Fantasy Projection Accuracy

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Historical error analysis and accuracy metrics for our fantasy projection engine

Grading may have stalled. Actuals last graded 2026-08-30 (21 days ago), latest season 2025. Grading runs Tuesdays 1am — check logs/cron_batch.log.
What this measures
Every figure below is a walk-forward backtest of the 2024 season: each week is projected using only games that had already been played, then scored against what actually happened. It is not a live track record, and 2024 is the season the engine's settings were chosen on — so it flatters the model slightly. Sample: 3114 player-weeks.

Fantasy Points (PPR)

5.2 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
6.9 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
59.1% ±5 Points
87.2% ±10 Points

Passing Yards

64.8 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
82.3 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
9.0% ±10 Yards
17.7% ±20 Yards

Rushing Yards

23.9 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
31.4 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
27.0% ±10 Yards
52.9% ±20 Yards

Receiving Yards

25.8 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
34.3 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
25.8% ±10 Yards
49.8% ±20 Yards

Receptions

1.7 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
2.2 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
40.9% ±1 Reception
67.4% ±2 Receptions

Touchdowns

0.97 Pass TD MAE
Passing TDs error
0.41 Rush TD MAE
Rushing TDs error
0.36 Rec TD MAE
Receiving TDs error
96.5% ±1 TD
Within 1 TD (Rec)
Accuracy Percentage by Stat Category
First Quarter & First Half Accuracy

There is no segment model. These take the full-game projection and scale it by the stat's empirical segment share (passing Q1 21.4%, 1H 50.0%; rushing 24.4% / 49.2%; receiving 21.4% / 50.0%, measured over 2021–25). That makes this the baseline any real Q1/1H model has to beat, not a model itself.

Read Skill R², not MAE. Raw MAE shrinks with the segment simply because the numbers are smaller, which makes the worst segment look like the best. Skill R² compares the projection to always guessing the average: 0 or below means no skill. All covers every projected player; Played drops those who recorded nothing — the gap between them is the cost of projecting players who never take the field.

Stat Pos Segment Sample n Norm. MAE Skill R² Bias
Passing QB Full game All 1,943 0.28 +0.083 1.00×
Passing QB Full game Played 1,924 0.27 +0.065 0.99×
Passing QB 1st half All 1,943 0.35 +0.077 0.98×
Passing QB 1st half Played 1,912 0.33 +0.055 0.97×
Passing QB 1st quarter All 1,943 0.49 +0.037 0.98×
Passing QB 1st quarter Played 1,886 0.46 +0.017 0.95×
Receiving RB Full game All 3,928 0.83 +0.062 0.87×
Receiving RB Full game Played 2,795 0.64 -0.116 0.69×
Receiving RB 1st half All 3,928 1.02 +0.054 0.87×
Receiving RB 1st half Played 2,083 0.67 -0.260 0.54×
Receiving RB 1st quarter All 3,928 1.30 +0.029 0.86×
Receiving RB 1st quarter Played 1,247 0.74 -0.494 0.33×
Receiving TE Full game All 3,454 0.63 +0.229 0.94×
Receiving TE Full game Played 2,995 0.55 +0.167 0.85×
Receiving TE 1st half All 3,454 0.81 +0.158 0.93×
Receiving TE 1st half Played 2,337 0.59 -0.017 0.71×
Receiving TE 1st quarter All 3,454 1.13 +0.081 0.93×
Receiving TE 1st quarter Played 1,432 0.66 -0.388 0.46×
Receiving WR Full game All 5,910 0.58 +0.220 0.98×
Receiving WR Full game Played 5,312 0.52 +0.159 0.92×
Receiving WR 1st half All 5,910 0.74 +0.161 0.97×
Receiving WR 1st half Played 4,459 0.57 +0.028 0.80×
Receiving WR 1st quarter All 5,910 1.04 +0.097 0.97×
Receiving WR 1st quarter Played 2,903 0.61 -0.254 0.55×
Rushing QB Full game All 1,943 0.72 +0.334 1.00×
Rushing QB Full game Played 1,527 0.58 +0.266 0.86×
Rushing QB 1st half All 1,943 0.88 +0.249 0.96×
Rushing QB 1st half Played 1,236 0.62 +0.114 0.71×
Rushing QB 1st quarter All 1,943 1.20 +0.134 1.09×
Rushing QB 1st quarter Played 779 0.66 -0.087 0.55×
Rushing RB Full game All 3,934 0.55 +0.255 0.93×
Rushing RB Full game Played 3,683 0.52 +0.212 0.90×
Rushing RB 1st half All 3,934 0.63 +0.216 0.91×
Rushing RB 1st half Played 3,413 0.56 +0.127 0.85×
Rushing RB 1st quarter All 3,934 0.77 +0.170 0.88×
Rushing RB 1st quarter Played 2,844 0.61 -0.003 0.72×

Every position carries positive skill, and it degrades smoothly rather than collapsing: first half keeps roughly 75–90% of full-game skill, first quarter 40–65%. So scaling by the segment share is a legitimate baseline — a dedicated 1H model has a real bar to clear, and a Q1 model has a lower one on much noisier ground. Built 2026-09-15T01:00:52+00:00.

Understanding These Metrics

Mean Absolute Error (MAE): The average difference between projected and actual values. Lower is better.

Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): Similar to MAE but gives more weight to larger errors. Lower is better.

Accuracy Percentages: The percentage of projections that fell within a specific tolerance range of the actual result.

What These Numbers Mean

  • Fantasy Points: projections land within 5 points 59% of the time and within 10 points 87% of the time
  • Yardage Stats: Generally more predictable than touchdown-dependent stats
  • Touchdowns: Inherently volatile - even small errors in projection can significantly impact fantasy points
  • Receptions: Relatively stable for target share leaders, more variable for boom/bust players
Important Context
Fantasy football projection accuracy is inherently limited by the unpredictable nature of the sport. Injuries, weather, game script changes, and coaching decisions all impact real-world performance. These metrics represent historical performance and should be used as guidelines, not guarantees. The best projection systems typically achieve 55-65% accuracy within reasonable tolerance ranges.