Model performance

Settled prediction history
Out-of-sample (walk-forward): Out-of-sample: every prediction was made by a model trained only on prior completed seasons (leak-free), then compared to the closing betting market on the same games. The model loses to the market — the honest result.
Games (OOS)
4332
Model ML acc
71.0%
Market ML acc
73.7%
vs market
-2.7pp
SeasonGamesModel MLMarket MLATSO/U
2025 888 72.3% 76.9% 50.2% 51.0%
2024 873 71.4% 74.1% 47.2% 53.9%
2023 868 71.4% 75.0% 51.6% 51.4%
2022 854 67.7% 71.2% 47.4% 51.1%
2021 849 72.1% 70.7% 48.3% 52.1%
Legacy retrodiction backtest (not walk-forward — results were known when generated)
Mixed dataset: 8 of 1487 settled predictions were made before kickoff; the remaining 1479 are retrodictions generated after the results were known.
Settled
1487
ML Accuracy
72.2%
ATS Accuracy
48.6%
O/U Accuracy
52.1%
Avg Confidence
79.6%
By season
Season n Moneyline Spread Total Avg Conf
2026 624 76.3% 48.9% 49.2% 76.1%
2024 863 69.3% 48.4% 54.2% 82.1%
Recent settled predictions
Date Game Predicted Actual Conf ML Spread Total
2026-11-03 Ohio @ Akron 34–18 28–20 83% W L W
2026-11-03 Buffalo @ Miami (OH) 24–23 34–31 52% W W W
2026-10-31 Missouri @ Arkansas 24–23 34–10 53% W L W
2026-10-31 Florida @ Georgia 18–41 8–27 90% W W L
2026-10-31 Auburn @ Ole Miss 19–33 15–45 80% W W L
2026-10-31 South Carolina @ Oklahoma 22–23 42–25 54% L W W
2026-10-31 Mississippi State @ Texas 16–36 3–31 88% W W L
2026-10-31 Arizona @ Texas Tech 25–29 26–34 61% W W L
2026-10-31 Arizona State @ BYU 21–33 20–27 77% W W L
2026-10-31 Kansas @ TCU 16–22 16–22 63% W W W
2026-10-31 Kansas State @ Colorado 29–23 24–27 63% L — W
2026-10-31 Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 23–30 49–51 66% W W L
2026-10-31 Utah @ Cincinnati 33–21 49–25 75% W W L
2026-10-31 California @ NC State 17–31 10–31 80% W W W
2026-10-31 SMU @ Syracuse 32–22 27–30 73% L L W
2026-10-31 Boston College @ Duke 14–30 2–47 82% W W W
2026-10-31 Clemson @ Florida State 19–29 36–24 73% L L L
2026-10-31 Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh 19–32 11–34 78% W W W
2026-10-31 Miami @ North Carolina 31–21 38–35 72% W W L
2026-10-31 Stanford @ Louisville 14–37 24–52 91% W W L
2026-10-31 Virginia @ Wake Forest 16–33 7–51 83% W W W
2026-10-31 Minnesota @ Indiana 11–31 16–23 87% W W L
2026-10-31 Wisconsin @ Iowa 16–24 0–30 68% W W L
2026-10-31 Illinois @ Maryland 30–22 20–17 69% W W W
2026-10-31 Washington @ Nebraska 16–30 17–10 79% L L W
2026-10-31 Northwestern @ Oregon 20–27 26–34 65% W W L
2026-10-31 Purdue @ Penn State 19–35 17–31 83% W W W
2026-10-31 Michigan @ Rutgers 26–17 28–21 70% W W L
2026-10-31 Nevada @ UCLA 17–31 0–27 79% W L L
2026-10-31 Ohio State @ USC 32–20 18–30 75% L L L
2026-10-31 Notre Dame @ Navy 31–20 35–13 74% W W W
2026-10-31 Texas State @ Boise State 21–34 45–46 76% W L L
2026-10-31 Washington State @ San Diego State 27–24 20–26 56% L L L
2026-10-31 Colorado State @ Utah State 19–32 14–31 78% W W W
2026-10-31 Oregon State @ Fresno State 30–31 22–38 52% W W W
2026-10-31 UConn @ Air Force 24–27 26–35 58% W W L
2026-10-31 Army @ Memphis 22–34 22–49 76% W W L
2026-10-31 Temple @ East Carolina 18–30 9–17 76% W W W
2026-10-31 UAB @ South Florida 13–31 10–30 85% W W L
2026-10-31 New Mexico @ San José State 22–15 21–16 66% W W W
2026-10-31 Northern Illinois @ UNLV 16–33 24–31 85% W W —
2026-10-31 UTEP @ North Dakota State 13–35 7–31 90% W L L
