EPA splits
Expected points added per play, cut by situation. A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles count) or a designed run. On offense higher is better; on defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Cells are tinted against the league in that same column, so a team is compared with what everyone does in that situation, not with its own average. Small numbers under each value are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
WAS, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from WAS's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | -0.009331 | +0.006 | 16/32 | +0.050327 | +0.006 | 23/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.034127 | +0.004 | 17/32 | +0.049155 | +0.010 | 21/32 |
| Away | +0.052140 | +0.010 | 12/32 | +0.131108 | +0.004 | 27/32 |
| Neutral site | -0.22664 | -0.015 | 8/8 | -0.08664 | -0.015 | 4/8 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Normal (6–8 days) | -0.031262 | -0.021 | 18/32 | +0.054274 | +0.000 | 24/32 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.03171 | -0.013 | 12/25 | +0.23155 | -0.013 | 24/25 |
| Outdoors | -0.020260 | +0.013 | 20/32 | +0.013272 | +0.013 | 18/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | -0.123131 | +0.029 | 28/29 | -0.055131 | +0.029 | 9/29 |
| 80°F+ | +0.07369 | +0.019 | 9/20 | +0.02753 | +0.019 | 9/20 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | -0.071133 | +0.020 | 21/29 | -0.035117 | +0.020 | 13/29 |
| 10–14 mph | -0.02467 | +0.040 | 11/18 | -0.02667 | +0.040 | 5/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | -0.020260 | +0.029 | 22/32 | +0.013272 | +0.029 | 14/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.21182 | +0.035 | 9/29 | +0.09022 | +0.072 | 16/27 |
| Trailing 1–8 | -0.17184 | -0.001 | 27/32 | +0.12295 | -0.028 | 23/32 |
| Tied | +0.05458 | -0.010 | 15/32 | -0.29035 | -0.010 | 2/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | -0.084107 | -0.028 | 18/31 | -0.083125 | -0.001 | 8/31 |
| Leading 9+ | — | +0.072 | — | +0.46450 | +0.035 | 28/29 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | +0.27879 | +0.044 | 7/29 | +0.07549 | +0.028 | 20/30 |
| Win prob 20–80% | -0.125213 | -0.010 | 27/32 | -0.077226 | -0.010 | 9/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.04339 | +0.028 | 13/30 | +0.57552 | +0.044 | 30/30 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.05670 | -0.038 | 17/32 | -0.16177 | -0.038 | 8/32 |
| Q2 | -0.01397 | +0.021 | 18/32 | +0.00585 | +0.021 | 14/32 |
| Q3 | -0.09569 | +0.016 | 24/32 | +0.01983 | +0.016 | 18/32 |
| Q4 | +0.12485 | +0.013 | 8/32 | +0.40267 | +0.013 | 32/32 |
| OT | -0.17210 | +0.183 | 8/10 | -0.02015 | +0.183 | 4/10 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | -0.22147 | -0.007 | 28/32 | -0.22530 | -0.007 | 4/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.026284 | +0.007 | 12/32 | +0.078297 | +0.007 | 24/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.042138 | +0.002 | 12/32 | -0.031148 | +0.002 | 12/32 |
| 2nd down | -0.025113 | -0.003 | 16/32 | -0.070106 | -0.003 | 13/32 |
| 3rd down | -0.14072 | +0.009 | 29/32 | +0.29269 | +0.009 | 28/32 |
| 4th down | +0.5188 | +0.184 | 14/32 | +2.0194 | +0.184 | 28/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.00614 | +0.031 | 19/32 | +0.35621 | +0.031 | 25/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | -0.14114 | +0.050 | 20/32 | +0.64214 | +0.050 | 28/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | -0.18344 | -0.026 | 23/32 | +0.10934 | -0.026 | 23/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.07636 | -0.014 | 19/32 | -0.31320 | -0.014 | 4/32 |
| Own 50–21 | -0.134141 | -0.029 | 27/32 | +0.012149 | -0.029 | 23/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.151111 | +0.036 | 6/32 | -0.028108 | +0.036 | 14/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.04543 | +0.053 | 16/32 | +0.47350 | +0.053 | 31/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.095236 | +0.029 | 12/32 | +0.153217 | +0.029 | 28/32 |
| Under center | -0.26695 | -0.031 | 31/32 | -0.154110 | -0.031 | 5/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.004303 | +0.001 | 14/32 | +0.025303 | +0.001 | 23/32 |
| No huddle | -0.15328 | +0.079 | 27/32 | +0.36124 | +0.079 | 27/32 |
Reading it. EPA/play is noisy: its standard deviation is about 1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry roughly ±0.14 of noise and a single season's split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also overlap with team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face defenses playing soft. Treat a split as a description of what happened, not a trait, until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.