Dalton Kincaid
TE · BUF
· ESPN
· Pro Football Reference
Box score by season
| Season | Team | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | TD | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BUF | 6 | 29 | 23 | 315 | 1 | ✓ matches |
| 2025 | BUF | 12 | 49 | 39 | 571 | 5 | ✓ matches |
| 2025 playoffs | BUF | 2 | 11 | 9 | 111 | 2 | |
| 2024 | BUF | 13 | 75 | 44 | 448 | 2 | not checked |
| 2024 playoffs | BUF | 3 | 9 | 6 | 71 | 0 | |
| 2023 | BUF | 16 | 91 | 73 | 673 | 2 | not checked |
| 2023 playoffs | BUF | 2 | 11 | 8 | 104 | 1 |
Official scoring from play-by-play. Regular-season totals for 2025, 2026 are compared with ESPN's after every rebuild (all players); earlier seasons aren't checked.
Advanced
Targets
29
qualifying bar 11
EPA/play
+0.339
61st of 192 · lg +0.194
Success rate
55.2%
53rd of 192 · lg 49.6%
Yards/play
10.86
18th of 192 · lg 7.35
Explosive rate
20.7%
13th of 192 · lg 9.0%
Catch rate
79.3%
30th of 192 · lg 67.2%
Air yards/att
9.3
80th of 192 · lg 8.0
Turnover rate
3.4%
130th of 192 · lg 2.6%
TD rate
3.4%
105th of 192 · lg 4.8%
Every split
EPA per target in each situation, the league in the same situation, and his rank among qualified players with at least 12 targets there (1 = best). "Repeats" is how much that split's player-to-player differences carry from one season to the next (2016–25); near zero means it describes the past and predicts little. Click a situation to filter all his numbers to it.
| Situation | Targets | EPA/play | Success | Yds/play | League EPA | Rank | Repeats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home / away Setting compare everyone → | |||||||
| Home | 13 | +0.316 | 62% | 10.8 | +0.199 | 37/84 | -0.02 |
| Away | 16 | +0.357 | 50% | 10.9 | +0.194 | 30/83 | -0.03 |
| Neutral site | 0 | — | — | — | +0.154 | — | — |
| Rest days Setting compare everyone → | |||||||
| Short week (≤5 days) | 8 | +0.899 | 75% | 11.9 | +0.273 | — | 0.19 |
| Normal (6–8 days) | 12 | -0.274 | 42% | 4.3 | +0.181 | 134/144 | -0.01 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | 3 | -0.570 | 33% | 12.7 | +0.245 | — | 0.21 |
| Off a bye (13+ days) | 0 | — | — | — | +0.221 | — | — |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| Indoors | 16 | +0.357 | 50% | 10.9 | +0.224 | 16/43 | 0.05 |
| Outdoors | 13 | +0.316 | 62% | 10.8 | +0.182 | 49/136 | 0.05 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| 60–79°F | 13 | +0.316 | 62% | 10.8 | +0.210 | 23/55 | -0.02 |
| 80°F+ | 0 | — | — | — | +0.213 | — | 0.01 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| 0–9 mph | 8 | +0.899 | 75% | 11.9 | +0.215 | — | -0.09 |
| 10–14 mph | 5 | -0.615 | 40% | 9.0 | +0.200 | — | 0.05 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| Dry | 13 | +0.316 | 62% | 10.8 | +0.190 | 45/115 | 0.03 |
| Rain or snow | 0 | — | — | — | +0.105 | — | 0.03 |
| Score Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Trailing 9+ | 1 | +1.068 | 100% | 14.0 | +0.194 | — | -0.01 |
| Trailing 1–8 | 11 | +0.092 | 36% | 11.1 | +0.179 | — | 0.07 |
| Tied | 6 | -0.350 | 33% | 4.7 | +0.213 | — | 0.02 |
| Leading 1–8 | 4 | +1.174 | 100% | 20.2 | +0.159 | — | -0.03 |
| Leading 9+ | 7 | +0.735 | 71% | 10.0 | +0.278 | — | -0.05 |
| Win probability Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Win prob under 20% | 0 | — | — | — | +0.185 | — | -0.05 |
| Win prob 20–80% | 22 | +0.213 | 50% | 11.1 | +0.191 | 62/130 | -0.02 |
| Win prob over 80% | 7 | +0.735 | 71% | 10.0 | +0.226 | — | 0.09 |
| Quarter Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Q1 | 8 | -0.117 | 25% | 5.1 | +0.150 | — | 0.04 |
| Q2 | 9 | +0.626 | 67% | 11.0 | +0.189 | — | -0.01 |
| Q3 | 6 | -0.303 | 50% | 11.0 | +0.189 | — | -0.01 |
| Q4 | 6 | +1.157 | 83% | 18.2 | +0.229 | — | -0.03 |
| OT | 0 | — | — | — | +0.439 | — | — |
| Two-minute Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Last 2 min of half | 5 | +0.479 | 80% | 12.2 | +0.133 | — | 0.10 |
| Rest of game | 24 | +0.310 | 50% | 10.6 | +0.206 | 57/155 | 0.10 |
| Down Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| 1st down | 10 | +0.610 | 70% | 13.7 | +0.229 | — | 0.00 |
| 2nd down | 14 | +0.409 | 57% | 8.1 | +0.185 | 18/47 | 0.02 |