2026-10-31 Bowling Green @ Western Michigan 16–32 10–23 82% W L L
2026-10-31 App State @ Georgia Southern 24–29 3–19 60% W L W
2026-10-31 Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State 21–29 31–20 69% L L W
2026-10-31 Florida International @ Liberty 13–34 10–49 89% W W W
2026-10-31 Southern Miss @ UL Monroe 26–24 35–21 55% W L L
2026-10-31 Marshall @ Old Dominion 24–21 36–23 58% W W L
2026-10-31 Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama 25–30 35–20 60% L L W
2026-10-30 Baylor @ UCF 22–26 41–9 58% L L L
2026-10-30 Tulane @ Charlotte 30–19 38–31 74% W L W
2026-10-30 Kent State @ Sacramento State 30–26 10–31 60% L W L
2026-10-29 Florida Atlantic @ North Texas 21–45 41–48 92% W L L
2026-10-29 Troy @ James Madison 16–38 24–21 90% L L L
2026-10-28 Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State 24–26 24–0 55% L L W
2026-10-28 Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee 20–27 44–28 65% L L L
2026-10-27 Delaware @ Western Kentucky 20–29 35–21 70% L L L
2026-10-27 Sam Houston @ Missouri State 27–31 3–24 60% W L L
2026-10-24 Texas A&M @ Alabama 16–34 20–31 85% W L W
2026-10-24 LSU @ Auburn 29–22 38–17 66% W W L
2026-10-24 Vanderbilt @ Kentucky 22–31 17–34 70% W L L
2026-10-24 Oklahoma @ Mississippi State 17–24 23–15 66% L L W
2026-10-24 Tennessee @ South Carolina 26–29 24–27 55% W L W
2026-10-24 Ole Miss @ Texas 25–28 27–34 55% W L L
2026-10-24 Baylor @ Kansas 27–27 24–25 51% W W W
2026-10-24 BYU @ UCF 26–22 31–39 59% L W W
2026-10-24 Colorado @ Oklahoma State 19–30 24–57 74% W L L
2026-10-24 Houston @ Utah 18–36 13–21 86% W W W
2026-10-24 Iowa State @ Arizona 18–34 3–39 81% W W L
2026-10-24 Kansas State @ Arizona State 27–26 17–28 52% L W L
2026-10-24 Texas Tech @ Cincinnati 28–28 24–37 52% L W L
2026-10-24 West Virginia @ TCU 22–34 24–20 75% L L W
2026-10-24 California @ SMU 19–34 20–59 81% W L L
2026-10-24 Boston College @ Georgia Tech 18–30 49–27 74% L L L
2026-10-24 Pittsburgh @ Miami 17–45 23–52 94% W W W
2026-10-24 Syracuse @ North Carolina 17–31 31–30 78% L L L
2026-10-24 Virginia Tech @ Clemson 14–26 20–16 76% L L W
2026-10-24 Oregon @ Illinois 30–22 10–21 68% L W L
2026-10-24 Indiana @ Michigan 28–17 13–6 74% W L L
2026-10-24 Iowa @ Minnesota 30–20 10–13 71% L L L
2026-10-24 Rutgers @ Northwestern 22–35 14–42 77% W L W
2026-10-24 Michigan State @ UCLA 17–30 10–28 78% W L L
2026-10-24 USC @ Wisconsin 28–28 7–24 51% L W L
2026-10-24 San Diego State @ Colorado State 20–34 49–56 79% W W L
2026-10-24 Utah State @ Texas State 17–39 17–20 89% W L W
2026-10-24 Boise State @ Washington State 25–23 31–10 54% W L W
2026-10-24 Rice @ Florida Atlantic 19–32 49–51 77% W L L
2026-10-24 North Texas @ Navy 25–26 49–39 53% L L L
2026-10-24 UTSA @ Tulane 22–28 42–19 63% L L L
2026-10-24 Hawai'i @ Northern Illinois 23–25 56–21 54% L L L
2026-10-24 North Dakota State @ New Mexico 16–33 16–21 84% W W L
2026-10-24 San José State @ Nevada 20–26 13–28 63% W W W
2026-10-24 Akron @ Kent State 12–23 20–35 73% W W L
2026-10-24 Sacramento State @ Ball State 17–34 17–34 83% W W W
2026-10-24 Bowling Green @ Buffalo 22–27 24–31 62% W W W
2026-10-24 Eastern Michigan @ Ohio 14–31 20–24 83% W L W
2026-10-24 Western Michigan @ Toledo 16–29 38–45 76% W W L
2026-10-24 Miami (OH) @ Central Michigan 23–23 28–27 50% L W W
2026-10-24 Georgia State @ Arkansas State 29–25 32–38 59% L L L
2026-10-24 Louisiana @ Southern Miss 32–22 31–35 73% L W W