NFL Watchlist
Games matching a pattern that might be an edge but isn't proven. Each flag freezes at kickoff and is graded at the closing line, so the live record is a clean forward test.
This week
No game-level flags in the next 8 days.
Low-line receptions Overs:
3 qualifying props right now (list).
Wong teaser legs:
3 this week on Wong Teasers.
Patterns
passed Wind unders
Under when the GFS MOS forecast (latest run at least 6 h before kickoff) is 15+ mph at kickoff. Outdoor or open-roof US stadiums.
- Past
- 226-174 (56.5%), ROI +9.7% (95% CI +0.3 to +19.0), n=406, 2006-25. +10.3% / +9.0% by half.
- Live
- No graded flags yet (1 awaiting a final score)
The idea came from a screen of the same games, so this is still a forward test.
prereg Low-line receptions Overs
Receptions lines of 1.5 or 2.5 where some book prices a side at 65%+: the Over at the best closing price.
- Past
- Over won 52.8% vs fair 44.0%, ROI +15.9% ± 8.2, n=248 (2026 weeks 1-8).
- Live
- No forward bets graded yet
Pre-registered: graded once after week 18; needs about +12% to pass. Record below is interim.
hunch Fade a backup QB, final week
Final regular-season week: bet against a team whose projected starter is not the QB who started most of its games (skipped when both teams swap).
- Past
- 56.7% ± 4.5 ATS, n=120, 2006-25 (54.4% / 58.7% by half), usual starter counted from earlier games only.
- Live
- No graded flags yet
Closing lines already price the QB news; z = 1.1 vs break-even.
hunch Back an eliminated team, final week
Final regular-season week: a team at .400 or worse vs an opponent at .450-.650: bet the worse team ATS.
- Past
- 57.5% ± 4.6 ATS, n=80, 2006-25 (54.5% / 61.1% by half).
- Live
- No graded flags yet
Weakest: the test was the opposite bet (fade the dead team) and lost; this is the reversal.
hunch West Coast team at night vs an East Coast team
Kickoff 8 pm ET or later, Pacific-time team vs Eastern-time team (either venue, no neutral sites): bet the Pacific team ATS.
- Past
- 57.8% ± 5.1 ATS, n=90, 2006-25 (62.1% / 55.7% by half).
- Live
- No graded flags yet
From the sleep-research body-clock idea; only ~4 games a season.
Wind forecasts
Outdoor games, GFS MOS sustained wind at the station nearest the stadium, at the forecast hour nearest kickoff. Flags at 15+ mph.
| Game | Wind | Total |
|---|---|---|
| KC at DENSun 4:25 PM | 14 mph | 41.5 |
| NE at MIASun 4:25 PM | 13 mph | 41.5 |
| PHI at WASSun 8:20 PM | 4 mph | 40.5 |
Receptions props that qualify now
Latest two-sided prices. The pre-registered bet uses each book's last price in the 6 hours before kickoff, so this list can change.
| Player | Line | Over | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre StevensonPatriots at Dolphins · Sun 4:25 PM | 2.5 | +116 | 53% |
| Hollywood BrownEagles at Commanders · Sun 8:20 PM | 2.5 | +170 | 33% |
| Saquon BarkleyEagles at Commanders · Sun 8:20 PM | 2.5 | +150 | 39% |
No pattern here has a proven edge. Hunches came from screening about 25 rules on 2006–25
history, so a few should look this good by chance. Rules and past records:
backtests/nfl_schedule_edges/FINDINGS.md, backtests/wind_unders/FINDINGS.md,
backtests/nfl_receptions_low_line/PREREG.md.