Pick'em Mode

Week 1
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
106
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
77.9%
Percentage
12-4
Record
0
Pending
16
pts
NE NE
@
CIN CIN *
2024-09-08 13:00 Favorite
NE -8.0
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
16 - 10
15
pts
ARI ARI
@
BUF BUF *
2024-09-08 13:00 Favorite
ARI -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+15 pts
28 - 34
14
pts
DEN DEN
@
SEA SEA *
2024-09-08 16:05 Favorite
DEN -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+14 pts
20 - 26
13
pts
LA LA
@
DET DET *
2024-09-08 20:20 Favorite
LA -5.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+13 pts
20 - 26
12
pts
TEN TEN
@
CHI CHI *
2024-09-08 13:00 Favorite
TEN -4.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+12 pts
17 - 24
11
pts
WAS WAS
@
TB TB *
2024-09-08 16:25 Favorite
WAS -4.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+11 pts
20 - 37
10
pts
PIT PIT
@
ATL ATL *
2024-09-08 13:00 Favorite
PIT -4.0
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
18 - 10
9
pts
CAR CAR
@
NO NO *
2024-09-08 13:00 Favorite
CAR -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+9 pts
10 - 47
8
pts
JAX JAX
@
MIA MIA *
2024-09-08 13:00 Favorite
JAX -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+8 pts
17 - 20
7
pts
NYJ NYJ
@
SF SF *
2024-09-09 20:15 Favorite
NYJ -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
19 - 32
6
pts
LV LV
@
LAC LAC *
2024-09-08 16:05 Favorite
LV -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
10 - 22
5
pts
BAL BAL
@
KC KC *
2024-09-05 20:20 Favorite
BAL -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
20 - 27
4
pts
HOU HOU *
@
IND IND
2024-09-08 13:00 Favorite
IND -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+4 pts
29 - 27
3
pts
DAL DAL
@
CLE CLE *
2024-09-08 16:25 Model
DAL -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
33 - 17
2
pts
GB GB
@
PHI PHI *
2024-09-06 20:15 Model
GB -2.0
Toss-up
Correct
+2 pts
29 - 34
1
pts
MIN MIN
@
NYG NYG *
2024-09-08 13:00 Model
NYG -1.0
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 6

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.