Dalton Kincaid
TE · BUF
· ESPN
· Pro Football Reference
Box score by season
| Season | Team | G | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | TD | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BUF | 6 | 29 | 23 | 315 | 1 | ✓ matches |
| 2025 | BUF | 12 | 49 | 39 | 571 | 5 | ✓ matches |
| 2025 playoffs | BUF | 2 | 11 | 9 | 111 | 2 | |
| 2024 | BUF | 13 | 75 | 44 | 448 | 2 | not checked |
| 2024 playoffs | BUF | 3 | 9 | 6 | 71 | 0 | |
| 2023 | BUF | 16 | 91 | 73 | 673 | 2 | not checked |
| 2023 playoffs | BUF | 2 | 11 | 8 | 104 | 1 |
Official scoring from play-by-play. Regular-season totals for 2025, 2026 are compared with ESPN's after every rebuild (all players); earlier seasons aren't checked.
Advanced
Targets
49
qualifying bar 32
EPA/play
+0.823
3rd of 197 · lg +0.191
Success rate
63.3%
14th of 197 · lg 50.0%
Yards/play
11.65
4th of 197 · lg 7.37
Explosive rate
26.5%
2nd of 197 · lg 9.4%
Catch rate
79.6%
28th of 197 · lg 67.5%
Air yards/att
9.5
79th of 197 · lg 7.9
Turnover rate
0.0%
1st of 197 · lg 2.6%
TD rate
10.2%
12th of 197 · lg 4.9%
Every split
EPA per target in each situation, the league in the same situation, and his rank among qualified players with at least 12 targets there (1 = best). "Repeats" is how much that split's player-to-player differences carry from one season to the next (2016–25); near zero means it describes the past and predicts little. Click a situation to filter all his numbers to it.
| Situation | Targets | EPA/play | Success | Yds/play | League EPA | Rank | Repeats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home / away Setting compare everyone → | |||||||
| Home | 32 | +1.134 | 75% | 13.8 | +0.199 | 1/193 | -0.02 |
| Away | 17 | +0.238 | 41% | 7.7 | +0.181 | 88/193 | -0.03 |
| Neutral site | 0 | — | — | — | +0.222 | — | — |
| Rest days Setting compare everyone → | |||||||
| Short week (≤5 days) | 6 | +0.831 | 67% | 11.0 | +0.229 | — | 0.19 |
| Normal (6–8 days) | 34 | +0.808 | 65% | 11.9 | +0.182 | 4/197 | -0.01 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | 2 | +1.245 | 50% | 14.0 | +0.220 | — | 0.21 |
| Off a bye (13+ days) | 3 | +0.513 | 33% | 7.7 | +0.216 | — | — |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| Indoors | 0 | — | — | — | +0.180 | — | 0.05 |
| Outdoors | 49 | +0.823 | 63% | 11.7 | +0.197 | 6/192 | 0.05 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| Under 40°F | 13 | +0.560 | 62% | 9.5 | +0.172 | 10/41 | 0.05 |
| 40–59°F | 10 | +1.248 | 80% | 14.9 | +0.172 | — | -0.05 |
| 60–79°F | 17 | +1.128 | 71% | 13.2 | +0.241 | 3/110 | -0.02 |
| 80°F+ | 9 | +0.155 | 33% | 8.2 | +0.171 | — | 0.01 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| 0–9 mph | 40 | +0.867 | 65% | 12.1 | +0.216 | 4/177 | -0.09 |
| 10–14 mph | 8 | +0.770 | 62% | 11.1 | +0.170 | — | 0.05 |
| 15+ mph | 1 | -0.503 | 0% | 0.0 | +0.105 | — | -0.05 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather compare everyone → | |||||||
| Dry | 40 | +0.874 | 62% | 12.4 | +0.199 | 2/188 | 0.03 |
| Rain or snow | 9 | +0.597 | 67% | 8.3 | +0.157 | — | 0.03 |
| Score Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Trailing 9+ | 11 | +0.726 | 73% | 10.9 | +0.095 | — | -0.01 |
| Trailing 1–8 | 11 | +1.329 | 82% | 15.8 | +0.227 | — | 0.07 |
| Tied | 10 | +1.042 | 60% | 11.2 | +0.144 | — | 0.02 |
| Leading 1–8 | 12 | +0.623 | 58% | 11.0 | +0.239 | 12/92 | -0.03 |
