Model performance
Settled
228
ML Accuracy
53.5%
Avg Confidence
60.1%
By month
| Month | n | ML Accuracy | Avg Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11 | 19 | 57.9% | 59.2% |
| 2026-10 | 154 | 51.9% | 59.1% |
| 2026-06 | 5 | 20.0% | 55.0% |
| 2026-05 | 38 | 57.9% | 62.2% |
| 2026-04 | 12 | 66.7% | 69.5% |
Calibration
For each predicted-probability bucket, compare avg predicted home-win prob vs the actual rate. A well-calibrated model has avg predicted ≈ actual rate within each bucket.
| Bucket | n | Avg Predicted | Actual | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <35% | 6 | 26.5% | 66.7% | +40.1pp |
| 35-45% | 22 | 41.5% | 36.4% | -5.1pp |
| 45-55% | 76 | 50.2% | 53.9% | +3.7pp |
| 55-65% | 75 | 60.0% | 48.0% | -12.0pp |
| 65-75% | 43 | 68.9% | 60.5% | -8.5pp |
| >=75% | 6 | 83.6% | 83.3% | -0.3pp |
Recent settled predictions
| Date | Game | Predicted | Actual | Pick | ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | MIA @ LAL | 110–116 | 117–138 | LAL (55%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | TOR @ LAC | 110–108 | 125–118 | TOR (53%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | PHX @ GS | 105–122 | 113–116 | GS (71%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | POR @ DEN | 110–114 | 118–110 | DEN (53%) | L |
| 2026-11-02 | UTAH @ SA | 103–115 | 97–119 | SA (73%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | BOS @ HOU | 108–110 | 93–109 | HOU (61%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | MIL @ MIN | 114–114 | 100–112 | MIN (61%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | NO @ MEM | 110–129 | 135–134 | MEM (72%) | L |
| 2026-11-02 | SAC @ DAL | 105–117 | 115–100 | DAL (70%) | L |
| 2026-11-02 | CHI @ PHI | 110–111 | 107–126 | PHI (50%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | WSH @ ORL | 107–113 | 103–94 | WSH (54%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | BKN @ NY | 111–115 | 90–103 | BKN (51%) | L |
| 2026-11-02 | ATL @ IND | 112–117 | 108–104 | IND (52%) | L |
| 2026-11-02 | DET @ CHA | 113–105 | 124–91 | DET (64%) | W |
| 2026-11-02 | OKC @ CLE | 105–110 | 117–112 | CLE (60%) | L |
| 2026-11-01 | TOR @ LAL | 112–111 | 125–131 | TOR (50%) | L |
| 2026-11-01 | LAC @ GS | 106–111 | 112–124 | GS (55%) | W |
| 2026-11-01 | BKN @ IND | 109–119 | 98–90 | IND (67%) | L |
| 2026-11-01 | BOS @ ORL | 111–111 | 108–97 | BOS (51%) | W |
| 2026-10-31 | OKC @ HOU | 108–111 | 98–119 | HOU (53%) | W |
| 2026-10-31 | MIN @ SA | 110–117 | 111–121 | SA (67%) | W |
| 2026-10-31 | CLE @ MIL | 111–116 | 136–111 | MIL (61%) | L |
| 2026-10-31 | SAC @ MEM | 106–122 | 105–136 | MEM (74%) | W |
| 2026-10-31 | ATL @ NO | 111–108 | 99–121 | ATL (59%) | L |
| 2026-10-31 | PHI @ CHA | 108–106 | 109–104 | PHI (59%) | W |
| 2026-10-31 | POR @ UTAH | 113–110 | 112–90 | POR (58%) | W |
| 2026-10-30 | DEN @ PHX | 110–110 | 127–120 | PHX (50%) | L |
| 2026-10-30 | LAL @ GS | 109–116 | 95–112 | GS (61%) | W |
| 2026-10-30 | LAC @ MIN | 108–112 | 101–127 | MIN (53%) | W |
| 2026-10-30 | HOU @ DAL | 111–106 | 111–116 | HOU (54%) | L |
| 2026-10-30 | IND @ MIA | 114–119 | 125–145 | MIA (54%) | W |
| 2026-10-30 | ORL @ TOR | 104–110 | 121–114 | TOR (65%) | L |
| 2026-10-30 | NY @ PHI | 110–110 | 93–98 | PHI (55%) | W |
| 2026-10-30 | DET @ BKN | 113–107 | 110–94 | DET (56%) | W |
| 2026-10-30 | CHI @ BOS | 109–117 | 111–125 | BOS (59%) | W |
| 2026-10-30 | CHA @ WSH | 102–103 | 79–95 | WSH (54%) | W |
| 2026-10-29 | MEM @ POR | 110–110 | 124–103 | POR (52%) | L |
| 2026-10-29 | SAC @ NO | 103–110 | 120–132 | NO (63%) | W |
| 2026-10-29 | CLE @ ATL | 110–123 | 111–114 | ATL (66%) | W |
| 2026-10-28 | LAL @ LAC | 109–120 | 103–87 | LAC (52%) | L |
