Justin Jefferson
WR · MIN
· ESPN
· Pro Football Reference
Box score by season
| Season | Team | G | Cmp | Att | Pass yds | TD | Int | Sacked | Rush | Rush yds | TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | TD | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MIN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -11 | 0 | 24 | 19 | 258 | 3 | ✓ matches |
| 2025 | MIN | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 141 | 84 | 1,048 | 2 | ✓ matches |
| 2024 | MIN | 17 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 154 | 103 | 1,533 | 10 | not checked |
| 2024 playoffs | MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 58 | 0 | |
| 2023 | MIN | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | 0 | 100 | 68 | 1,074 | 5 | not checked |
| 2022 | MIN | 17 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 184 | 128 | 1,809 | 8 | not checked |
| 2022 playoffs | MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 47 | 0 | |
| 2021 | MIN | 17 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 167 | 108 | 1,616 | 10 | not checked |
| 2020 | MIN | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 125 | 88 | 1,400 | 7 | not checked |
Official scoring from play-by-play. Regular-season totals for 2025, 2026 are compared with ESPN's after every rebuild (all players); earlier seasons aren't checked.
Advanced
Targets
141
qualifying bar 32
EPA/play
-0.091
177th of 197 · lg +0.191
Success rate
49.6%
104th of 197 · lg 50.0%
Yards/play
7.43
90th of 197 · lg 7.37
Explosive rate
8.5%
105th of 197 · lg 9.4%
Catch rate
59.6%
158th of 197 · lg 67.5%
Air yards/att
10.2
71st of 197 · lg 7.9
Turnover rate
7.1%
188th of 197 · lg 2.6%
TD rate
1.4%
173rd of 197 · lg 4.9%
Notable in 2025
His biggest gaps between one situation and the rest of his plays, beyond the league's own gap there (|z| ≥ 2.5). Many splits get checked, so some of these are luck; the badge says whether that kind of split repeats year to year.
- +0.64 EPA/target in the 1st quarter vs -0.30 the rest of the time (31 vs 110; league gap +0.01; z +2.9) mostly noise · r 0.04
- +0.62 EPA/target on 11+ to go vs -0.24 the rest of the time (24 vs 117; league gap -0.13; z +2.8) mostly noise · r -0.07
- +0.72 EPA/target with home / away: Neutral site vs -0.24 the rest of the time (22 vs 119; league gap +0.03; z +2.6)
Every split
EPA per target in each situation, the league in the same situation, and his rank among qualified players with at least 12 targets there (1 = best). "Repeats" is how much that split's player-to-player differences carry from one season to the next (2016–25); near zero means it describes the past and predicts little. Click a situation to filter all his numbers to it.
| Situation | Targets | EPA/play | Success | Yds/play | League EPA | Rank | Repeats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home / away Setting compare everyone → | |||||||
| Home | 64 | -0.189 | 50% | 7.4 | +0.199 | 178/193 | -0.02 |
| Away | 55 | -0.301 | 44% | 5.9 | +0.181 | 176/193 | -0.03 |
| Neutral site | 22 | +0.716 | 64% | 11.3 | +0.222 | 1/4 | — |
| Rest days Setting compare everyone → | |||||||
| Short week (≤5 days) | 16 | -0.103 | 50% | 6.5 | +0.229 | 21/25 | 0.19 |
| Normal (6–8 days) | 88 | -0.068 | 49% | 7.6 | +0.182 | 172/197 | -0.01 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | 20 | +0.255 | 55% | 7.4 | +0.220 | 14/25 | 0.21 |
| Off a bye (13+ days) | 10 | -0.362 | 50% | 7.9 | +0.216 | — | — |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| Indoors | 92 | -0.222 | 47% | 6.7 | +0.180 | 102/118 | 0.05 |
| Outdoors | 49 | +0.153 | 55% | 8.8 | +0.197 | 105/192 | 0.05 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| Under 40°F | 0 | — | — | — | +0.172 | — | 0.05 |
| 40–59°F | 20 | -0.075 | 50% | 6.8 | +0.172 | 69/87 | -0.05 |
| 60–79°F | 29 | +0.310 | 59% | 10.1 | +0.241 | 50/110 | -0.02 |