| Leading 9+ | 5 | -0.033 | 20% | 6.6 | +0.316 | — | -0.05 |
| Win probability Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Win prob under 20% | 8 | +0.798 | 75% | 13.1 | +0.092 | — | -0.05 |
| Win prob 20–80% | 33 | +0.853 | 61% | 11.6 | +0.203 | 6/195 | -0.02 |
| Win prob over 80% | 8 | +0.727 | 62% | 10.5 | +0.295 | — | 0.09 |
| Quarter Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Q1 | 18 | +0.785 | 56% | 10.9 | +0.197 | 11/113 | 0.04 |
| Q2 | 10 | +0.818 | 60% | 13.7 | +0.199 | — | -0.01 |
| Q3 | 12 | +0.995 | 75% | 11.5 | +0.214 | 1/120 | -0.01 |
| Q4 | 9 | +0.677 | 67% | 11.0 | +0.156 | — | -0.03 |
| OT | 0 | — | — | — | +0.394 | — | — |
| Two-minute Game state compare everyone → | |||||||
| Last 2 min of half | 4 | +0.632 | 50% | 10.0 | +0.183 | — | 0.10 |
| Rest of game | 45 | +0.840 | 64% | 11.8 | +0.192 | 3/197 | 0.10 |
| Down Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| 1st down | 18 | +0.655 | 67% | 11.3 | +0.209 | 10/176 | 0.00 |
| 2nd down | 17 | +1.051 | 71% | 11.8 | +0.198 | 3/178 | 0.02 |
| 3rd down | 14 | +0.764 | 50% | 12.0 | +0.131 | 16/142 | -0.02 |
| 4th down | 0 | — | — | — | +0.400 | — | — |
| 3rd-down distance Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | 0 | — | — | — | +0.088 | — | — |
| 3rd & 4–6 | 5 | +0.689 | 60% | 11.4 | +0.200 | — | -0.27 |
| 3rd & 7+ | 9 | +0.805 | 44% | 12.3 | +0.110 | — | 0.02 |
| Field position Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| Own 20 and in | 5 | +1.062 | 80% | 13.4 | +0.190 | — | -0.04 |
| Own 50–21 | 23 | +0.703 | 57% | 12.6 | +0.188 | 13/193 | 0.04 |
| Opp 21–49 | 13 | +0.875 | 62% | 11.2 | +0.217 | 12/162 | 0.06 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | 8 | +0.935 | 75% | 8.6 | +0.140 | — | 0.05 |
| Formation Style compare everyone → | |||||||
| Shotgun | 40 | +0.821 | 60% | 10.8 | +0.165 | 3/196 | -0.02 |
| Under center | 9 | +0.833 | 78% | 15.4 | +0.311 | — | -0.02 |
| Tempo Style compare everyone → | |||||||
| Huddle | 47 | +0.851 | 64% | 11.9 | +0.194 | 3/197 | -0.00 |
| No huddle | 2 | +0.161 | 50% | 6.0 | +0.168 | — | -0.00 |
| Yards to go Situation compare everyone → | |||||||
| 1–3 to go | 1 | +1.503 | 100% | 19.0 | +0.202 | — | 0.05 |
| 4–6 to go | 9 | +0.616 | 56% | 9.1 | +0.234 | — | 0.02 |
| 7–10 to go | 33 | +0.763 | 64% | 11.2 | +0.203 | 8/197 | 0.03 |
| 11+ to go | 6 | +1.352 | 67% | 17.0 | +0.081 | — | -0.07 |
| Pass depth Passing compare everyone → | |||||||
| Behind the line | 6 | +0.556 | 67% | 11.3 | -0.156 | — | 0.15 |
| Short (0–9) | 15 | +0.381 | 53% | 7.0 | +0.141 | 33/189 | 0.09 |
| Intermediate (10–19) | 22 | +1.192 | 73% | 15.0 | +0.435 | 5/111 | 0.07 |
| Deep (20+) | 6 | +0.845 | 50% | 11.5 | +0.472 | — | 0.01 |
| Pass direction Passing compare everyone → | |||||||
| Left | 20 | +0.652 | 55% | 12.2 | +0.177 | 12/187 | 0.04 |
| Middle | 12 | +1.244 | 75% | 12.8 | +0.283 | 5/108 | -0.02 |
| Right | 17 | +0.728 | 65% | 10.2 | +0.155 | 8/185 | 0.03 |
| Play action Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Play action | 12 | +0.777 | 75% | 13.5 | +0.299 | 16/110 | -0.03 |
| No play action | 37 | +0.838 | 59% | 11.1 | +0.160 | 3/196 | -0.03 |
| In / out of pocket Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| In pocket | 45 | +0.849 | 64% | 11.9 | +0.192 | 3/197 | -0.05 |
