EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
NYJ, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from NYJ's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.025301 | +0.006 | 20/32 | -0.035331 | +0.006 | 11/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.129141 | +0.004 | 25/32 | -0.207128 | +0.010 | 3/32 |
| Away | +0.067160 | +0.010 | 10/32 | +0.074203 | +0.004 | 23/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.066237 | -0.021 | 22/32 | -0.016281 | +0.000 | 14/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.10964 | -0.013 | 9/25 | +0.20163 | -0.013 | 22/25 |
| Outdoors | -0.061237 | +0.013 | 24/32 | -0.090268 | +0.013 | 4/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.104105 | +0.029 | 25/29 | +0.005149 | +0.029 | 13/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.12664 | +0.019 | 7/20 | -0.14150 | +0.019 | 4/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.017169 | +0.020 | 16/29 | -0.032199 | +0.020 | 14/29 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.03996 | +0.029 | 15/32 | +0.017140 | +0.029 | 15/32 |
| Rain or snow | -0.129141 | -0.140 | 3/9 | -0.207128 | -0.140 | 2/9 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.23433 | +0.035 | 8/29 | -0.01230 | +0.072 | 10/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.07560 | -0.001 | 12/32 | +0.05461 | -0.028 | 21/32 |
| Tied | -0.04187 | -0.010 | 20/32 | -0.00798 | -0.010 | 16/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.130101 | -0.028 | 22/31 | -0.178104 | -0.001 | 5/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.15220 | +0.072 | 20/27 | +0.12638 | +0.035 | 20/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.47237 | +0.044 | 4/29 | +0.06860 | +0.028 | 19/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.070231 | -0.010 | 23/32 | -0.040226 | -0.010 | 13/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.26333 | +0.028 | 26/30 | -0.14745 | +0.044 | 8/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.07666 | -0.038 | 19/32 | -0.13386 | -0.038 | 9/32 |
| Q2 | +0.00787 | +0.021 | 16/32 | +0.01076 | +0.021 | 17/32 |
| Q3 | +0.08276 | +0.016 | 12/32 | +0.03366 | +0.016 | 19/32 |
| Q4 | -0.09869 | +0.013 | 27/32 | -0.04599 | +0.013 | 11/32 |
| OT | -0.8343 | +0.183 | 10/10 | +0.3494 | +0.183 | 7/10 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.40137 | -0.007 | 30/32 | -0.00833 | -0.007 | 16/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.028264 | +0.007 | 11/32 | -0.038298 | +0.007 | 13/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.019129 | +0.002 | 15/32 | -0.146143 | +0.002 | 4/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.11899 | -0.003 | 25/32 | +0.157114 | -0.003 | 27/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.04468 | +0.009 | 16/32 | -0.01566 | +0.009 | 17/32 |
| 4th down | +0.9475 | +0.184 | 9/32 | -0.9498 | +0.184 | 7/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.21416 | +0.031 | 26/32 | -0.01122 | +0.031 | 15/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.32316 | +0.050 | 25/32 | +0.53917 | +0.050 | 27/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.15736 | -0.026 | 9/32 | -0.36727 | -0.026 | 4/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.05037 | -0.014 | 14/32 | -0.21942 | -0.014 | 8/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.021139 | -0.029 | 14/32 | -0.020142 | -0.029 | 17/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.09193 | +0.036 | 28/32 | -0.04691 | +0.036 | 13/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.11832 | +0.053 | 26/32 | +0.08356 | +0.053 | 19/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.039179 | +0.029 | 17/32 | +0.012231 | +0.029 | 15/32 |
| Under center | -0.118122 | -0.031 | 24/32 | -0.142100 | -0.031 | 8/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.023288 | +0.001 | 18/32 | -0.039297 | +0.001 | 11/32 |
| No huddle | -0.07213 | +0.079 | 24/32 | -0.00334 | +0.079 | 11/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.