Model performance

Settled prediction history
Out-of-sample (walk-forward): Out-of-sample: every prediction was made by a model trained only on prior completed seasons (leak-free), then compared to the closing betting market on the same games. The model loses to the market — the honest result.
Games (OOS)
4332
Model ML acc
71.0%
Market ML acc
73.7%
vs market
-2.7pp
SeasonGamesModel MLMarket MLATSO/U
2025 888 72.3% 76.9% 50.2% 51.0%
2024 873 71.4% 74.1% 47.2% 53.9%
2023 868 71.4% 75.0% 51.6% 51.4%
2022 854 67.7% 71.2% 47.4% 51.1%
2021 849 72.1% 70.7% 48.3% 52.1%
Legacy retrodiction backtest (not walk-forward — results were known when generated)
Mixed dataset: 8 of 1052 settled predictions were made before kickoff; the remaining 1044 are retrodictions generated after the results were known.
Settled
1052
ML Accuracy
72.3%
ATS Accuracy
47.5%
O/U Accuracy
53.8%
Avg Confidence
82.0%
By season
Season n Moneyline Spread Total Avg Conf
2026 189 86.2% 43.4% 51.9% 81.8%
2024 863 69.3% 48.4% 54.2% 82.1%
Recent settled predictions
Date Game Predicted Actual Conf ML Spread Total
2026-09-18 Houston @ Texas Tech 16–35 26–28 84% W L L
2026-09-18 Miami @ Wake Forest 36–20 33–20 81% W W W
2026-09-18 Portland State @ Oregon 9–53 0–84 99% W L L
2026-09-17 Syracuse @ Pittsburgh 16–35 13–27 84% W W W
2026-09-12 Arkansas @ Utah 22–41 10–43 83% W W L
2026-09-12 Southern Miss @ Auburn 17–34 8–43 80% W L W
2026-09-12 Campbell @ Florida 10–50 3–52 98% W W W
2026-09-12 Western Kentucky @ Georgia 8–44 20–70 97% W L L
2026-09-12 Alabama @ Kentucky 32–18 45–17 76% W W W
2026-09-12 Charlotte @ Ole Miss 7–50 9–41 99% W W W
2026-09-12 Mississippi State @ Minnesota 27–29 38–13 54% L L L
2026-09-12 Oklahoma @ Michigan 22–20 10–17 53% L W W
2026-09-12 Towson @ South Carolina 10–49 9–45 98% W W L
2026-09-12 Tennessee @ Georgia Tech 26–28 45–24 53% L L L
2026-09-12 Ohio State @ Texas 25–25 23–24 50% W W W
2026-09-12 Arizona State @ Texas A&M 16–37 20–48 85% W W W
2026-09-12 Delaware @ Vanderbilt 18–41 26–35 88% W L W
2026-09-12 Washington State @ Kansas State 15–30 7–34 78% W L W
2026-09-12 Oregon @ Oklahoma State 34–19 31–39 78% L W L
2026-09-12 Texas Tech @ Oregon State 37–12 35–24 90% W W L
2026-09-12 Prairie View A&M @ Baylor 6–54 3–44 99% W W L
2026-09-12 Weber State @ Colorado 10–34 21–52 89% W W L
2026-09-12 Western Carolina @ Cincinnati 8–50 10–62 98% W W L
2026-09-12 Southern @ Houston 6–47 6–77 98% W L L
2026-09-12 Iowa State @ Iowa 12–32 13–16 85% W L L
2026-09-12 Grambling @ TCU 2–54 7–63 100% W W L
2026-09-12 UCF @ Pittsburgh 19–36 7–12 81% W L L
2026-09-12 UT Martin @ West Virginia 15–36 7–52 86% W L L
2026-09-12 Arizona @ BYU 20–31 17–28 72% W W L
2026-09-12 California @ Syracuse 28–24 21–18 58% W W W
2026-09-12 Duke @ Illinois 18–27 31–27 69% L L L
2026-09-12 East Tennessee State @ North Carolina 11–41 3–35 94% W W W
2026-09-12 Georgia Southern @ Clemson 12–32 7–22 84% W W W
2026-09-12 Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech 20–25 21–44 59% W L L
2026-09-12 UC Davis @ SMU 7–50 10–56 98% W W L
2026-09-12 Wake Forest @ Purdue 28–25 38–36 55% W W W
2026-09-12 Howard @ Indiana 5–49 0–55 99% W W W
2026-09-12 Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State 13–28 7–35 78% W L W
2026-09-12 Bowling Green @ Nebraska 13–35 7–56 86% W L L
2026-09-12 Penn State @ Temple 36–20 27–9 79% W W L
2026-09-12 San Diego State @ UCLA 18–24 10–28 61% W L W