| 80°F+ | 0 | — | — | — | +0.171 | — | 0.01 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| 0–9 mph | 24 | -0.290 | 46% | 7.2 | +0.216 | 167/177 | -0.09 |
| 10–14 mph | 17 | +0.362 | 65% | 10.1 | +0.170 | 17/45 | 0.05 |
| 15+ mph | 8 | +1.039 | 62% | 10.6 | +0.105 | — | -0.05 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| Dry | 49 | +0.153 | 55% | 8.8 | +0.199 | 102/188 | 0.03 |
| Rain or snow | 0 | — | — | — | +0.157 | — | 0.03 |
| Score Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Trailing 9+ | 39 | -0.422 | 41% | 6.5 | +0.095 | 105/109 | -0.01 |
| Trailing 1–8 | 37 | -0.273 | 49% | 8.2 | +0.227 | 144/153 | 0.07 |
| Tied | 33 | +0.375 | 64% | 8.5 | +0.144 | 24/95 | 0.02 |
| Leading 1–8 | 21 | -0.196 | 33% | 5.3 | +0.239 | 79/92 | -0.03 |
| Leading 9+ | 11 | +0.492 | 73% | 9.2 | +0.316 | — | -0.05 |
| Win probability Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Win prob under 20% | 36 | -0.498 | 42% | 5.9 | +0.092 | 103/109 | -0.05 |
| Win prob 20–80% | 90 | +0.007 | 51% | 8.0 | +0.203 | 146/195 | -0.02 |
| Win prob over 80% | 15 | +0.294 | 60% | 7.5 | +0.295 | 37/64 | 0.09 |
| Quarter Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Q1 | 31 | +0.636 | 74% | 9.5 | +0.197 | 23/113 | 0.04 |
| Q2 | 51 | -0.005 | 45% | 8.0 | +0.199 | 113/150 | -0.01 |
| Q3 | 25 | -0.787 | 36% | 4.3 | +0.214 | 119/120 | -0.01 |
| Q4 | 34 | -0.372 | 44% | 7.0 | +0.156 | 143/150 | -0.03 |
| OT | 0 | — | — | — | +0.394 | — | — |
| Two-minute Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Last 2 min of half | 17 | +0.609 | 59% | 13.2 | +0.183 | 9/64 | 0.10 |
| Rest of game | 124 | -0.187 | 48% | 6.6 | +0.192 | 183/197 | 0.10 |
| Down Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| 1st down | 61 | -0.030 | 51% | 6.9 | +0.209 | 147/176 | 0.00 |
| 2nd down | 42 | +0.105 | 55% | 8.4 | +0.198 | 119/178 | 0.02 |
| 3rd down | 36 | -0.252 | 44% | 7.6 | +0.131 | 115/142 | -0.02 |
| 4th down | 2 | -3.189 | 0% | 0.0 | +0.400 | — | — |
| 3rd-down distance Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | 3 | -2.656 | 0% | 0.0 | +0.088 | — | — |
| 3rd & 4–6 | 10 | -0.308 | 50% | 7.4 | +0.200 | — | -0.27 |
| 3rd & 7+ | 23 | +0.087 | 48% | 8.7 | +0.110 | 34/61 | 0.02 |
| Field position Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| Own 20 and in | 13 | +0.510 | 62% | 10.3 | +0.190 | 4/23 | -0.04 |
| Own 50–21 | 70 | -0.116 | 56% | 8.8 | +0.188 | 162/193 | 0.04 |
| Opp 21–49 | 40 | -0.132 | 48% | 6.3 | +0.217 | 140/162 | 0.06 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | 18 | -0.339 | 22% | 2.4 | +0.140 | 54/62 | 0.05 |
| Formation Style compare everyone → | |||||||
| Shotgun | 109 | -0.110 | 46% | 7.1 | +0.165 | 167/196 | -0.02 |
| Under center | 32 | -0.029 | 62% | 8.5 | +0.311 | 61/71 | -0.02 |
| Tempo Style compare everyone → | |||||||
| Huddle | 125 | -0.045 | 50% | 7.5 | +0.194 | 166/197 | -0.00 |
| No huddle | 16 | -0.454 | 50% | 6.8 | +0.168 | 37/37 | -0.00 |
| Yards to go Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| 1–3 to go | 12 | -0.978 | 17% | 3.3 | +0.202 | 29/29 | 0.05 |
| 4–6 to go | 23 | -0.277 | 61% | 7.8 | +0.234 | 63/73 | 0.02 |
| 7–10 to go | 82 | -0.118 | 50% | 6.8 | +0.203 | 181/197 | 0.03 |
| 11+ to go | 24 | +0.621 | 54% | 11.4 | +0.081 | 11/61 | -0.07 |
| Pass depth Passing compare everyone → | |||||||
| Behind the line | 20 | -0.114 | 55% | 4.6 | -0.156 | 38/69 | 0.15 |
| Short (0–9) | 54 | -0.218 | 44% | 5.9 | +0.141 | 170/189 | 0.09 |
| Intermediate (10–19) | 46 | +0.226 | 65% | 10.3 | +0.435 | 85/111 | 0.07 |
| Deep (20+) | 21 | -0.438 | 24% | 7.6 | +0.472 | 54/55 | 0.01 |
| Pass direction Passing compare everyone → | |||||||
| Left | 50 | +0.086 | 52% | 7.4 | +0.177 | 119/187 | 0.04 |
| Middle | 28 | +0.121 | 68% | 13.0 | +0.283 | 72/108 | -0.02 |
| Right | 63 | -0.326 | 40% | 5.0 | +0.155 | 171/185 | 0.03 |
