EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
PHI, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from PHI's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.111302 | +0.006 | 29/32 | +0.052347 | +0.006 | 24/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.137114 | +0.004 | 26/32 | +0.041152 | +0.010 | 20/32 |
| Away | -0.086126 | +0.010 | 23/32 | +0.095123 | +0.004 | 25/32 |
| Neutral site | -0.11262 | -0.015 | 6/8 | +0.00172 | -0.015 | 5/8 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.140249 | -0.021 | 27/32 | +0.046278 | +0.000 | 23/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Outdoors | -0.111302 | +0.013 | 28/32 | +0.052347 | +0.013 | 23/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.279111 | +0.029 | 29/29 | +0.069153 | +0.029 | 17/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.035129 | +0.019 | 10/20 | +0.060122 | +0.019 | 12/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.110240 | +0.020 | 25/29 | +0.065275 | +0.020 | 20/29 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.068241 | +0.029 | 28/32 | +0.063264 | +0.029 | 23/32 |
| Rain or snow | -0.28061 | -0.140 | 9/9 | +0.01583 | -0.140 | 9/9 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.09622 | +0.035 | 23/29 | +0.10023 | +0.072 | 17/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -0.02996 | -0.001 | 21/32 | -0.06150 | -0.028 | 12/32 |
| Tied | -0.08475 | -0.010 | 22/32 | -0.04564 | -0.010 | 13/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.12188 | -0.028 | 21/31 | +0.076152 | -0.001 | 20/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.54921 | +0.072 | 26/27 | +0.17358 | +0.035 | 22/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.61917 | +0.044 | 29/29 | -0.04542 | +0.028 | 10/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.042258 | -0.010 | 19/32 | +0.013244 | -0.010 | 18/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.44627 | +0.028 | 28/30 | +0.27361 | +0.044 | 24/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.32369 | -0.038 | 31/32 | -0.03072 | -0.038 | 18/32 |
| Q2 | +0.36192 | +0.021 | 2/32 | -0.05889 | +0.021 | 10/32 |
| Q3 | -0.56971 | +0.016 | 32/32 | -0.06184 | +0.016 | 10/32 |
| Q4 | -0.05570 | +0.013 | 23/32 | +0.299102 | +0.013 | 31/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.34143 | -0.007 | 2/32 | +0.06640 | -0.007 | 20/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.186259 | +0.007 | 32/32 | +0.050307 | +0.007 | 23/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.072118 | +0.002 | 23/32 | +0.002149 | +0.002 | 15/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.124103 | -0.003 | 26/32 | -0.075111 | -0.003 | 12/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.02771 | +0.009 | 14/32 | +0.23075 | +0.009 | 26/32 |
| 4th down | -1.00810 | +0.184 | 27/32 | +0.72812 | +0.184 | 23/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.79414 | +0.031 | 32/32 | +0.53023 | +0.031 | 29/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.48619 | +0.050 | 9/32 | +0.37412 | +0.050 | 22/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.00238 | -0.026 | 14/32 | +0.01540 | -0.026 | 20/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.42925 | -0.014 | 31/32 | -0.23441 | -0.014 | 7/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.112148 | -0.029 | 26/32 | +0.042133 | -0.029 | 25/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.00184 | +0.036 | 20/32 | +0.18997 | +0.036 | 27/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.13445 | +0.053 | 28/32 | +0.04876 | +0.053 | 16/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.069210 | +0.029 | 23/32 | +0.057200 | +0.029 | 20/32 |
| Under center | -0.20692 | -0.031 | 30/32 | +0.045147 | -0.031 | 23/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.134267 | +0.001 | 29/32 | +0.035317 | +0.001 | 24/32 |
| No huddle | +0.06935 | +0.079 | 17/32 | +0.23330 | +0.079 | 21/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.