Pick'em Mode
Week 4Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
95
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
69.9%
Percentage
9-6
Record
1
Pending
16
pts
NO
BUF *
NO -15.5
Lock
Correct
+16 pts
19 - 31
15
pts
CLE
DET *
CLE -10.0
Strong favorite
Correct
+15 pts
10 - 34
14
pts
CIN
DEN *
CIN -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+14 pts
3 - 28
13
pts
TEN
HOU *
TEN -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+13 pts
0 - 26
12
pts
GB *
DAL
DAL -7.0
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
40 - 40
11
pts
LAC *
NYG
NYG -6.0
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
18 - 21
10
pts
CAR
NE *
CAR -5.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+10 pts
13 - 42
9
pts
IND
LA *
IND -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+9 pts
20 - 27
8
pts
JAX
SF *
JAX -3.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
26 - 21
7
pts
PHI *
TB
TB -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
31 - 25
6
pts
NYJ
MIA *
NYJ -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
21 - 27
5
pts
WAS
ATL *
WAS -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
27 - 34
4
pts
MIN *
PIT
PIT -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
21 - 24
3
pts
BAL *
KC
KC -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 37
2
pts
CHI
LV *
CHI -1.5
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
25 - 24
1
pts
SEA
ARI *
ARI -1.5
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
23 - 20
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.