Pick'em Mode

Week 14
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
72
Points Earned
105
Points Possible
68.6%
Percentage
10-4
Record
0
Pending
14
pts
LA LA *
@
ARI ARI
2025-12-07 16:25 Favorite
ARI -9.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+14 pts
45 - 17
13
pts
DEN DEN *
@
LV LV
2025-12-07 16:05 Favorite
LV -8.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+13 pts
24 - 17
12
pts
NO NO
@
TB TB *
2025-12-07 13:00 Favorite
NO -7.5
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 20
11
pts
SEA SEA *
@
ATL ATL
2025-12-07 13:00 Favorite
ATL -7.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+11 pts
37 - 9
10
pts
CHI CHI
@
GB GB *
2025-12-07 16:25 Favorite
CHI -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+10 pts
21 - 28
9
pts
CIN CIN
@
BUF BUF *
2025-12-07 13:00 Favorite
CIN -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+9 pts
34 - 39
8
pts
PIT PIT
@
BAL BAL *
2025-12-07 13:00 Favorite
PIT -5.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
27 - 22
7
pts
HOU HOU
@
KC KC *
2025-12-07 20:20 Favorite
HOU -4.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 10
6
pts
TEN TEN
@
CLE CLE *
2025-12-07 13:00 Favorite
TEN -4.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
31 - 29
5
pts
DAL DAL
@
DET DET *
2025-12-04 20:15 Favorite
DAL -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
30 - 44
4
pts
IND IND
@
JAX JAX *
2025-12-07 13:00 Model
JAX -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+4 pts
19 - 36
3
pts
WAS WAS
@
MIN MIN *
2025-12-07 13:00 Model
MIN -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+3 pts
0 - 31
2
pts
MIA MIA *
@
NYJ NYJ
2025-12-07 13:00 Model
NYJ -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+2 pts
34 - 10
1
pts
PHI PHI
@
LAC LAC *
2025-12-08 20:15 Model
LAC -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
19 - 22

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-14 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 14 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.