Model Performance
38
Settled Games
68.4%
Moneyline
68.4%
Puck Line
55.3%
Totals
59.5%
Avg Confidence
ROI Tracking (Flat $100 Bets)
Total P/L
+814.20
$3600 wagered
ROI
+22.6%
36 bets tracked
Monthly Accuracy
| Month | Games | ML Accuracy | Puck Line | Totals | Avg Conf | ML ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 68.0% | +2.0% |
| 2026-02 | 19 | 73.7% | 68.4% | 68.4% | 57.8% | +38.0% |
| 2026-01 | 17 | 64.7% | 64.7% | 35.3% | 60.4% | +5.9% |
Confidence Calibration
How well model confidence matches actual win rates. Ideally, 60% confidence picks should win ~60% of the time.
| Confidence Bucket | Games | Predicted Win% | Actual Win% | Calibration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70%+ | 5 | 74.2% | 60.0% | |
| 65-70% | 6 | 66.6% | 83.3% | |
| 60-65% | 3 | 61.9% | 66.7% | |
| 55-60% | 10 | 56.7% | 60.0% | |
| 50-55% | 14 | 52.7% | 71.4% |
Pick Breakdown
Away Favorite
68.8%
11/16 correct
Away Underdog
100.0%
1/1 correct
Home Favorite
66.7%
14/21 correct