2026-09-12 Maryland @ UConn 20–32 38–14 73% L L W
2026-09-12 Louisiana @ USC 13–37 30–49 89% W W L
2026-09-12 Utah State @ Washington 10–34 14–16 89% W W W
2026-09-12 Western Illinois @ Wisconsin 7–53 9–36 99% W L L
2026-09-12 Rice @ Notre Dame 7–50 0–52 99% W L L
2026-09-12 Memphis @ Boise State 22–31 20–38 69% W W L
2026-09-12 Southern Utah @ Colorado State 12–36 24–58 90% W W L
2026-09-12 Sacramento State @ Fresno State 16–30 3–49 76% W L W
2026-09-12 UTSA @ Texas State 28–28 31–26 50% W W W
2026-09-12 South Florida @ Army 25–24 28–24 53% W W W
2026-09-12 Navy @ Florida Atlantic 39–21 30–38 82% L L W
2026-09-12 UNLV @ North Texas 17–32 6–44 78% W W W
2026-09-12 Tulsa @ Sam Houston 28–25 23–17 57% W W L
2026-09-12 UL Monroe @ UAB 14–30 20–26 79% W L W
2026-09-12 Montana State @ Nevada 14–43 20–7 93% L L L
2026-09-12 North Dakota State @ Air Force 21–24 38–32 57% L L L
2026-09-12 Illinois State @ Northern Illinois 7–38 28–24 94% L L L
2026-09-12 Cal Poly @ San José State 9–43 20–30 96% W L W
2026-09-12 Texas Southern @ UTEP 11–33 10–51 87% W L L
2026-09-12 Northern Colorado @ Wyoming 11–37 13–21 91% W L L
2026-09-12 App State @ East Carolina 19–35 27–24 79% L L W
2026-09-12 South Alabama @ Tulane 20–31 24–28 70% W L W
2026-09-12 New Mexico State @ Hawai'i 13–29 19–29 80% W W W
2026-09-12 Mercyhurst @ New Mexico 10–47 7–70 97% W L W
2026-09-12 Robert Morris @ Akron 15–36 10–45 87% W L W
2026-09-12 Stony Brook @ Ball State 13–42 17–41 93% W W W
2026-09-12 Buffalo @ Florida International 23–31 20–33 65% W L W
2026-09-12 Colgate @ Central Michigan 11–37 10–13 90% W L W
2026-09-12 Wofford @ Kent State 10–40 15–36 94% W W W
2026-09-12 Holy Cross @ Miami (OH) 22–26 7–45 57% W L W
2026-09-12 Jacksonville State @ Ohio 21–24 27–29 57% W W L
2026-09-12 Central Connecticut @ Toledo 5–45 10–63 98% W W L
2026-09-12 Sacred Heart @ Massachusetts 12–33 10–37 86% W L W
2026-09-12 Monmouth @ Western Michigan 14–42 14–49 92% W L W
2026-09-12 Louisiana Tech @ LSU 14–31 14–45 81% W W L
2026-09-12 Wagner @ James Madison 8–49 3–87 98% W L W
2026-09-12 Fordham @ Coastal Carolina 19–28 7–45 67% W L W
2026-09-12 Gardner-Webb @ Liberty 14–39 23–24 90% W W W
2026-09-12 West Georgia @ Arkansas State 20–47 7–52 92% W L W
2026-09-12 Alabama State @ Troy 8–47 17–34 98% W L L
2026-09-12 Georgia State @ Kennesaw State 29–31 31–17 54% L W L
2026-09-12 Middle Tennessee @ Marshall 22–29 26–28 65% W W W
2026-09-12 Lindenwood @ Missouri State 9–35 14–48 90% W W L
2026-09-11 Missouri @ Kansas 25–21 38–21 56% W L L
2026-09-11 Rutgers @ Boston College 24–25 21–28 53% W L W
2026-09-11 Villanova @ Louisville 9–50 13–59 98% W W W
2026-09-11 Norfolk State @ Virginia 9–48 3–59 98% W L W
2026-09-11 Richmond @ NC State 11–43 0–73 95% W L W
2026-09-10 Florida A&M @ Miami 7–51 7–77 99% W L L
2026-09-07 SMU @ Florida State 24–23 27–24 51% W — W
2026-09-06 Louisville @ Ole Miss 16–29 38–41 76% W L L
2026-09-06 Washington State @ Washington 14–30 10–24 80% W W W
2026-09-06 Wisconsin @ Notre Dame 6–36 13–41 95% W W L
2026-09-05 East Carolina @ Alabama 16–34 10–48 73% W L L
2026-09-05 North Alabama @ Arkansas 11–49 14–31 91% W W W
2026-09-05 Baylor @ Auburn 15–30 16–17 83% W L W
2026-09-05 Florida Atlantic @ Florida 17–34 21–66 73% W L L
2026-09-05 Tennessee State @ Georgia 7–55 3–63 91% W L W
2026-09-05 Youngstown State @ Kentucky 10–46 13–45 90% W W W