Pick'em Mode

Week 19
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
15
Points Earned
21
Points Possible
71.4%
Percentage
3-3
Record
0
Pending
2024 Season
← Week 18 Week 19 Week 20 →
Full Predictions
6
pts
PIT PIT
@
BAL BAL *
2025-01-11 20:00 Favorite
PIT -9.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+6 pts
14 - 28
5
pts
DEN DEN
@
BUF BUF *
2025-01-12 13:00 Favorite
DEN -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+5 pts
7 - 31
4
pts
GB GB
@
PHI PHI *
2025-01-12 16:30 Favorite
GB -5.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+4 pts
10 - 22
3
pts
WAS WAS
@
TB TB *
2025-01-12 20:00 Favorite
WAS -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
23 - 20
2
pts
LAC LAC *
@
HOU HOU
2025-01-11 16:30 Favorite
HOU -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
12 - 32
1
pts
MIN MIN *
@
LA LA
2025-01-13 20:00 Model
LA -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
9 - 27

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-6 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 6 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.