NCAAB model performance
Stratified by power vs mid-major — testing the small-conference edge hypothesis
Hypothesis under test: mid-major lines may be sloppier (less professional handicapping)
and yield more model accuracy (and, if odds are weak, more ROI). Tracking accuracy by tier is one
way to spot it; ROI requires forward odds capture via the EV scanner.
All games
85.4%
212 settled
Power vs Power
33.3%
6 settled
Mid-major vs Mid-major
86.0%
121 settled
By home conference
Sample sizes vary — small-n rows are noisy, so wait for n > 50 before reading deeply.
| Conference | Tier | n | ML Accuracy | Avg Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | Power | 15 | 86.7% | 72.9% |
| SEC | Power | 15 | 93.3% | 77.1% |
| Big Ten | Power | 15 | 93.3% | 68.7% |
| Big 12 | Power | 15 | 80.0% | 70.1% |
| Sun Belt | Mid-major | 14 | 64.3% | 69.9% |
| Big East | Power | 11 | 81.8% | 71.1% |
| Atlantic 10 | Mid-major | 10 | 70.0% | 68.7% |
| C-USA | Mid-major | 8 | 100.0% | 88.9% |
| MVC | Mid-major | 8 | 87.5% | 85.5% |
| Pac-12 | Power | 8 | 75.0% | 68.6% |
| Mountain West | Mid-major | 8 | 87.5% | 79.2% |
| American | Power | 8 | 87.5% | 75.0% |
| Big West | Mid-major | 8 | 87.5% | 89.4% |
| Ivy | Mid-major | 6 | 66.7% | 76.1% |
| Southland | Mid-major | 6 | 100.0% | 88.0% |
| WCC | Mid-major | 6 | 83.3% | 78.1% |
| CAA | Mid-major | 5 | 100.0% | 91.4% |
| SWAC | Mid-major | 5 | 60.0% | 80.6% |
| WAC | Mid-major | 5 | 100.0% | 90.0% |
| MEAC | Mid-major | 4 | 100.0% | 84.8% |
| SoCon | Mid-major | 4 | 100.0% | 91.0% |
| Horizon | Mid-major | 4 | 100.0% | 89.8% |
| Big Sky | Mid-major | 4 | 100.0% | 90.4% |
| America East | Mid-major | 3 | 66.7% | 81.4% |
| MAAC | Mid-major | 3 | 66.7% | 77.8% |
| OVC | Mid-major | 3 | 66.7% | 77.6% |
| A-Sun | Mid-major | 3 | 100.0% | 77.8% |
| Summit | Mid-major | 3 | 100.0% | 91.4% |
| Big South | Mid-major | 3 | 100.0% | 77.5% |
| NEC | Mid-major | 1 | 100.0% | 91.0% |
| Patriot | Mid-major | 1 | 100.0% | 84.2% |
Recent settled predictions
| Date | Game | Conf | Predicted | Actual | Pick | ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | CHAP @ UCI | Big West | 56–113 | 66–92 | UCI (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | UAPB @ ARK | SEC | 77–88 | 61–106 | ARK (88%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | WNMU @ NMSU | C-USA | 56–90 | 66–73 | NMSU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | LNMO @ MOST | C-USA | 56–79 | 60–88 | MOST (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | CNIA @ UNI | MVC | 62–70 | 70–106 | UNI (84%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | MILG @ UNCG | SoCon | 65–106 | 43–96 | UNCG (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | LC @ PRST | Big Sky | 66–84 | 59–111 | PRST (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | PFW @ DUQ | Atlantic 10 | 70–73 | 71–78 | DUQ (62%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | LCHR @ HCU | Southland | 54–77 | 45–108 | HCU (88%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | REGU @ WYO | Mountain West | 57–82 | 48–95 | WYO (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | NAU @ UNLV | Mountain West | 69–80 | 77–89 | UNLV (86%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | STET @ SC | SEC | 73–76 | 55–81 | SC (62%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | NOLA @ LSU | SEC | 77–78 | 57–100 | LSU (71%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | MAN @ UK | SEC | 73–80 | 57–85 | UK (82%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | CLE @ MIZ | SEC | 74–84 | 50–111 | MIZ (84%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | ALST @ TA&M | SEC | 71–79 | 66–97 | TA&M (71%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | LIP @ IOWA | Big Ten | 71–74 | 54–76 | IOWA (61%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | DREX @ UVA | ACC | 66–77 | 60–89 | UVA (79%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | COPP @ VT | ACC | 63–79 | 54–88 | VT (80%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | UNF @ CBU | Big West | 62–79 | 71–63 | CBU (91%) | L |