| Out of pocket | 4 | +0.533 | 50% | 8.8 | +0.183 | — | -0.05 |
| Blitz Defense (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Blitzed | 14 | +1.059 | 79% | 15.6 | +0.232 | 5/145 | 0.08 |
| No blitz | 35 | +0.729 | 57% | 10.1 | +0.174 | 4/197 | 0.08 |
| Pass rushers Defense (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| 3 or fewer rushers | 4 | +1.860 | 75% | 18.0 | +0.254 | — | — |
| 4 rushers | 32 | +0.720 | 59% | 10.2 | +0.169 | 5/197 | 0.12 |
| 5 rushers | 11 | +0.588 | 64% | 11.8 | +0.235 | — | 0.15 |
| 6+ rushers | 1 | +1.503 | 100% | 19.0 | +0.254 | — | — |
| Defenders in the box Defense (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Light box (6 or fewer) | 43 | +0.850 | 63% | 11.6 | +0.175 | 4/196 | -0.04 |
| 7 in the box | 5 | +0.472 | 60% | 9.8 | +0.240 | — | -0.05 |
| Stacked box (8+) | 1 | +1.435 | 100% | 23.0 | +0.242 | — | — |
| Screen Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Screen | 6 | +0.556 | 67% | 11.3 | -0.032 | — | 0.50 |
| Not a screen | 43 | +0.860 | 63% | 11.7 | +0.213 | 2/197 | 0.50 |
| Pre-snap motion Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Motion | 28 | +1.260 | 79% | 15.2 | +0.214 | 1/193 | 0.10 |
| No motion | 21 | +0.241 | 43% | 6.9 | +0.163 | 77/191 | 0.10 |
| RPO Scheme (FTN) compare everyone → | |||||||
| RPO | 5 | +0.914 | 80% | 13.4 | +0.091 | — | — |
| Not an RPO | 44 | +0.813 | 61% | 11.5 | +0.193 | 3/197 | — |
| Pressure Defense (NGS) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Clean pocket | 43 | +0.910 | 67% | 12.2 | +0.256 | 4/197 | 0.01 |
| Pressured | 6 | +0.204 | 33% | 7.8 | -0.046 | — | 0.01 |
| Man / zone Defense (NGS) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Man | 18 | +0.751 | 67% | 9.9 | +0.211 | 10/151 | 0.03 |
| Zone | 31 | +0.865 | 61% | 12.7 | +0.181 | 3/197 | 0.03 |
| Coverage shell Defense (NGS) compare everyone → | |||||||
| Cover 0 | 3 | +0.041 | 33% | 1.7 | +0.266 | — | — |
| Cover 1 | 15 | +0.893 | 73% | 11.5 | +0.200 | 8/112 | 0.03 |
| 2-Man | 0 | — | — | — | +0.220 | — | — |
| Cover 2 | 17 | +1.053 | 65% | 13.2 | +0.137 | 4/127 | -0.09 |
| Cover 3 | 8 | +0.563 | 62% | 12.8 | +0.216 | — | 0.02 |
| Cover 4 | 2 | +0.625 | 50% | 9.0 | +0.210 | — | -0.08 |
| Cover 6 | 2 | +1.055 | 50% | 13.0 | +0.142 | — | — |
| Cover 9 | 1 | -0.823 | 0% | 0.0 | +0.159 | — | — |
| Combo | 1 | +1.872 | 100% | 22.0 | +0.206 | — | — |
| Blown coverage | 0 | — | — | — | +0.447 | — | — |
| Offensive personnel Scheme (NGS) compare everyone → | |||||||
| 11 | 34 | +0.859 | 65% | 11.6 | +0.188 | 4/193 | 0.05 |
| 12 | 7 | +0.404 | 43% | 8.9 | +0.194 | — | 0.04 |
| 21 | 1 | +3.197 | 100% | 28.0 | +0.110 | — | -0.17 |
| 13 | 4 | +1.065 | 100% | 15.2 | +0.263 | — | — |
| 22 | 0 | — | — | — | -0.103 | — | — |
| 10 | 0 | — | — | — | +0.236 | — | — |
| Other | 3 | +0.276 | 33% | 8.7 | +0.192 | — | — |
By season
| Season | Team | Targets | EPA/play | Total EPA | Success | Yds/play | Catch rate | aDOT | YAC/catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | BUF | 49 | +0.823 | +40.3 | 63.3% | 11.65 | 79.6% | 9.5 | 6.6 |
Definitions. QB plays are dropbacks: passes, sacks and scrambles (spikes left out). QB EPA doesn't charge the passer for a receiver's fumble after the catch. Rushing is designed runs only; receiving is EPA per target. EPA is about ±1.4 points a play, so a split of 50 plays carries roughly ±0.2 of luck.