First-quarter props

Only a few books post this market (3 seen so far), too few for a Q1 consensus. The model builds one: the full-game rushing yards line from every book, times the historical first-quarter share (20.8% median).

Graded
0 of 29
45 pending
Model's side, every DK line
—
nothing graded
Edge ≥ 5 pts
—
nothing graded
Brier (lower is better)
—
DraftKings —
Miss vs actual Q1 yards
—
model median · DK line —
DK Q1 line ÷ full-game
19.7%
model median 20.8%
Low-to-high gap
0.7 yds
average across 43 player-games with 2+ books
0 graded. A few hundred are needed before any of these numbers can tell the model and the books apart — and before the timing table below can pick a strategy.

When and where to bet

At each timing, the bet is the single quote with the highest model EV — DraftKings alone, or the best of every book — placed only if that EV is positive. Beat close compares the bet with the same book's final line: a better line wins outright, and on the same line it counts if that side got more expensive. Flat, unmoved lines are left out of the percentage.

TimingPricingBetsRecordUnitsROI Avg model EVBeat closeAvg line CLVBooks used
Open (12h+ out)DraftKings 25 — — — +14.8% — — DraftKings 25
Open (12h+ out)Best book 27 — — — +15.2% — — DraftKings 14, Hard Rock 9, theScore 4
Day before (12–36h)DraftKings 14 — — — +17.7% — — DraftKings 14
Day before (12–36h)Best book 15 — — — +17.1% — — DraftKings 9, Hard Rock 4, theScore 2
Close (last 6h)DraftKings 0 — — — — n/a n/a —
Close (last 6h)Best book 0 — — — — n/a n/a —
BookPlayer-gamesFirst seenLatest line vs other books Move, first → latestHold
DraftKings 45 36h before kickoffmedian +0.2 yds43 shared player-games one quote each 6.4%
Hard Rock 43 36h before kickoffmedian -0.2 yds43 shared player-games one quote each 6.9%
theScore 21 36h before kickoffmedian -0.1 yds21 shared player-games one quote each 6.6%

Every line

KickoffPlayerDK openDK close Range at openlow – highRange latestlow – high Full-game lineModel medianModel P(over)DK P(over)Edge Model sideQ1 ydsResultMove
2026-10-13 00:15BUF @ LA Kyren Williams
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 17.5 -113/-114 67h 17.5 -113/-114 67.1h 1
Hard Rock 16.5 -115/-115 67h 16.5 -115/-115 67.1h 1
theScore 17.5 -115/-115 67h 17.5 -115/-115 67.1h 1
 — 17.5-113 / -114 16.5 – 17.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -114 16.5 – 17.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -114 69.51 book 13.8 43.1% 49.9% -6.8 Under -114 pending — —
2026-10-13 00:15BUF @ LA Josh Allen
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 6.5 -109/-119 67h 6.5 -109/-119 67.1h 1
Hard Rock 5.5 -115/-115 67h 5.5 -115/-115 67.1h 1
 — 6.5-109 / -119 5.5 – 6.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -119 5.5 – 6.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -119 36.51 book 8.6 61.9% 49.0% +12.9 Over -109 pending — —
2026-10-13 00:15BUF @ LA James Cook
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 22.5 -115/-112 67h 22.5 -115/-112 67.1h 1
Hard Rock 20.5 -115/-115 67h 20.5 -115/-115 67.1h 1
theScore 21.5 -120/-110 67h 21.5 -120/-110 67.1h 1
 — 22.5-115 / -112 20.5 – 22.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -112 20.5 – 22.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -112 75.51 book 15.0 34.2% 50.3% -16.1 Under -112 pending — —
2026-10-12 00:20BAL @ ATL Tyler Huntley
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 3.5 -119/-109 43h 3.5 -119/-109 43.2h 1
Hard Rock 3.5 -115/-115 43h 3.5 -115/-115 43.2h 1
 — 3.5-119 / -109 3.5 – 3.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -109 3.5 – 3.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -109 none — — 51.0% — — pending — —
2026-10-12 00:20BAL @ ATL Derrick Henry
