By month

Month	n	ML Accuracy	Avg Confidence
2026-06	5	20.0%	55.0%
2026-05	38	57.9%	62.2%
2026-04	12	66.7%	69.5%

Calibration

For each predicted-probability bucket, compare avg predicted home-win prob vs the actual rate. A well-calibrated model has avg predicted ≈ actual rate within each bucket.

Bucket	n	Avg Predicted	Actual	Visual
<35%	4	22.9%	75.0%	+52.1pp
35-45%	5	39.5%	20.0%	-19.5pp
45-55%	15	50.5%	46.7%	-3.8pp
55-65%	17	60.1%	41.2%	-19.0pp
65-75%	9	69.7%	77.8%	+8.1pp
>=75%	5	85.2%	80.0%	-5.2pp

Recent settled predictions

Date	Game	Predicted	Actual	Pick	ML
2026-06-13	NY @ SA	101–106	94–90	SA (60%)	0
2026-06-10	SA @ NY	95–109	106–107	NY (53%)	1
2026-06-08	SA @ NY	101–112	115–111	NY (60%)	0
2026-06-05	NY @ SA	104–108	105–104	SA (52%)	0
2026-06-03	NY @ SA	109–109	105–95	SA (51%)	0
2026-05-30	SA @ OKC	103–112	111–103	OKC (61%)	0
2026-05-28	OKC @ SA	106–110	91–118	OKC (53%)	0
2026-05-26	SA @ OKC	105–113	114–127	OKC (67%)	1
2026-05-25	NY @ CLE	103–105	130–93	NY (53%)	1
2026-05-24	OKC @ SA	106–109	82–103	SA (55%)	1
2026-05-23	NY @ CLE	102–104	121–108	NY (52%)	1
2026-05-22	OKC @ SA	103–111	123–108	SA (65%)	0
2026-05-21	CLE @ NY	103–117	93–109	NY (56%)	1
2026-05-20	SA @ OKC	102–114	113–122	OKC (58%)	1
2026-05-19	CLE @ NY	104–115	104–115	NY (56%)	1
2026-05-18	SA @ OKC	98–111	122–115	OKC (59%)	0
2026-05-17	CLE @ DET	103–105	125–94	CLE (52%)	1
2026-05-15	DET @ CLE	96–110	115–94	CLE (66%)	0
2026-05-15	SA @ MIN	102–112	139–109	MIN (58%)	0
2026-05-13	CLE @ DET	102–104	117–113	CLE (51%)	1
2026-05-12	MIN @ SA	97–112	97–126	SA (64%)	1
2026-05-11	DET @ CLE	95–106	103–112	CLE (65%)	1
2026-05-11	OKC @ LAL	102–94	115–110	LAL (54%)	0
2026-05-10	NY @ PHI	116–99	144–114	NY (65%)	1
2026-05-10	SA @ MIN	102–104	109–114	MIN (54%)	1
2026-05-09	DET @ CLE	96–102	109–116	CLE (67%)	1
2026-05-09	OKC @ LAL	101–97	131–108	LAL (53%)	0
2026-05-08	NY @ PHI	111–96	108–94	NY (63%)	1
2026-05-08	SA @ MIN	107–107	115–108	MIN (59%)	0
2026-05-07	CLE @ DET	106–109	97–107	DET (51%)	1
2026-05-07	LAL @ OKC	94–109	107–125	OKC (74%)	1
2026-05-06	PHI @ NY	102–108	102–108	NY (62%)	1
2026-05-06	MIN @ SA	105–106	95–133	SA (57%)	1
2026-05-05	CLE @ DET	102–105	101–111	CLE (52%)	0
2026-05-05	LAL @ OKC	96–107	90–108	OKC (73%)	1
2026-05-04	PHI @ NY	98–108	98–137	NY (72%)	1
2026-05-04	MIN @ SA	106–106	104–102	SA (60%)	0
2026-05-03	ORL @ DET	106–104	94–116	ORL (83%)	0
2026-05-03	TOR @ CLE	98–111	102–114	CLE (79%)	1
2026-05-02	PHI @ BOS	96–105	109–100	BOS (65%)	0
2026-05-01	DET @ ORL	93–110	93–79	ORL (92%)	0
2026-05-01	LAL @ HOU	99–108	98–78	HOU (62%)	0
2026-05-01	CLE @ TOR	106–111	110–112	CLE (76%)	0
2026-04-30	BOS @ PHI	93–103	93–106	BOS (53%)	0
2026-04-30	DEN @ MIN	99–108	98–110	MIN (61%)	1
2026-04-30	NY @ ATL	103–105	140–89	NY (74%)	1
2026-04-29	ORL @ DET	110–105	109–116	ORL (75%)	0
2026-04-29	HOU @ LAL	103–107	99–93	HOU (59%)	1
2026-04-29	TOR @ CLE	96–114	120–125	CLE (83%)	1
2026-04-28	PHI @ BOS	98–112	113–97	BOS (68%)	0
2026-04-28	ATL @ NY	107–117	97–126	NY (74%)	1
2026-04-28	POR @ SA	99–114	95–114	SA (81%)	1
2026-04-28	DET @ ORL	94–115	88–94	ORL (90%)	1
2026-04-28	MIN @ DEN	99–104	113–125	MIN (59%)	0
2026-04-28	OKC @ PHX	105–101	131–122	OKC (57%)	1