EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
TEN, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from TEN's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.140288 | +0.006 | 31/32 | +0.057329 | +0.006 | 25/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | -0.164166 | +0.004 | 28/32 | +0.098204 | +0.010 | 26/32 |
| Away | -0.107122 | +0.010 | 26/32 | -0.009125 | +0.004 | 15/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.140238 | -0.021 | 26/32 | +0.040265 | +0.000 | 21/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Outdoors | -0.140288 | +0.013 | 30/32 | +0.057329 | +0.013 | 24/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.107122 | +0.029 | 27/29 | -0.009125 | +0.029 | 11/29 |
| 80°F+ | -0.046103 | +0.019 | 14/20 | +0.080140 | +0.019 | 14/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.056165 | +0.020 | 19/29 | +0.095202 | +0.020 | 22/29 |
| 10–14 mph | -0.14460 | +0.040 | 17/18 | -0.14663 | +0.040 | 1/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.139228 | +0.029 | 30/32 | +0.105266 | +0.029 | 25/32 |
| Rain or snow | -0.14460 | -0.140 | 5/9 | -0.14663 | -0.140 | 4/9 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | -0.018132 | +0.035 | 17/29 | -0.004106 | +0.072 | 12/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -0.179105 | -0.001 | 28/32 | +0.018102 | -0.028 | 18/32 |
| Tied | -0.34448 | -0.010 | 31/32 | +0.07688 | -0.010 | 22/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.8653 | -0.028 | 31/31 | +0.32733 | -0.001 | 31/31 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | -0.004130 | +0.044 | 15/29 | +0.048119 | +0.028 | 17/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.251158 | -0.010 | 32/32 | +0.062210 | -0.010 | 24/32 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.34061 | -0.038 | 32/32 | -0.04783 | -0.038 | 17/32 |
| Q2 | -0.33858 | +0.021 | 32/32 | +0.192105 | +0.021 | 30/32 |
| Q3 | -0.07267 | +0.016 | 22/32 | +0.06181 | +0.016 | 23/32 |
| Q4 | +0.048102 | +0.013 | 14/32 | -0.04060 | +0.013 | 12/32 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.12542 | -0.007 | 25/32 | +0.23934 | -0.007 | 31/32 |
| Rest of game | -0.142246 | +0.007 | 30/32 | +0.036295 | +0.007 | 22/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | -0.183124 | +0.002 | 32/32 | +0.064144 | +0.002 | 23/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.09496 | -0.003 | 23/32 | +0.058113 | -0.003 | 21/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.06762 | +0.009 | 19/32 | -0.11966 | +0.009 | 12/32 |
| 4th down | -0.7336 | +0.184 | 24/32 | +1.8336 | +0.184 | 27/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | +0.28313 | +0.031 | 11/32 | -0.32613 | +0.031 | 7/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.19016 | +0.050 | 12/32 | -0.03417 | +0.050 | 15/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.32933 | -0.026 | 29/32 | -0.08536 | -0.026 | 17/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.36944 | -0.014 | 29/32 | -0.00231 | -0.014 | 15/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.022126 | -0.029 | 18/32 | +0.213115 | -0.029 | 32/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | -0.16174 | +0.036 | 30/32 | -0.014136 | +0.036 | 17/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | -0.21244 | +0.053 | 29/32 | -0.08047 | +0.053 | 5/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | -0.119207 | +0.029 | 28/32 | +0.121191 | +0.029 | 27/32 |
| Under center | -0.19381 | -0.031 | 29/32 | -0.031138 | -0.031 | 16/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | -0.153245 | +0.001 | 31/32 | +0.049314 | +0.001 | 25/32 |
| No huddle | -0.06543 | +0.079 | 23/32 | +0.22915 | +0.079 | 20/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.