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 21.5 -111/-117 43h 21.5 -111/-117 43.2h 1
Hard Rock 20.5 -115/-115 43h 20.5 -115/-115 43.2h 1
theScore 19.5 -135/+105 43h 19.5 -135/+105 43.2h 1
 — 21.5-111 / -117 19.5 – 21.5low theScore O -135high DraftKings U -117 19.5 – 21.5low theScore O -135high DraftKings U -117 87.04 books 17.2 43.4% 49.4% -6.0 Under -117 pending — —
2026-10-12 00:20BAL @ ATL Bijan Robinson
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 21.5 -114/-114 43h 21.5 -114/-114 43.2h 1
Hard Rock 20.5 -115/-115 43h 20.5 -115/-115 43.2h 1
theScore 19.5 -135/+105 43h 19.5 -135/+105 43.2h 1
 — 21.5-114 / -114 19.5 – 21.5low theScore O -135high DraftKings U -114 19.5 – 21.5low theScore O -135high DraftKings U -114 88.53 books 17.5 43.8% 50.0% -6.2 Under -114 pending — —
2026-10-11 20:25DET @ ARI Tyler Allgeier
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 5.5 -112/-116 39h 5.5 -112/-116 39.3h 1
Hard Rock 4.5 -125/-105 39h 4.5 -125/-105 39.3h 1
 — 5.5-112 / -116 4.5 – 5.5low Hard Rock O -125high DraftKings U -116 4.5 – 5.5low Hard Rock O -125high DraftKings U -116 none — — 49.6% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 20:25DET @ ARI Jeremiyah Love
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 9.5 -113/-115 39h 9.5 -113/-115 39.3h 1
Hard Rock 9.5 -110/-120 39h 9.5 -110/-120 39.3h 1
 — 9.5-113 / -115 9.5 – 9.5low Hard Rock O -110high DraftKings U -115 9.5 – 9.5low Hard Rock O -110high DraftKings U -115 47.52 books 11.3 57.9% 49.8% +8.1 Over -113 pending — —
2026-10-11 20:25DET @ ARI Jahmyr Gibbs
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 23.5 -118/-109 39h 23.5 -118/-109 39.3h 1
Hard Rock 22.5 -110/-120 39h 22.5 -110/-120 39.3h 1
theScore 23.5 -120/-110 39h 23.5 -120/-110 39.3h 1
 — 23.5-118 / -109 22.5 – 23.5low Hard Rock O -110high DraftKings U -109 22.5 – 23.5low Hard Rock O -110high DraftKings U -109 91.53 books 18.1 42.6% 50.9% -8.3 Under -109 pending — —
2026-10-11 20:25SF @ SEA Emanuel Wilson
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 13.5 -117/-111 39h 13.5 -117/-111 39.3h 1
Hard Rock 13.5 -110/-120 39h 13.5 -110/-120 39.3h 1
 — 13.5-117 / -111 13.5 – 13.5low Hard Rock O -110high DraftKings U -111 13.5 – 13.5low Hard Rock O -110high DraftKings U -111 none — — 50.6% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 20:25SF @ SEA Deebo Samuel
1 book
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 0.5 +130/-169 39h 0.5 +130/-169 39.3h 1
 — 0.5+130 / -169 0.5DraftKings · +130 / -169 0.5DraftKings · +130 / -169 none — — 40.9% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 20:25SF @ SEA Christian McCaffrey
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 12.5 -108/-119 39h 12.5 -108/-119 39.3h 1
Hard Rock 11.5 -115/-115 39h 11.5 -115/-115 39.3h 1
theScore 14.5 +120/-155 39h 14.5 +120/-155 39.3h 1
 — 12.5-108 / -119 11.5 – 14.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -155 11.5 – 14.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -155 53.52 books 12.7 50.4% 48.9% +1.6 Over -108 pending — —
2026-10-11 20:25SF @ SEA Brock Purdy
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 2.5 -118/-110 39h 2.5 -118/-110 39.3h 1
Hard Rock 2.5 -115/-115 39h 2.5 -115/-115 39.3h 1
 — 2.5-118 / -110 2.5 – 2.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -110 2.5 – 2.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -110 18.53 books 3.7 56.0% 50.8% +5.2 Over -118 pending — —
2026-10-11 20:05DEN @ LAC Justin Herbert
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 2.5 -105/-123 39h 2.5 -105/-123 39.0h 1
Hard Rock 2.5 -110/-120 39h 2.5 -110/-120 39.0h 1
 — 2.5-105 / -123 2.5 – 2.5low DraftKings O -105high Hard Rock U -120 2.5 – 2.5low DraftKings O -105high Hard Rock U -120 24.54 books 4.9 57.4% 48.1% +9.2 Over -105 pending — —