| Play action Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Play action | 31 | -0.038 | 65% | 9.2 | +0.299 | 90/110 | -0.03 |
| No play action | 110 | -0.107 | 45% | 6.9 | +0.160 | 168/196 | -0.03 |
| In / out of pocket Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| In pocket | 130 | -0.109 | 50% | 7.4 | +0.192 | 175/197 | -0.05 |
| Out of pocket | 11 | +0.120 | 45% | 7.4 | +0.183 | — | -0.05 |
| Blitz Defense (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Blitzed | 39 | -0.474 | 44% | 7.4 | +0.232 | 139/145 | 0.08 |
| No blitz | 102 | +0.055 | 52% | 7.5 | +0.174 | 138/197 | 0.08 |
| Pass rushers Defense (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| 3 or fewer rushers | 4 | -1.078 | 25% | 0.5 | +0.254 | — | — |
| 4 rushers | 96 | +0.094 | 53% | 7.8 | +0.169 | 126/197 | 0.12 |
| 5 rushers | 33 | -0.018 | 52% | 8.5 | +0.235 | 74/103 | 0.15 |
| 6+ rushers | 8 | -2.131 | 12% | 2.1 | +0.254 | — | — |
| Defenders in the box Defense (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Light box (6 or fewer) | 104 | -0.064 | 50% | 7.9 | +0.175 | 163/196 | -0.04 |
| 7 in the box | 28 | -0.152 | 46% | 6.2 | +0.240 | 85/98 | -0.05 |
| Stacked box (8+) | 9 | -0.221 | 56% | 6.0 | +0.242 | — | — |
| Screen Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Screen | 14 | +0.419 | 64% | 6.0 | -0.032 | 2/33 | 0.50 |
| Not a screen | 127 | -0.148 | 48% | 7.6 | +0.213 | 183/197 | 0.50 |
| Pre-snap motion Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Motion | 66 | -0.345 | 47% | 6.2 | +0.214 | 187/193 | 0.10 |
| No motion | 75 | +0.132 | 52% | 8.5 | +0.163 | 103/191 | 0.10 |
| RPO Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| RPO | 6 | +0.244 | 67% | 6.3 | +0.091 | — | — |
| Not an RPO | 135 | -0.106 | 49% | 7.5 | +0.193 | 178/197 | — |
| Pressure Defense (NGS) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Clean pocket | 110 | -0.001 | 51% | 7.6 | +0.256 | 171/197 | 0.01 |
| Pressured | 31 | -0.413 | 45% | 6.9 | -0.046 | 99/116 | 0.01 |
| Man / zone Defense (NGS) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Man | 38 | -0.573 | 34% | 4.3 | +0.211 | 148/151 | 0.03 |
| Zone | 103 | +0.086 | 55% | 8.6 | +0.181 | 131/197 | 0.03 |
| Coverage shell Defense (NGS) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Cover 0 | 6 | -2.436 | 17% | 1.2 | +0.266 | — | — |
| Cover 1 | 29 | -0.229 | 38% | 4.8 | +0.200 | 99/112 | 0.03 |
| 2-Man | 3 | -0.169 | 33% | 5.7 | +0.220 | — | — |
| Cover 2 | 33 | +0.056 | 55% | 9.8 | +0.137 | 77/127 | -0.09 |
| Cover 3 | 48 | +0.320 | 67% | 9.9 | +0.216 | 67/149 | 0.02 |
| Cover 4 | 15 | -0.132 | 33% | 4.1 | +0.210 | 23/26 | -0.08 |
| Cover 6 | 5 | -1.099 | 40% | 5.2 | +0.142 | — | — |
| Cover 9 | 2 | -0.438 | 0% | 0.0 | +0.159 | — | — |
| Combo | 0 | — | — | — | +0.206 | — | — |
| Blown coverage | 0 | — | — | — | +0.447 | — | — |
| Offensive personnel Scheme (NGS) compare everyone → | |||||||
| 11 | 86 | -0.129 | 50% | 8.0 | +0.188 | 176/193 | 0.05 |
| 12 | 36 | -0.284 | 50% | 5.5 | +0.194 | 86/98 | 0.04 |
| 21 | 0 | — | — | — | +0.110 | — | -0.17 |
| 13 | 3 | +0.043 | 33% | 3.3 | +0.263 | — | — |
| 22 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.103 | — | — |
| 10 | 0 | — | — | — | +0.236 | — | — |
| Other | 16 | +0.519 | 50% | 9.7 | +0.192 | 1/3 | — |
By season
| Season | Team | Targets | EPA/play | Total EPA | Success | Yds/play | Catch rate | aDOT | YAC/catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | MIN | 141 | -0.091 | -12.9 | 49.6% | 7.43 | 59.6% | 10.2 | 5.4 |
Definitions. QB plays are dropbacks: passes, sacks and scrambles (spikes left out). QB EPA doesn't charge the passer for a receiver's fumble after the catch. Rushing is designed runs only; receiving is EPA per target. EPA is about ±1.4 points a play, so a split of 50 plays carries roughly ±0.2 of luck.