| 2026-11-03 | HAMP @ GT | ACC | 74–75 | 55–75 | HAMP (57%) | L |
| 2026-11-03 | CSUF @ SDSU | Pac-12 | 74–84 | 78–102 | SDSU (75%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | HC @ URI | Atlantic 10 | 69–70 | 59–103 | URI (64%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | BTHS @ PAC | WCC | 55–110 | 47–102 | PAC (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | SDST @ KSU | Big 12 | 75–72 | 68–66 | KSU (63%) | L |
| 2026-11-03 | WAG @ BC | ACC | 74–69 | 50–76 | WAG (60%) | L |
| 2026-11-03 | WOF @ TENN | SEC | 73–80 | 59–90 | TENN (70%) | W |
| 2026-11-03 | SHSU @ ALA | SEC | 77–83 | 74–96 | ALA (66%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | SWES @ COFC | CAA | 55–87 | 55–111 | COFC (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | TOUG @ USM | Sun Belt | 64–87 | 35–82 | USM (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | MMU @ SDAK | Summit | 54–83 | 57–95 | SDAK (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | MAMC @ OMA | Summit | 66–84 | 65–73 | OMA (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | MNCR @ NDSU | Summit | 56–86 | 59–90 | NDSU (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | RHDT @ MER | SoCon | 58–108 | 53–90 | MER (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | KCU @ EKU | WAC | 61–110 | 54–105 | EKU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | CAMR @ TAR | WAC | 59–81 | 60–86 | TAR (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | UNTD @ UTA | WAC | 53–73 | 56–89 | UTA (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | FPU @ FRES | Pac-12 | 58–78 | 79–88 | FRES (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | WIU @ VAL | MVC | 67–79 | 58–80 | VAL (88%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | SFIL @ UIC | MVC | 59–100 | 47–96 | UIC (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | CHEY @ MORG | MEAC | 57–107 | 52–103 | MORG (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | LAW @ GB | Horizon | 53–90 | 51–94 | GB (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | FISK @ MTSU | C-USA | 55–103 | 73–117 | MTSU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | NCF @ FIU | C-USA | 59–90 | 58–101 | FIU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | SFST @ UCSB | Big West | 57–87 | 55–85 | UCSB (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | IUK @ EVAN | MVC | 61–74 | 70–80 | EVAN (87%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | MNIL @ BRAD | MVC | 56–84 | 41–85 | BRAD (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | SVC @ DSU | MEAC | 71–67 | 52–86 | DSU (67%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | UMO @ UNCW | CAA | 65–106 | 65–101 | UNCW (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | OLDW @ STBK | CAA | 54–98 | 47–97 | STBK (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | SJLI @ HOF | CAA | 53–110 | 51–97 | HOF (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | MIDW @ KENN | C-USA | 58–106 | 57–116 | KENN (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | ULV @ UCR | Big West | 57–102 | 47–110 | UCR (90%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | MILW @ USC | Big Ten | 79–80 | 63–95 | USC (54%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | LGC @ JXST | C-USA | 55–110 | 59–123 | JXST (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | VUL @ VMI | SoCon | 61–110 | 83–115 | VMI (90%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | ERKA @ SIUE | OVC | 53–98 | 39–91 | SIUE (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | BERR @ SAM | SoCon | 57–104 | 58–87 | SAM (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | PQC @ PV | SWAC | 54–100 | 65–86 | PV (90%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | WEB @ ORST | Pac-12 | 72–74 | 61–102 | ORST (66%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | MRRS @ SCST | MEAC | 58–109 | 55–94 | SCST (90%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | WCBC @ SUU | Big Sky | 58–114 | 69–134 | SUU (90%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | RGNT @ NORF | MEAC | 56–103 | 45–68 | NORF (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | COLC @ UNCO | Big Sky | 58–92 | 64–117 | UNCO (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | MTST @ CSU | Pac-12 | 73–74 | 74–84 | CSU (58%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | OUKS @ TLSA | American | 69–80 | 50–98 | TLSA (88%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | CCSU @ TEM | American | 69–70 | 56–68 | TEM (53%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | SWCU @ UNT | American | 62–94 | 50–122 | UNT (90%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | CLT @ INST | MVC | 71–73 | 78–70 | INST (63%) | L |
| 2026-11-02 | LAS @ HOU | Big 12 | 62–85 | 55–94 | HOU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | DAV @ WSU | Pac-12 | 70–69 | 76–61 | WSU (52%) | L |
| 2026-11-02 | OAK @ MICH | Big Ten | 72–89 | 68–84 | MICH (88%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | ALCN @ MISS | SEC | 70–78 | 58–99 | MISS (84%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | OAKW @ AAMU | SWAC | 61–112 | 57–90 | AAMU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | TAMK @ RGV | Southland | 64–84 | 51–81 | RGV (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | AMCC @ TXST | Pac-12 | 71–70 | 55–67 | TXST (63%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | LYON @ SFA | Southland | 57–104 | 61–120 | SFA (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | NAMU @ NICH | Southland | 53–86 | 56–110 | NICH (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | SCHR @ LAM | Southland | 58–101 | 62–124 | LAM (90%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | UTU @ UNM | Mountain West | 72–82 | 60–100 | UNM (85%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | USCG @ SHU | MAAC | 54–102 | 44–111 | SHU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | QUIN @ MSU | Big Ten | 69–77 | 59–96 | MSU (76%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | HOW @ YALE | Ivy | 75–79 | 62–72 | YALE (56%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | CGMU @ PRIN | Ivy | 68–69 | 46–78 | PRIN (76%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | PEPP @ COR | Ivy | 74–90 | 85–86 | COR (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | RIVI @ UML | America East | 56–115 | 57–121 | UML (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | RIC @ UALB | America East | 62–103 | 67–74 | UALB (89%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | SIE @ BRY | America East | 72–66 | 75–80 | SIE (64%) | L |
| 2026-11-02 | GFU @ IDHO | Big Sky | 59–79 | 56–97 | IDHO (90%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | SEBC @ UWF | A-Sun | 54–102 | 42–127 | UWF (89%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | PFEI @ LONG | Big South | 59–111 | 67–123 | LONG (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | MONT @ ORE | Big Ten | 72–72 | 69–87 | ORE (64%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | IDST @ USU | Pac-12 | 71–83 | 58–94 | USU (87%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | NIA @ WVU | Big 12 | 65–76 | 46–91 | WVU (81%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | FGCU @ UCF | Big 12 | 75–75 | 95–96 | UCF (60%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | ETSU @ ASU | Big 12 | 76–74 | 65–75 | ETSU (64%) | L |
| 2026-11-02 | GONZ @ PUR | Pac-12 | 72–71 | 72–78 | GONZ (58%) | L |
| 2026-11-02 | LBSU @ UTAH | Big 12 | 76–73 | 63–66 | UTAH (65%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | FUR @ BCU | SWAC | 73–74 | 79–70 | BCU (59%) | L |
| 2026-11-02 | WIN @ QUC | A-Sun | 87–84 | 98–103 | QUC (55%) | W |
Model: XGBoost on v2 features, 2-season training window. Backtest: 67.7% ML accuracy / Brier 0.206. Measured against real closing lines (n=935) the market wins: 66.95% model vs 67.70% market, Brier gap CI [0.016, 0.037] excluding zero, ROI −6.2% to −8.9% at every threshold. Verdict: informational only.