2026-10-11 20:05DEN @ LAC J.K. Dobbins
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 10.5 -114/-114 39h 10.5 -114/-114 39.0h 1
Hard Rock 10.5 -115/-115 39h 10.5 -115/-115 39.0h 1
 — 10.5-114 / -114 10.5 – 10.5low DraftKings O -114high DraftKings U -114 10.5 – 10.5low DraftKings O -114high DraftKings U -114 49.54 books 11.7 56.1% 50.0% +6.1 Over -114 pending — —
2026-10-11 20:05DEN @ LAC Bo Nix
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 0.5 -114/-113 39h 0.5 -114/-113 39.0h 1
Hard Rock 0.5 -105/-125 39h 0.5 -105/-125 39.0h 1
 — 0.5-114 / -113 0.5 – 0.5low Hard Rock O -105high DraftKings U -113 0.5 – 0.5low Hard Rock O -105high DraftKings U -113 15.55 books 2.9 64.8% 50.1% +14.7 Over -114 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CHI @ GB Tyson Bagent
1 book
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 0.5 +115/-149 36h 0.5 +115/-149 35.9h 1
 — 0.5+115 / -149 0.5DraftKings · +115 / -149 0.5DraftKings · +115 / -149 none — — 43.7% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00HOU @ TEN Tony Pollard
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 10.5 -122/-106 36h 10.5 -122/-106 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 10.5 -120/-110 36h 10.5 -120/-110 35.9h 1
theScore 9.5 -140/+110 36h 9.5 -140/+110 35.9h 1
 — 10.5-122 / -106 9.5 – 10.5low theScore O -140high DraftKings U -106 9.5 – 10.5low theScore O -140high DraftKings U -106 48.53 books 11.5 55.4% 51.6% +3.7 Over -122 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CLE @ NYJ Quinshon Judkins
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 14.5 -115/-112 36h 14.5 -115/-112 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 14.5 -110/-120 36h 14.5 -110/-120 35.9h 1
theScore 14.5 -115/-115 36h 14.5 -115/-115 35.9h 1
 — 14.5-115 / -112 14.5 – 14.5low Hard Rock O -110high DraftKings U -112 14.5 – 14.5low Hard Rock O -110high DraftKings U -112 59.55 books 11.8 43.7% 50.3% -6.6 Under -112 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CIN @ MIA Ollie Gordon II
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 11.5 -114/-113 36h 11.5 -114/-113 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 10.5 -115/-115 36h 10.5 -115/-115 35.9h 1
theScore 9.5 -140/+110 36h 9.5 -140/+110 35.9h 1
 — 11.5-114 / -113 9.5 – 11.5low theScore O -140high DraftKings U -113 9.5 – 11.5low theScore O -140high DraftKings U -113 45.54 books 10.8 47.7% 50.1% -2.4 Under -113 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CHI @ GB MarShawn Lloyd
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 5.5 -104/-125 36h 5.5 -104/-125 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 5.5 -105/-125 36h 5.5 -105/-125 35.9h 1
theScore 4.5 -130/+100 36h 4.5 -130/+100 35.9h 1
 — 5.5-104 / -125 4.5 – 5.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -125 4.5 – 5.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -125 none — — 47.9% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CIN @ MIA Malik Willis
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 4.5 -118/-110 36h 4.5 -118/-110 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 4.5 -120/-110 36h 4.5 -120/-110 35.9h 1
 — 4.5-118 / -110 4.5 – 4.5low DraftKings O -118high DraftKings U -110 4.5 – 4.5low DraftKings O -118high DraftKings U -110 none — — 50.8% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00MIN @ NO Kyler Murray
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 0.5 -111/-117 36h 0.5 -111/-117 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 1.5 -110/-120 36h 1.5 -110/-120 35.9h 1
 — 0.5-111 / -117 0.5 – 1.5low DraftKings O -111high Hard Rock U -120 0.5 – 1.5low DraftKings O -111high Hard Rock U -120 16.06 books 3.4 67.0% 49.4% +17.6 Over -111 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CHI @ GB Kaleb Johnson
