EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
SEA, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from SEA's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.070307 | +0.006 | 26/32 | -0.116316 | +0.006 | 2/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.176170 | +0.004 | 29/32 | -0.106199 | +0.010 | 7/32 |
| Away | +0.062137 | +0.010 | 11/32 | -0.133117 | +0.004 | 5/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.176188 | -0.021 | 29/32 | -0.083195 | +0.000 | 8/32 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | +0.14670 | +0.117 | 6/10 | -0.28150 | -0.114 | 3/10 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.14670 | -0.013 | 6/25 | -0.28150 | -0.013 | 3/25 |
| Outdoors | -0.133237 | +0.013 | 29/32 | -0.085266 | +0.013 | 5/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.032174 | +0.029 | 20/29 | -0.060209 | +0.029 | 8/29 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.036107 | +0.020 | 18/29 | -0.078142 | +0.020 | 9/29 |
| 10–14 mph | -0.02667 | +0.040 | 12/18 | -0.02467 | +0.040 | 6/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.133237 | +0.029 | 29/32 | -0.085266 | +0.029 | 3/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.33124 | +0.035 | 4/29 | -0.6973 | +0.072 | 1/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -0.094115 | -0.001 | 24/32 | -0.27271 | -0.028 | 5/32 |
| Tied | -0.29173 | -0.010 | 28/32 | -0.082105 | -0.010 | 12/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.30741 | -0.028 | 28/31 | -0.15681 | -0.001 | 6/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.28354 | +0.072 | 5/27 | +0.10756 | +0.035 | 18/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.88120 | +0.044 | 2/29 | -0.36632 | +0.028 | 3/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.221222 | -0.010 | 31/32 | -0.124228 | -0.010 | 4/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.15465 | +0.028 | 9/30 | +0.05956 | +0.044 | 18/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.24164 | -0.038 | 27/32 | -0.22084 | -0.038 | 5/32 |
| Q2 | -0.22497 | +0.021 | 31/32 | +0.00578 | +0.021 | 13/32 |
| Q3 | -0.00375 | +0.016 | 17/32 | -0.26366 | +0.016 | 2/32 |
| Q4 | +0.22471 | +0.013 | 4/32 | -0.01488 | +0.013 | 13/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.53135 | -0.007 | 31/32 | -0.18946 | -0.007 | 8/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.010272 | +0.007 | 20/32 | -0.104270 | +0.007 | 3/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.029146 | +0.002 | 20/32 | -0.149128 | +0.002 | 3/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.06896 | -0.003 | 20/32 | -0.127110 | -0.003 | 6/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.16358 | +0.009 | 31/32 | -0.29471 | +0.009 | 4/32 |
| 4th down | -0.1687 | +0.184 | 19/32 | +2.8486 | +0.184 | 31/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.36312 | +0.031 | 28/32 | -0.42116 | +0.031 | 5/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.13214 | +0.050 | 15/32 | -0.47923 | +0.050 | 8/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.21832 | -0.026 | 24/32 | -0.09732 | -0.026 | 16/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.46641 | -0.014 | 32/32 | +0.08239 | -0.014 | 21/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.007109 | -0.029 | 15/32 | -0.308150 | -0.029 | 1/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.080100 | +0.036 | 25/32 | -0.09298 | +0.036 | 9/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.08657 | +0.053 | 13/32 | +0.52429 | +0.053 | 32/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.082143 | +0.029 | 24/32 | -0.058193 | +0.029 | 6/32 |
| Under center | -0.059164 | -0.031 | 16/32 | -0.208123 | -0.031 | 2/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.074303 | +0.001 | 26/32 | -0.081305 | +0.001 | 6/32 |
| No huddle | +0.2834 | +0.079 | 9/32 | -1.09211 | +0.079 | 1/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.