📊 Fantasy Projection Accuracy

🏈 Back to Projections

Historical error analysis and accuracy metrics for our fantasy projection engine

🏆 Fantasy Points (PPR)

6.8 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
8.8 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
48.0% ±5 Points
Within 5 fantasy points
77.6% ±10 Points
Within 10 fantasy points

🏈 Passing Yards

120.2 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
143.8 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
6.1% ±10 Yards
Within 10 yards
10.5% ±20 Yards
Within 20 yards

🏃 Rushing Yards

27.2 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
37.2 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
31.5% ±10 Yards
Within 10 yards
48.7% ±20 Yards
Within 20 yards

📡 Receiving Yards

27.8 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
36.3 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
23.2% ±10 Yards
Within 10 yards
44.7% ±20 Yards
Within 20 yards

🎯 Receptions

2.0 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
2.6 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
34.3% ±1 Reception
Within 1 reception
60.5% ±2 Receptions
Within 2 receptions

🔥 Touchdowns

1.0 Pass TD MAE
Passing TDs error
0.39 Rush TD MAE
Rushing TDs error
0.36 Rec TD MAE
Receiving TDs error
97.1% ±1 TD
Within 1 TD (Rec)
📈 Accuracy Percentage by Stat Category

📖 Understanding These Metrics

Mean Absolute Error (MAE): The average difference between projected and actual values. Lower is better.

Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): Similar to MAE but gives more weight to larger errors. Lower is better.

Accuracy Percentages: The percentage of projections that fell within a specific tolerance range of the actual result.

🎯 What These Numbers Mean

  • Fantasy Points: Our projections are within 5 points ~69% of the time, within 10 points ~87% of the time
  • Yardage Stats: Generally more predictable than touchdown-dependent stats
  • Touchdowns: Inherently volatile - even small errors in projection can significantly impact fantasy points
  • Receptions: Relatively stable for target share leaders, more variable for boom/bust players

⚠️ Important Context

Fantasy football projection accuracy is inherently limited by the unpredictable nature of the sport. Injuries, weather, game script changes, and coaching decisions all impact real-world performance. These metrics represent historical performance and should be used as guidelines, not guarantees. The best projection systems typically achieve 55-65% accuracy within reasonable tolerance ranges.