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 7.5 -110/-118 36h 7.5 -110/-118 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 7.5 -115/-115 36h 7.5 -115/-115 35.9h 1
 — 7.5-110 / -118 7.5 – 7.5low DraftKings O -110high Hard Rock U -115 7.5 – 7.5low DraftKings O -110high Hard Rock U -115 none — — 49.2% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CHI @ GB Jordan Love
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 0.5 +220/-294 36h 0.5 +220/-294 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 0.5 +210/-300 36h 0.5 +210/-300 35.9h 1
 — 0.5+220 / -294 0.5 – 0.5low DraftKings O +220high DraftKings U -294 0.5 – 0.5low DraftKings O +220high DraftKings U -294 none — — 29.5% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00IND @ PIT Jonathan Taylor
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 20.5 -116/-112 36h 20.5 -116/-112 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 20.5 -115/-115 36h 20.5 -115/-115 35.9h 1
theScore 19.5 -130/+100 36h 19.5 -130/+100 35.9h 1
 — 20.5-116 / -112 19.5 – 20.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -112 19.5 – 20.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -112 87.56 books 17.3 44.7% 50.4% -5.7 Under -112 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00IND @ PIT Jaylen Warren
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 13.5 -118/-110 36h 13.5 -118/-110 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 13.5 -115/-115 36h 13.5 -115/-115 35.9h 1
theScore 13.5 -120/-110 36h 13.5 -120/-110 35.9h 1
 — 13.5-118 / -110 13.5 – 13.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -110 13.5 – 13.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -110 none — — 50.8% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00NYG @ WAS Jayden Daniels
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 4.5 -108/-120 36h 4.5 -108/-120 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 4.5 -115/-115 36h 4.5 -115/-115 35.9h 1
 — 4.5-108 / -120 4.5 – 4.5low DraftKings O -108high Hard Rock U -115 4.5 – 4.5low DraftKings O -108high Hard Rock U -115 30.54 books 6.1 53.6% 48.8% +4.8 Over -108 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00NYG @ WAS Jacory Croskey-Merritt
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 11.5 -116/-112 36h 11.5 -116/-112 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 11.5 -120/-110 36h 11.5 -120/-110 35.9h 1
theScore 9.5 -150/+115 36h 9.5 -150/+115 35.9h 1
 — 11.5-116 / -112 9.5 – 11.5low theScore O -150high Hard Rock U -110 9.5 – 11.5low theScore O -150high Hard Rock U -110 55.55 books 13.2 56.8% 50.4% +6.4 Over -116 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CLE @ NYJ Geno Smith
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 0.5 +156/-204 36h 0.5 +156/-204 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 0.5 +140/-185 36h 0.5 +140/-185 35.9h 1
 — 0.5+156 / -204 0.5 – 0.5low DraftKings O +156high Hard Rock U -185 0.5 – 0.5low DraftKings O +156high Hard Rock U -185 11.55 books 2.3 62.2% 36.8% +25.4 Over +156 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00LV @ NE Drake Maye
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 4.5 -120/-108 36h 4.5 -120/-108 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 4.5 -115/-115 36h 4.5 -115/-115 35.9h 1
 — 4.5-120 / -108 4.5 – 4.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -108 4.5 – 4.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -108 31.51 book 6.3 54.1% 51.2% +2.8 Over -120 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CLE @ NYJ Deshaun Watson
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 4.5 -104/-125 36h 4.5 -104/-125 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 3.5 -120/-110 36h 3.5 -120/-110 35.9h 1
