Pick'em Mode

Week 18
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
104
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
76.5%
Percentage
12-4
Record
0
Pending
16
pts
CLE CLE
@
BAL BAL *
2025-01-04 16:30 Favorite
CLE -19.5
Lock
Correct
+16 pts
10 - 35
15
pts
NO NO
@
TB TB *
2025-01-05 13:00 Favorite
NO -14.5
Lock
Correct
+15 pts
19 - 27
14
pts
KC KC
@
DEN DEN *
2025-01-05 16:25 Favorite
KC -10.5
Strong favorite
Correct
+14 pts
0 - 38
13
pts
CHI CHI
@
GB GB *
2025-01-05 13:00 Favorite
CHI -10.0
Strong favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 22
12
pts
CAR CAR
@
ATL ATL *
2025-01-05 13:00 Favorite
CAR -7.5
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
44 - 38
11
pts
SEA SEA *
@
LA LA
2025-01-05 16:25 Favorite
LA -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+11 pts
30 - 25
10
pts
LAC LAC *
@
LV LV
2025-01-05 16:25 Favorite
LV -7.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+10 pts
34 - 20
9
pts
WAS WAS *
@
DAL DAL
2025-01-05 13:00 Favorite
DAL -7.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+9 pts
23 - 19
8
pts
SF SF
@
ARI ARI *
2025-01-05 16:25 Favorite
SF -4.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+8 pts
24 - 47
7
pts
JAX JAX
@
IND IND *
2025-01-05 13:00 Favorite
JAX -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
23 - 26
6
pts
NYG NYG
@
PHI PHI *
2025-01-05 13:00 Favorite
NYG -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
13 - 20
5
pts
MIN MIN
@
DET DET *
2025-01-05 20:20 Favorite
MIN -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
9 - 31
4
pts
BUF BUF *
@
NE NE
2025-01-05 13:00 Favorite
NE -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
16 - 23
3
pts
HOU HOU
@
TEN TEN *
2025-01-05 13:00 Model
HOU -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
23 - 14
2
pts
CIN CIN *
@
PIT PIT
2025-01-04 20:00 Model
PIT -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+2 pts
19 - 17
1
pts
MIA MIA
@
NYJ NYJ *
2025-01-05 16:25 Model
MIA -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
20 - 32

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.