EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
PIT, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from PIT's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.024321 | +0.006 | 19/32 | -0.002303 | +0.006 | 19/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.035182 | +0.004 | 16/32 | -0.036188 | +0.010 | 12/32 |
| Away | -0.101139 | +0.010 | 25/32 | +0.052115 | +0.004 | 19/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Short week (≤5 days) | +0.11969 | +0.186 | 6/8 | +0.12662 | +0.186 | 4/8 |
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.085129 | -0.021 | 23/32 | +0.118110 | +0.000 | 26/32 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | +0.19858 | +0.117 | 5/10 | -0.00171 | -0.114 | 9/10 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Outdoors | -0.024321 | +0.013 | 21/32 | -0.002303 | +0.013 | 16/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.073263 | +0.029 | 23/29 | -0.003232 | +0.029 | 12/29 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.286135 | +0.020 | 29/29 | -0.207113 | +0.020 | 4/29 |
| 10–14 mph | +0.152128 | +0.040 | 5/18 | +0.191119 | +0.040 | 16/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.024321 | +0.029 | 23/32 | -0.002303 | +0.029 | 12/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.18271 | +0.035 | 25/29 | -0.35537 | +0.072 | 3/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.12871 | -0.001 | 8/32 | +0.07849 | -0.028 | 22/32 |
| Tied | +0.11966 | -0.010 | 7/32 | +0.12645 | -0.010 | 26/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.094107 | -0.028 | 20/31 | +0.057152 | -0.001 | 17/31 |
| Leading 9+ | -0.2486 | +0.072 | 22/27 | -0.29220 | +0.035 | 3/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.06178 | +0.044 | 16/29 | -0.22674 | +0.028 | 5/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.007216 | -0.010 | 16/32 | +0.090209 | -0.010 | 27/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | -0.04627 | +0.028 | 17/30 | -0.14520 | +0.044 | 9/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.14580 | -0.038 | 7/32 | +0.05559 | -0.038 | 21/32 |
| Q2 | -0.040102 | +0.021 | 20/32 | +0.17280 | +0.021 | 29/32 |
| Q3 | -0.25254 | +0.016 | 30/32 | +0.05988 | +0.016 | 22/32 |
| Q4 | -0.01885 | +0.013 | 19/32 | -0.30276 | +0.013 | 3/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.00442 | -0.007 | 17/32 | +0.12731 | -0.007 | 25/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.027279 | +0.007 | 22/32 | -0.017272 | +0.007 | 15/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.117139 | +0.002 | 3/32 | +0.047134 | +0.002 | 20/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.166110 | -0.003 | 29/32 | -0.02498 | -0.003 | 16/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.15066 | +0.009 | 30/32 | -0.26264 | +0.009 | 6/32 |
| 4th down | +0.7176 | +0.184 | 11/32 | +1.7427 | +0.184 | 26/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.35720 | +0.031 | 7/32 | -0.15123 | +0.031 | 12/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.67124 | +0.050 | 30/32 | +0.03313 | +0.050 | 16/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.04322 | -0.026 | 18/32 | -0.49228 | -0.026 | 3/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.16535 | -0.014 | 8/32 | +0.19932 | -0.014 | 27/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.035161 | -0.029 | 19/32 | +0.110126 | -0.029 | 30/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.08188 | +0.036 | 26/32 | -0.174120 | +0.036 | 2/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.01637 | +0.053 | 19/32 | -0.00725 | +0.053 | 10/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.110215 | +0.029 | 25/32 | +0.053207 | +0.029 | 18/32 |
| Under center | +0.152106 | -0.031 | 3/32 | -0.12396 | -0.031 | 9/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.026291 | +0.001 | 19/32 | +0.003294 | +0.001 | 20/32 |
| No huddle | -0.00730 | +0.079 | 22/32 | -0.1709 | +0.079 | 8/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.