 — 4.5-104 / -125 3.5 – 4.5low Hard Rock O -120high DraftKings U -125 3.5 – 4.5low Hard Rock O -120high DraftKings U -125 26.06 books 5.3 52.7% 47.9% +4.8 Over -104 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00IND @ PIT Daniel Jones
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 0.5 +166/-217 36h 0.5 +166/-217 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 0.5 +170/-240 36h 0.5 +170/-240 35.9h 1
 — 0.5+166 / -217 0.5 – 0.5low Hard Rock O +170high DraftKings U -217 0.5 – 0.5low Hard Rock O +170high DraftKings U -217 10.58 books 2.0 61.4% 35.4% +25.9 Over +166 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CHI @ GB D'Andre Swift
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 22.5 -113/-115 36h 22.5 -113/-115 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 22.5 -110/-120 36h 22.5 -110/-120 35.9h 1
theScore 22.5 -115/-115 36h 22.5 -115/-115 35.9h 1
 — 22.5-113 / -115 22.5 – 22.5low Hard Rock O -110high DraftKings U -115 22.5 – 22.5low Hard Rock O -110high DraftKings U -115 61.53 books 12.1 23.9% 49.8% -25.9 Under -115 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CIN @ MIA Chase Brown
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 14.5 -107/-121 36h 14.5 -107/-121 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 13.5 -120/-110 36h 13.5 -120/-110 35.9h 1
theScore 14.5 -105/-125 36h 14.5 -105/-125 35.9h 1
 — 14.5-107 / -121 13.5 – 14.5low Hard Rock O -120high DraftKings U -121 13.5 – 14.5low Hard Rock O -120high DraftKings U -121 67.53 books 13.4 46.9% 48.6% -1.7 Under -121 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00HOU @ TEN Cam Ward
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 0.5 +136/-177 36h 0.5 +136/-177 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 0.5 +140/-185 36h 0.5 +140/-185 35.9h 1
 — 0.5+136 / -177 0.5 – 0.5low Hard Rock O +140high DraftKings U -177 0.5 – 0.5low Hard Rock O +140high DraftKings U -177 none — — 39.9% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00NYG @ WAS Cam Skattebo
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 12.5 -112/-115 36h 12.5 -112/-115 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 13.5 -115/-115 36h 13.5 -115/-115 35.9h 1
theScore 14.5 +115/-150 36h 14.5 +115/-150 35.9h 1
 — 12.5-112 / -115 12.5 – 14.5low DraftKings O -112high theScore U -150 12.5 – 14.5low DraftKings O -112high theScore U -150 57.53 books 13.6 55.1% 49.7% +5.4 Over -112 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00HOU @ TEN C.J. Stroud
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 0.5 +146/-191 36h 0.5 +146/-191 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 0.5 +150/-200 36h 0.5 +150/-200 35.9h 1
 — 0.5+146 / -191 0.5 – 0.5low Hard Rock O +150high DraftKings U -191 0.5 – 0.5low Hard Rock O +150high DraftKings U -191 none — — 38.2% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00CLE @ NYJ Braelon Allen
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 16.5 -119/-109 36h 16.5 -119/-109 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 16.5 -120/-110 36h 16.5 -120/-110 35.9h 1
theScore 17.5 -105/-125 36h 17.5 -105/-125 35.9h 1
 — 16.5-119 / -109 16.5 – 17.5low DraftKings O -119high theScore U -125 16.5 – 17.5low DraftKings O -119high theScore U -125 69.55 books 13.8 44.3% 51.0% -6.7 Under -109 pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00MIN @ NO Alvin Kamara
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 6.5 -111/-117 36h 6.5 -111/-117 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 6.5 -120/-110 36h 6.5 -120/-110 35.9h 1
theScore 6.5 -110/-120 36h 6.5 -110/-120 35.9h 1
 — 6.5-111 / -117 6.5 – 6.5low theScore O -110high Hard Rock U -110 6.5 – 6.5low theScore O -110high Hard Rock U -110 none — — 49.4% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 17:00MIN @ NO Aaron Jones
