Pick'em Mode
Week 1Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
106
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
77.9%
Percentage
12-4
Record
0
Pending
16
pts
NE
CIN *
NE -8.0
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
16 - 10
15
pts
ARI
BUF *
ARI -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+15 pts
28 - 34
14
pts
DEN
SEA *
DEN -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+14 pts
20 - 26
13
pts
LA
DET *
LA -5.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+13 pts
20 - 26
12
pts
TEN
CHI *
TEN -4.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+12 pts
17 - 24
11
pts
WAS
TB *
WAS -4.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+11 pts
20 - 37
10
pts
PIT
ATL *
PIT -4.0
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
18 - 10
9
pts
CAR
NO *
CAR -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+9 pts
10 - 47
8
pts
JAX
MIA *
JAX -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+8 pts
17 - 20
7
pts
NYJ
SF *
NYJ -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
19 - 32
6
pts
LV
LAC *
LV -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
10 - 22
5
pts
BAL
KC *
BAL -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
20 - 27
4
pts
HOU *
IND
IND -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+4 pts
29 - 27
3
pts
DAL
CLE *
DAL -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
33 - 17
2
pts
GB
PHI *
GB -2.0
Toss-up
Correct
+2 pts
29 - 34
1
pts
MIN
NYG *
NYG -1.0
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 6
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.