.149131 | +0.020 | 9/29 | +0.017124 | +0.020 | 15/29 |
| 10–14 mph | -0.14663 | +0.040 | 18/18 | -0.14460 | +0.040 | 2/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.132219 | +0.029 | 6/32 | +0.043184 | +0.029 | 20/32 |
| Rain or snow | -0.14663 | -0.140 | 6/9 | -0.14460 | -0.140 | 5/9 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.05680 | +0.035 | 20/29 | +0.12439 | +0.072 | 18/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.04573 | -0.001 | 15/32 | +0.04266 | -0.028 | 20/32 |
| Tied | +0.06170 | -0.010 | 14/32 | +0.11850 | -0.010 | 25/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.05299 | -0.028 | 15/31 | -0.19498 | -0.001 | 4/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.03018 | +0.072 | 14/27 | +0.38649 | +0.035 | 26/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.04472 | +0.044 | 13/29 | +0.18757 | +0.028 | 23/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.050194 | -0.010 | 20/32 | -0.097193 | -0.010 | 7/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.05474 | +0.028 | 12/30 | +0.41152 | +0.044 | 28/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.09084 | -0.038 | 20/32 | +0.08159 | -0.038 | 23/32 |
| Q2 | -0.11593 | +0.021 | 26/32 | -0.18281 | +0.021 | 1/32 |
| Q3 | +0.13974 | +0.016 | 8/32 | +0.29467 | +0.016 | 32/32 |
| Q4 | +0.07774 | +0.013 | 11/32 | +0.06385 | +0.013 | 18/32 |
| OT | -0.02015 | +0.183 | 7/10 | -0.17210 | +0.183 | 3/10 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.00733 | -0.007 | 15/32 | -0.34253 | -0.007 | 1/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.009307 | +0.007 | 18/32 | +0.127249 | +0.007 | 29/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.086148 | +0.002 | 25/32 | +0.009138 | +0.002 | 17/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.083115 | -0.003 | 22/32 | +0.138102 | -0.003 | 26/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.17073 | +0.009 | 10/32 | +0.17860 | +0.009 | 24/32 |
| 4th down | +1.8344 | +0.184 | 3/32 | -6.2852 | +0.184 | 1/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.03219 | +0.031 | 21/32 | +0.27514 | +0.031 | 24/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.60111 | +0.050 | 5/32 | +0.25518 | +0.050 | 20/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.14943 | -0.026 | 10/32 | +0.08028 | -0.026 | 21/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.14125 | -0.014 | 23/32 | -0.36336 | -0.014 | 3/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.112132 | -0.029 | 3/32 | -0.000134 | -0.029 | 20/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.170139 | +0.036 | 31/32 | +0.36987 | +0.036 | 32/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.22344 | +0.053 | 6/32 | -0.12445 | +0.053 | 4/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.047198 | +0.029 | 15/32 | +0.071198 | +0.029 | 22/32 |
| Under center | -0.084142 | -0.031 | 20/32 | -0.006104 | -0.031 | 21/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.018318 | +0.001 | 15/32 | +0.014277 | +0.001 | 21/32 |
| No huddle | +0.13622 | +0.079 | 11/32 | +0.38425 | +0.079 | 29/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.