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 17.5 -117/-111 36h 17.5 -117/-111 35.9h 1
Hard Rock 18.5 -115/-115 36h 18.5 -115/-115 35.9h 1
theScore 19.5 +105/-135 36h 19.5 +105/-135 35.9h 1
 — 17.5-117 / -111 17.5 – 19.5low DraftKings O -117high theScore U -135 17.5 – 19.5low DraftKings O -117high theScore U -135 71.55 books 14.2 43.6% 50.6% -7.0 Under -111 pending — —
2026-10-11 13:30PHI @ JAX Will Shipley
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 7.5 -116/-112 32h 7.5 -116/-112 32.4h 1
Hard Rock 7.5 -115/-115 32h 7.5 -115/-115 32.4h 1
theScore 7.5 -115/-115 32h 7.5 -115/-115 32.4h 1
 — 7.5-116 / -112 7.5 – 7.5low theScore O -115high DraftKings U -112 7.5 – 7.5low theScore O -115high DraftKings U -112 none — — 50.4% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 13:30PHI @ JAX Trevor Lawrence
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 0.5 +107/-139 32h 0.5 +107/-139 32.4h 1
Hard Rock 0.5 -105/-125 32h 0.5 -105/-125 32.4h 1
 — 0.5+107 / -139 0.5 – 0.5low DraftKings O +107high Hard Rock U -125 0.5 – 0.5low DraftKings O +107high Hard Rock U -125 none — — 45.4% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 13:30PHI @ JAX Jalen Hurts
2 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 3.5 -113/-115 32h 3.5 -113/-115 32.4h 1
Hard Rock 3.5 -115/-115 32h 3.5 -115/-115 32.4h 1
 — 3.5-113 / -115 3.5 – 3.5low DraftKings O -113high DraftKings U -115 3.5 – 3.5low DraftKings O -113high DraftKings U -115 none — — 49.8% — — pending — —
2026-10-11 13:30PHI @ JAX Bhayshul Tuten
3 books
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 16.5 -112/-115 32h 16.5 -112/-115 32.4h 1
Hard Rock 15.5 -115/-115 32h 15.5 -115/-115 32.4h 1
theScore 14.5 -135/+105 32h 14.5 -135/+105 32.4h 1
 — 16.5-112 / -115 14.5 – 16.5low theScore O -135high DraftKings U -115 14.5 – 16.5low theScore O -135high DraftKings U -115 56.52 books 13.6 39.7% 49.7% -10.0 Under -115 pending — —
How it's priced. Each book's main full-game over/under is devigged and shifted to a median (σ 31 yds); the consensus is the median across books. The fair Q1 distribution is that consensus times the distribution of a player's Q1 rushing yards over the market's full-game center, measured on 222 player-games from 2026 weeks 1–4 (full-game lines of 20+, before any Q1 rushing yards line was captured), in three tiers by center because role matters: under 35: median 20.0%, 32% empty; 35–58: median 23.7%, 7% empty; 58+: median 19.8%, 4% empty. Fitting this on history instead (each player's own average as the expectation) put the median Q1 share at 15.9% against 20.8% observed and would have called nearly every under a big edge. With ~74 rows per tier the distributions are lumpy, so expect noisy edges; frozen 2026-10-10, before any line was graded, and judged from week 5 on.
DraftKings record. Fixed before any game was graded (2026-10-10) and kept as it was: DK close = DraftKings' last snapshot before kickoff, devigged against itself; edge = model P(over) minus DraftKings'; 1 unit at DraftKings' price on the model's side. Shaded rows have an edge of 5+ points either way. Move = whether DraftKings moved toward the side the model preferred at its open.
Ranges. Low is the lowest line any book posts (the best number for an over), high the highest (best for an under); ties go to the better price. Open = each book's first quote we saw, latest = its last quote before kickoff.
Capture cadence. Lines are polled when first posted, at 48h and 24h before kickoff, then every 90 minutes inside 6h and every 30 minutes inside 2h. "First seen" is our first poll that found the line, which can trail the book's real open by up to 12 hours. Captured from 2026-10-10. Times are UTC.