EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
SF, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from SF's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.184288 | +0.006 | 2/32 | -0.076334 | +0.006 | 4/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.306166 | +0.004 | 1/32 | +0.068211 | +0.010 | 23/32 |
| Away | -0.17757 | +0.010 | 31/32 | -0.41463 | +0.004 | 1/32 |
| Neutral site | +0.19065 | -0.015 | 2/8 | -0.22660 | -0.015 | 2/8 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.126173 | -0.021 | 5/32 | -0.051214 | +0.000 | 11/32 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | +0.38050 | +0.117 | 2/10 | -0.01560 | -0.114 | 8/10 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.19065 | -0.013 | 3/25 | -0.22660 | -0.013 | 6/25 |
| Outdoors | +0.183223 | +0.013 | 2/32 | -0.043274 | +0.013 | 11/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.419103 | +0.029 | 1/29 | +0.080145 | +0.029 | 20/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.12363 | +0.019 | 8/20 | +0.04166 | +0.019 | 11/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.306166 | +0.020 | 2/29 | +0.068211 | +0.020 | 21/29 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.183223 | +0.029 | 2/32 | -0.043274 | +0.029 | 9/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.06358 | -0.001 | 14/32 | -0.46423 | -0.028 | 3/32 |
| Tied | +0.09579 | -0.010 | 10/32 | -0.20065 | -0.010 | 7/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.39485 | -0.028 | 2/31 | -0.08496 | -0.001 | 7/31 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.12966 | +0.072 | 10/27 | +0.043150 | +0.035 | 15/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.101179 | -0.010 | 8/32 | -0.182203 | -0.010 | 2/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.321109 | +0.028 | 3/30 | +0.089131 | +0.044 | 19/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | +0.15967 | -0.038 | 5/32 | -0.09382 | -0.038 | 11/32 |
| Q2 | +0.10277 | +0.021 | 9/32 | -0.15098 | +0.021 | 4/32 |
| Q3 | +0.18269 | +0.016 | 5/32 | -0.15371 | +0.016 | 6/32 |
| Q4 | +0.29475 | +0.013 | 2/32 | +0.09583 | +0.013 | 21/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.08632 | -0.007 | 10/32 | -0.19041 | -0.007 | 7/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.197256 | +0.007 | 2/32 | -0.060293 | +0.007 | 7/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.038133 | +0.002 | 14/32 | -0.111134 | +0.002 | 6/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.40297 | -0.003 | 1/32 | -0.213115 | -0.003 | 2/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.20155 | +0.009 | 6/32 | +0.13275 | +0.009 | 21/32 |
| 4th down | -1.0082 | +0.184 | 28/32 | +0.41910 | +0.184 | 18/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.02121 | +0.031 | 20/32 | +0.53122 | +0.031 | 30/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.01218 | +0.050 | 17/32 | +0.81814 | +0.050 | 31/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.70516 | -0.026 | 2/32 | -0.33939 | -0.026 | 6/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | +0.33732 | -0.014 | 4/32 | -0.40928 | -0.014 | 2/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.076113 | -0.029 | 6/32 | -0.088138 | -0.029 | 8/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.06990 | +0.036 | 12/32 | -0.022118 | +0.036 | 15/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.52053 | +0.053 | 1/32 | +0.01850 | +0.053 | 14/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.286135 | +0.029 | 1/32 | -0.016177 | +0.029 | 13/32 |
| Under center | +0.095153 | -0.031 | 6/32 | -0.143157 | -0.031 | 7/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.185287 | +0.001 | 1/32 | -0.109308 | +0.001 | 2/32 |
| No huddle | +0.1531 | +0.079 | 10/32 | +0.32326 | +0.079 | 24/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.