| 2026-10-28 | OKC @ DAL | 107–105 | 96–120 | OKC (55%) | L |
| 2026-10-28 | SA @ UTAH | 114–110 | 117–111 | SA (61%) | W |
| 2026-10-28 | DEN @ NO | 112–114 | 104–91 | DEN (54%) | W |
| 2026-10-28 | GS @ MIN | 109–118 | 119–114 | MIN (57%) | L |
| 2026-10-28 | HOU @ MIL | 111–106 | 132–100 | HOU (52%) | W |
| 2026-10-28 | NY @ CHI | 110–114 | 133–127 | CHI (65%) | L |
| 2026-10-28 | ORL @ TOR | 107–112 | 99–129 | TOR (55%) | W |
| 2026-10-28 | PHI @ IND | 105–116 | 114–109 | IND (66%) | L |
| 2026-10-28 | CHA @ DET | 100–112 | 89–97 | DET (55%) | W |
| 2026-10-28 | WSH @ CLE | 111–115 | 111–121 | WSH (50%) | L |
| 2026-10-28 | MIA @ ATL | 112–118 | 129–117 | ATL (56%) | L |
| 2026-10-27 | POR @ LAL | 110–111 | 136–129 | LAL (55%) | L |
| 2026-10-27 | SAC @ SA | 96–113 | 103–130 | SA (73%) | W |
| 2026-10-27 | DET @ NY | 108–106 | 97–111 | NY (54%) | W |
| 2026-10-27 | BKN @ BOS | 102–119 | 124–125 | BOS (76%) | W |
| 2026-10-26 | GS @ DEN | 108–110 | 134–114 | DEN (56%) | L |
| 2026-10-26 | MEM @ UTAH | 117–112 | 110–105 | MEM (56%) | W |
| 2026-10-26 | ATL @ HOU | 106–116 | 110–120 | HOU (58%) | W |
| 2026-10-26 | PHX @ OKC | 101–112 | 114–125 | OKC (69%) | W |
| 2026-10-26 | IND @ MIL | 113–113 | 102–110 | MIL (62%) | W |
| 2026-10-26 | DAL @ MIA | 111–120 | 113–109 | MIA (63%) | L |
| 2026-10-26 | CHI @ BOS | 107–114 | 99–134 | BOS (70%) | W |
| 2026-10-26 | MIN @ CLE | 110–111 | 125–127 | CLE (54%) | W |
| 2026-10-26 | WSH @ CHA | 111–108 | 103–110 | WSH (57%) | L |
| 2026-10-25 | MEM @ SAC | 110–106 | 123–112 | MEM (53%) | W |
| 2026-10-25 | DET @ PHI | 114–108 | 106–93 | DET (58%) | W |
| 2026-10-25 | LAC @ OKC | 108–106 | 101–108 | OKC (58%) | W |
| 2026-10-25 | TOR @ MIN | 111–116 | 94–117 | MIN (52%) | W |
| 2026-10-25 | ORL @ NY | 104–105 | 111–102 | ORL (51%) | W |
| 2026-10-25 | IND @ BKN | 114–112 | 136–109 | IND (55%) | W |
| 2026-10-25 | LAL @ UTAH | 115–119 | 132–123 | LAL (54%) | W |
| 2026-10-24 | GS @ PHX | 111–106 | 122–131 | GS (54%) | L |
| 2026-10-24 | NO @ DEN | 102–115 | 135–141 | DEN (67%) | W |
| 2026-10-24 | SA @ DAL | 110–107 | 122–106 | SA (53%) | W |
| 2026-10-24 | WSH @ CHI | 104–119 | 124–120 | CHI (60%) | L |
| 2026-10-24 | HOU @ ATL | 106–112 | 121–114 | ATL (56%) | L |
| 2026-10-24 | MIL @ PHI | 112–114 | 116–127 | PHI (52%) | W |
| 2026-10-24 | BKN @ CLE | 111–115 | 121–125 | BKN (52%) | L |
| 2026-10-24 | MIA @ CHA | 109–108 | 110–115 | MIA (52%) | L |
| 2026-10-23 | POR @ SAC | 110–105 | 128–120 | SAC (52%) | L |
| 2026-10-23 | LAC @ LAL | 110–108 | 117–125 | LAL (52%) | W |
| 2026-10-23 | MEM @ GS | 106–111 | 111–108 | GS (58%) | L |
| 2026-10-23 | NO @ UTAH | 110–115 | 119–120 | NO (52%) | L |
| 2026-10-23 | CHI @ MIL | 110–111 | 132–125 | MIL (60%) | L |
| 2026-10-23 | DET @ MIA | 113–114 | 128–111 | DET (52%) | W |
| 2026-10-23 | TOR @ WSH | 114–107 | 112–102 | TOR (59%) | W |
| 2026-10-23 | MIN @ ORL | 108–114 | 115–93 | ORL (65%) | L |
| 2026-10-23 | DAL @ IND | 103–115 | 121–105 | IND (62%) | L |
| 2026-10-23 | ATL @ CHA | 114–109 | 128–81 | ATL (57%) | W |
| 2026-10-23 | HOU @ SA | 101–105 | 114–110 | SA (59%) | L |
| 2026-10-23 | NY @ BOS | 103–106 | 103–107 | BOS (64%) | W |
| 2026-10-22 | DEN @ OKC | 108–108 | 84–96 | DEN (56%) | L |
| 2026-10-22 | CLE @ PHI | 112–105 | 106–114 | CLE (52%) | L |
| 2026-10-21 | SAC @ LAC | 99–119 | 96–121 | LAC (70%) | W |
| 2026-10-21 | PHX @ POR | 104–113 | 83–124 | POR (67%) | W |
| 2026-10-21 | DAL @ HOU | 101–110 | 110–128 | HOU (63%) | W |
| 2026-10-21 | IND @ NO | 116–104 | 123–120 | IND (55%) | W |
| 2026-10-21 | UTAH @ MEM | 105–114 | 103–123 | MEM (71%) | W |
| 2026-10-21 | CHI @ TOR | 109–112 | 92–135 | TOR (57%) | W |
| 2026-10-21 | CHA @ BKN | 101–108 | 110–103 | BKN (60%) | L |