| 3rd down | 5 | -0.399 | 20% | 13.0 | +0.138 | — | -0.02 |
| 4th down | 0 | — | — | — | +0.430 | — | — |
| 3rd-down distance Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | 1 | -1.170 | 0% | 1.0 | +0.162 | — | — |
| 3rd & 4–6 | 2 | +1.054 | 50% | 20.0 | +0.255 | — | -0.27 |
| 3rd & 7+ | 2 | -1.466 | 0% | 12.0 | +0.072 | — | 0.02 |
| Field position Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| Own 20 and in | 3 | +0.731 | 100% | 17.0 | +0.142 | — | -0.04 |
| Own 50–21 | 12 | +0.555 | 58% | 12.8 | +0.169 | 15/84 | 0.04 |
| Opp 21–49 | 9 | -0.070 | 44% | 9.2 | +0.226 | — | 0.06 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | 5 | +0.320 | 40% | 5.4 | +0.248 | — | 0.05 |
| Formation Style compare everyone → | |||||||
| Shotgun | 22 | +0.137 | 45% | 8.7 | +0.177 | 86/156 | -0.02 |
| Under center | 7 | +0.973 | 86% | 17.7 | +0.264 | — | -0.02 |
| Tempo Style compare everyone → | |||||||
| Huddle | 28 | +0.393 | 57% | 11.2 | +0.196 | 52/171 | -0.00 |
| No huddle | 1 | -1.170 | 0% | 1.0 | +0.179 | — | -0.00 |
| Yards to go Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| 1–3 to go | 2 | -0.878 | 0% | 0.5 | +0.228 | — | 0.05 |
| 4–6 to go | 5 | +0.833 | 60% | 14.8 | +0.269 | — | 0.02 |
| 7–10 to go | 19 | +0.296 | 63% | 11.8 | +0.204 | 56/113 | 0.03 |
| 11+ to go | 3 | +0.597 | 33% | 5.3 | +0.072 | — | -0.07 |
| Pass depth Passing compare everyone → | |||||||
| Behind the line | 4 | -0.027 | 50% | 6.2 | -0.214 | — | 0.15 |
| Short (0–9) | 11 | +0.061 | 55% | 5.8 | +0.173 | — | 0.09 |
| Intermediate (10–19) | 11 | +0.386 | 55% | 13.5 | +0.428 | — | 0.07 |
| Deep (20+) | 3 | +1.673 | 67% | 26.0 | +0.462 | — | 0.01 |
| Pass direction Passing compare everyone → | |||||||
| Left | 8 | +0.170 | 75% | 8.4 | +0.141 | — | 0.04 |
| Middle | 10 | +0.489 | 60% | 11.6 | +0.330 | — | -0.02 |
| Right | 11 | +0.325 | 36% | 12.0 | +0.173 | — | 0.03 |
| Play action Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Play action | 3 | +1.256 | 100% | 20.3 | +0.279 | — | -0.03 |
| No play action | 18 | +0.395 | 56% | 12.0 | +0.186 | 44/131 | -0.03 |
| In / out of pocket Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| In pocket | 17 | +0.537 | 59% | 12.7 | +0.207 | 28/146 | -0.05 |
| Out of pocket | 4 | +0.436 | 75% | 15.2 | +0.209 | — | -0.05 |
| Blitz Defense (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Blitzed | 8 | +0.009 | 62% | 12.0 | +0.184 | — | 0.08 |
| No blitz | 13 | +0.831 | 62% | 13.9 | +0.217 | 6/124 | 0.08 |
| Pass rushers Defense (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| 3 or fewer rushers | 3 | +1.067 | 67% | 13.0 | +0.274 | — | — |
| 4 rushers | 10 | +0.761 | 60% | 14.2 | +0.215 | — | 0.12 |
| 5 rushers | 4 | +0.124 | 50% | 19.0 | +0.203 | — | 0.15 |
| 6+ rushers | 4 | -0.106 | 75% | 5.0 | +0.136 | — | — |
| Defenders in the box Defense (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Light box (6 or fewer) | 12 | +0.027 | 50% | 8.5 | +0.182 | 83/112 | -0.04 |
| 7 in the box | 5 | +1.312 | 80% | 18.2 | +0.239 | — | -0.05 |
| Stacked box (8+) | 4 | +1.000 | 75% | 21.0 | +0.324 | — | — |
| Screen Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Screen | 1 | +0.057 | 100% | 7.0 | -0.098 | — | 0.50 |
| Not a screen | 20 | +0.541 | 60% | 13.5 | +0.239 | 33/149 | 0.50 |
| Pre-snap motion Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Motion | 15 | +0.741 | 67% | 12.3 | +0.240 | 9/92 | 0.10 |
| No motion | 6 | -0.039 | 50% | 15.3 | +0.166 | — | 0.10 |
| RPO Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| RPO | 2 | -0.226 | 50% | 3.5 | -0.103 | — | — |
| Not an RPO | 19 | +0.596 | 63% | 14.2 | +0.214 | 27/163 | — |
By season
| Season | Team | Targets | EPA/play | Total EPA | Success | Yds/play | Catch rate | aDOT | YAC/catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BUF | 29 | +0.339 | +9.8 | 55.2% | 10.86 | 79.3% | 9.3 | 6.0 |
Definitions. QB plays are dropbacks: passes, sacks and scrambles (spikes left out). QB EPA doesn't charge the passer for a receiver's fumble after the catch. Rushing is designed runs only; receiving is EPA per target. EPA is about ±1.4 points a play, so a split of 50 plays carries roughly ±0.2 of luck.